Research
Research Overview
My research aims to improve the ability of water managers and agricultural producers to address climatic risks that threaten the safe provision of water and food. Despite the common perception that the Eastern U.S. has abundant water resources, 26% of the state’s rivers are expected to experience a significant level of water stress by 2040. At the same time, high temperatures and erratic timing of rainfall already limit agricultural production, and these conditions are anticipated to worsen with climate change. These challenges are mirrored across the globe, where population growth and climate change present serious risks to water and food supplies.
My work addresses these challenges through two broad themes: 1) Climate Change Impacts and Resilience, which is aimed at developing innovative approaches to anticipate and prepare for climate change impacts, and 2) Water Use and Irrigation, which focuses on the ways that human behaviors and institutions influence water supply and quality. My integrated research and extension program seeks to develop and disseminate novel methods that can be used to improve agricultural and water resources management decisions in an uncertain future.
Current Projects
Climate Smart Irrigation and Nitrogen Management: Heavier and more erratic rainfall from climate change will be detrimental to crop yields and nutrient pollution to surface water bodies. Precision irrigation that reduces conditions of both excess and limited water can reduce these impacts, but more research is needed to quantify these benefits and encourage grower adoption. This USDA-funded project combines field trials, computational modeling, data analytics, and economic analysis to understand the agronomic, environmental, and economic benefits of precision irrigation and nitrogen management.
Climate Tipping Points in Socio-Environmental Systems: Transformative changes are needed to address the profound and rapid changes in the Earth's climate that we are currently experiencing. We are developing a conceptual framework for understanding tipping points that could result in transformative changes (both good and bad) in socio-environmental systems faced with increasing climatic hazards, with an emphasis on coastal communities facing sea level rise.
Agent-based modeling of migration and sea level rise: In this NSF-funded project, we are working with colleagues in VT's Geography, Civil Engineering, and Business Information Technology to understand how repeated flooding and sea level rise influences relocation behavior. We are using agent-based models to simulate how individual behaviors, as well as demographic differences in adaptive behaviors and capacities, impact regional-scale risk.
Selected Publications
Sangha, L., and Shortridge, J.E. (2023). Quantification of unreported water use for crop irrigation using publicly available agricultural data and reported irrigation withdrawals. Agricultural Water Management, 287 (108402).
Sangha, L., Shortridge, J.E., and Frame, W.H. (2023). The impact of nitrogen treatment and short-term weather forecast data in irrigation scheduling of corn and cotton on water and nutrient use efficiency in humid climates. Agricultural Water Management, 283 (108314).
McCarthy, M.M., Brogan, C., Kleiner, J., Burgholzer, R., Shortridge, J.E., and Scott, D. (2022). Estimating facility-level monthly water consumption of commercial, industrial, municipal, and thermoelectric users in Virginia. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 58 (6).
Reis, J. and Shortridge, J.E. (2022). Robust decision outcomes with induced correlations in climatic and economic parameters. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 27 (7).
Paoletti, J.M. and Shortridge, J.E. (2020) Improved representation of uncertainty in farm-level financial cost-benefit analyses of supplemental irrigation in humid regions. Agricultural Water Management. 239, 106245.
Shortridge, J.E. and DiCarlo, M.F. (2020) Characterizing trends, variability, and statistical drivers of multi-sectoral water withdrawals for statewide planning. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. 146 (3).
Shortridge, J.E. (2019) Observed trends in daily rainfall variability result in more severe climate change impacts to agriculture. Climatic Change. 157, 429–444.
Reis, J. and Shortridge, J.E. (2019) Impact of uncertainty parameter distribution on robust decision making outcomes for climate change adaptation under deep uncertainty. Risk Analysis. 40, 494-511.
Shortridge, J.E. and Zaitchik, B.F. (2018) Characterizing climate change risks by linking robust decision frameworks and uncertain probabilistic projections. Climatic Change 151 (3-4), 525 - 539.
Shortridge, J.E., Guikema, S.D., and Zaitchik, B.F. (2017) Robust decision making in data scarce contexts: addressing data and model limitations for infrastructure planning under transient climate change. Climatic Change. 140 (2), 323-337.
Shortridge, J.E., Guikema, S.D, and Zaitchik, B.F. (2016) Machine learning methods for empirical streamflow simulation: a comparison of model accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty in seasonal watersheds. Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences 20, 2611-2628. doi:10.5194/hess-20-2611-2016.
Shortridge, J.E., and Guikema, S.D. (2016) Scenario discovery with multiple criteria: an evaluation of the robust decision making framework for climate change adaptation. Risk Analysis. 36 (12), 2298-2312.