A simplified HEC-RAS hydraulic model was developed for the Lake Kegonsa outlet area to represent winter flow conditions. Thin, moderate, and thick ice-cover scenarios were applied to evaluate interactions between ice cover and channel hydraulics. Model results indicate reduced ice stability in channelized sections of the river, where under-ice velocities are highest. Large velocity gradients across cross sections, particularly under thicker ice conditions, suggest increased potential for weakened ice stability toward the channel center. 

• Velocity differences increase in more channelized sections of the river, leading to greater variation in ice stability across the channel.
  
  

• Higher under-ice velocities are observed under thinner ice conditions.
  
  

• Thicker ice cover results in higher water surface elevations due to reduced hydraulic conveyance.
  
  

• Ice stability risk varies by cross section, indicating that local channel shape strongly influences under-ice flow and ice conditions.

Crossing any frozen river or recreating on ice is risky. This data may be used as guidance to identify where the least risky crossing could be placed, if necessary, for potential trails or recreational use. For example, a less channelized upstream section may present lower risk compared to a downstream section with a large velocity gradient. Ice conditions can change rapidly, and on-site assessment is always necessary.