Working Papers 

Job Market Paper

Lead Poisoning from Relocation of Lead-Acid Battery Production for Electric Vehicles from China to Bangladesh, with Amrita Kundu and Erica Plambeck 

This paper investigates the implications of the pollution haven hypothesis in the context of lead-acid battery outsourcing from China to Bangladesh and its impact on maternal health, measured by terminated pregnancies. Leveraging a quasi-experimental design, we exploit the natural variation in exposure to used lead-acid battery (ULAB) recycling and smelting operations in Bangladesh to examine the effects on the occurance of terminated pregnancies. Using georeferenced data from ULAB facilities from Pure Earth’s Toxic Site Identification Program (TSIP) and Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) datasets, we find robust evidence that the proximity to ULAB facilities significantly increases the likelihood of terminated pregnancies among women. Using a standard difference-in-difference methodology, our findings indicate that women who reside in close proximity to ULAB facilities experience a 5-6% higher rate of terminated pregnancies compared to those living farther away. Our findings contribute to the pollution haven effect and hypothesis literature, providing empirical support for the detrimental health consequences associated with the relocation of pollution-intensive industries. Moreover, we shed light on the underexplored area of maternal health outcomes related to lead exposure, highlighting the urgent need for stricter regulations and sustainable practices in the battery manufacturing industry. 

Dishonesty and Public Goods Provision: A Tale of Tax-Evading Politicians

coverage -  World Bank Development Impact  

Presented at: 

19th Midwest International Economic Development Conference (MIEDC), University of Minnesota, 2022;

Pacific Conference for Development Economics (PacDev), UC-Berkeley, 2020;

Southern Economic Association (SEA) 90th Annual Meeting, 2020;

Urban Economics Association (UEA), Federal Reserve Bank, Philadelphia, 2019;

Young Economists Symposium (YES), New York University, 2018;

Elected politicians are instrumental in providing public goods to their constituencies. On one hand, dishonest politicians can expropriate public funds for personal use, thus reducing the funds available for public goods provision. On the other hand, through clientelistic and patronage politics, dishonest politicians can give appropriated funds back to citizens. I study how dishonest politicians affect public goods provision in their constituencies. To identify dishonest politicians, I determine whether they evaded income taxes conditional on their minimum earnings and occupation, using a unique dataset based on the asset disclosure and tax forms candidates submit prior to elections in Bangladesh. Directly comparing constituencies represented by dishonest and honest politicians will not reveal the causal effects on public goods provision and economic development, since constituencies that elect dishonest politicians may systematically differ from the ones that do not. I rely on close elections, in which a dishonest politician narrowly defeats an honest one, and a regression discontinuity design to examine the effects of dishonest politicians on public goods provision and economic progress. Between 2009-10 and 2014-15, I find that in sub-districts that narrowly elected dishonest politicians, 27.3% fewer households received social safety net benefits compared with sub-districts that narrowly elected honest politicians. To analyze the effect between 2014-15 and 2019-20, I use a number of health and infrastructure variables at the sub-district level to develop an index of public goods provision using principal component analysis. I find that constituencies with dishonest leaders have a 0.74 standard deviation lower index value than constituencies with honest leaders. Results are quantitatively similar under the choice of different bandwidths and are robust to various specifications. Furthermore, categorizing sub-districts by wealthy dishonest versus wealthy honest leaders, measured by politicians’ total assets above the mean value in 2014 -  compare long-term economic development, proxied by growth of nighttime light brightness. I find that sub-districts with wealthy dishonest leaders have 5.75% point lower growth in night-time light brightness. Using my own estimates to convert night-time light brightness to GDP growth, I find 0.94% lower yearly GDP growth per sub-district under wealthy dishonest leaders. To understand the mechanism, I provide evidence from sub-district-level budgets that show statistically significant lower constituency-wide expenditure by dishonest politicians. I also show empirically that public goods provision does not depend on the ability of politicians, as measured by years of education, and politicians’ honesty and ability are independent of each other. 

Applying a Theory of Change Framework for Developing a Successful Strategy to Reduce Pollution from Brick Kilns with Nina Brooks, Debashish Biswas, Sameer Maithel, Sonal Kumar, Mohammad Rofi Uddin, Shoeb Ahmed, Grant Miller, Mahbubur Rahman, Stephen P. Luby (Revise and Resubmit) (please request for the draft)

The South Asian brick industry is a major air pollution and greenhouse gas emitter, impacting climate and health. Despite previous efforts to address these issues, traditional brick kilns continue to dominate the sector. This study presents the results of a randomized controlled trial conducted in the Khulna Division of Bangladesh, aimed at reducing emissions and improving energy efficiency of traditional zigzag kilns. Findings revealed high demand for the intervention, with 65% of intervention kiln owners adopting the improved practices. The intervention led to significant reductions in fuel consumption, CO2 and PM2.5 emissions, along with improved brick quality, higher value of production, and lower fuel spending. These results demonstrate the potential for scalable solutions to address environmental and socio-economic challenges in the brick manufacturing industry.

Work in Progress 

Reducing Emissions and Air Pollution from the Informal Brick Sector: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Bangladesh with  Nina Brooks, Debashish Biswas, M. Rofi Uddin, Sameer Maithel, Shoeb Ahmed, Aprajit Mahajan, Grant Miller, Mahbubur Rahman, and Stephen P. Luby (draft coming soon)

I won 2022 Global Development Photo Contest Stanford King Center 

Listen to my Podcast Stanford 

Millions of people living in poverty are threatened by accelerating climate change and worsening air quality. In Bangladesh, brick kilns contribute 17% of the country’s annual CO2 emissions and 11% of PM2.5. The pollution released by these kilns worsens local air quality, health and agricultural productivity, and global climate. Reducing these emissions could generate large social benefits. Despite available low-cost improvements to kiln construction and operation – strikingly, that improve kiln profits while also reducing pollution – these practices are rarely adopted by traditional kiln owners in Bangladesh. These interventions can improve the efficiency of these traditional kilns. A properly constructed and operated improved zigzag kiln can reduce black carbon, CO2, and PM2.5 relative to standard operating practices. Working with existing traditional brick manufacturers to improve the energy efficiency of production provides an opportunity to achieve immediate reductions in air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, while also increasing kiln profits thus opening the door for further technology improvements in the sector. Despite available low-cost improvements to kiln construction and operation – strikingly, that improve kiln profits while also reducing pollution – these practices are rarely adopted by traditional kiln owners in Bangladesh. We enrolled 350 traditional zigzag kilns in Khulna Division in a randomized control trial that delivered intensive technical training on more efficient operating practices. Kilns which adopted the recommended practices had 22% lower coal use per lakh bricks, 21% lower CO2 emissions, 21% lower PM2.5 emissions, and achieved 90% Class I (best quality) relative to non-adopters. Overall, these results demonstrate that substantial reductions in emissions and air pollution among zigzag kilns are achievable and profitable.

Implementation Partners: ICDDRB, BUET, and Greentech

Funding: Stanford Impact Lab and JPAL (K-CAI)

AEA RCT Registry 

Profit motives, working conditions, and labor trafficking: A randomized controlled trial in Bangladesh’s brick kiln industry with Grant Miller, Sania Ashraf, Kim Singer Babiarz, Jessie Brunner, Debashish Biswas, Nina Brooks, Steve Luby, and  Aprajit Mahajan (Analysis ongoing)

The holy dip: Religion and the pollution of rivers and health outcomes in India with Kazuki Motohashi and Sheetal Sekhri (draft coming soon)  Slides 

Presentation: SEA, 2023, New Orleans (upcoming); Global Health Seminar, Stanford University (2023)

Religion is one of the most important aspects of human society. Around 85% of the world’s population follows some kind of organized religion (Schofield 2020). From the aspect of economic progress, religious practices often have a negative impact (Montero & Yang 2022, Yanagizawa-Drott 2015). However, religious activities increase religiosity – a form of social capital. In the economic literature, there is a gap in understanding the impact of religious activities on environmental pollution and on public health. There are two reasons behind the paucity of research on this issue – identification challenges and sensitivity around the subject. In our paper, we bridge this gap in the literature by applying a natural experiment to study the impact of the Kumbh Mela on river pollution and on public health in India. Kumbh Mela is a congregation of the Hindu religion and the biggest religious festival in human society. More than 100 million people gather for 55 days around the four major cities in India – Prayagraj (Allahabad), Haridwar, Trimbak (Nashik), and Ujjain every four years. The ritual involves bathing, cremation, and food consumption along with accommodation around the bank of the major three rivers in India. However, this generates an enormous amount of human and material waste, which poses a significant risk to the environment and public health. We use the difference in difference and event study specifications to causally measure the impact of Kumbh Mela on river pollution and on health indicators. We use the river station water quality data of Central Water Commission from 2000 to 2019 and merge that with Greenstone and Hanna’s (2014) dataset to get data from the 1990s. We use a 30-Kilometer buffer zone from the rivers and a 100-kilometer buffer zone from the Kumbh Mela districts to be in the sample of our analysis. We identify treatment water stations located downstream within Kumbh Mela districts based on district boundaries, GPS locations of stations, and elevation data (digital elevation model). Similarly, upstream water stations are used as control applying similar selection criteria. Within our study period, we have Kumbh Mela occurring every three years from 1989 (including the smaller congregations) till 2019 in the four major cities. Using the difference in difference specification (two-way fixed effects), we found a higher level of Fecal coliform (FCF) in the treatment districts, which is statistically and economically significant. To understand the effect on public health, we use the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 4 as it contains cluster-level GPS information of households. Using the same difference-in-difference and event-study specifications, we are finding some indications (with some noises) of a higher level of mortality in the treatment districts. Our analysis further shows that this higher level of mortality could be attributed to the higher level of diarrhea in the children of the treatment districts.

Does Trade with Multinationals induce Greener Production? Evidence from the Bangladesh Fashion Industry with Haruka Takayama, Kazuki Motohashi, and Kazi Iqbal

Fund recipient of Murata Science Foundation, Japan.

Fund recipient from IGC.

We study how responsible sourcing initiatives by multinational fashion companies affect the environmental efficiency of local Bangladeshi firms. While the ready-made garment and leather industries drive economic growth in Bangladesh, they also have some of the most environmentally inefficient production methods. These firms emit chemicals that severely deteriorate water quality and threaten Bangladeshis’ health. Recently, the global fashion industry has become more environmentally conscious due to pressure from consumers and activists. We hypothesize that trading with multinational buyers can lead local suppliers to adopt more environmentally-friendly practices. The government of Bangladesh (GoB) has set various environmental policies, such as the Bangladesh Environmental Conservation Act, to mitigate this environmental externality. However, enforcing these effluent standards on local firms is challenging: firms have little incentive to reduce their pollution levels, while the government has limited resources to ensure compliance. Our research will shed light on how foreign buyers can promote private enforcement of effluent standards on local firms, which contributes to the GoB's environmental policy formulation and leads to green economic growth. We empirically investigate how trading with multinational fashion companies affects local firms' environmental performance using a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) analysis. We compare the wastewater treatment performance of multinational suppliers and non-suppliers, exploiting the fact that local firms became suppliers to brand multinationals at different times. Our data come from a survey of local firms that captures firms' environmental activities, such as installing wastewater treatment plants. We supplement the survey data with administrative customs data and administrative water quality data. To our knowledge, this study will be the first rigorous analysis examining the impact of multinationals' responsible sourcing initiatives on environmental outcomes. Our research will inform future policy efforts to reduce industrial pollution in Bangladesh, and the developing world at large.

Optimizing healthcare delivery: A randomized controlled trial of multi-modal primary healthcare services in a developing country with Asif Ehsan, Ummul Ruthbah, and Nazmul Hossain

Access to primary healthcare is one of the most important issues in low and middle-income countries. The optimal primary healthcare delivery method in socially and economically vulnerable societies is yet to be determined. The study aims to evaluate different health delivery approaches using randomized controlled trials in Bangladesh. The study will provide access to essential healthcare services to the impoverished rural population residing in geographically vulnerable areas. The comparative effectiveness of healthcare access on health outcomes will be investigated through three interventions – physical visits of medical doctors, Yard meetings with the rural community, and individual mobile phone messaging for health services. The findings of the study can potentially be scaled up for the whole country and other similar developing countries, especially in South Asia. 

Automatic Coal Feeder: Refining a technology to reduce black carbon emissions from South Asian brick kilns with Steve Luby, Nina Brooks,  Debashish Biswas, Md. Rofi Uddin, and Sameer Maithel, Shoeb Ahmed,  Mahbubur Rahman, and ME170 Students

Please see Stanford Luby Lab to learn more