Zhao Zhang
Welcome! I am an Economist at the International Monetary Fund. I graduated from the Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California, with a Ph.D. in Finance. I obtained my Master and Bachelor from Tsinghua University, Beijing.
My research focuses on Macro Finance, Financial Intermediaries, and Labor Finance.
Contact Information
zzhang7@imf.org
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this page are strictly those of the page author. The contents of this page have not been reviewed or approved by the IMF.
Research
Working Papers
Risk and Risk-free Rates (with Mete Kilic and Aleksandr Zotov) [04/2024] [link]
Presented at: HKU* (March 2024), HKUST* (March 2024), NUS* (March 2024)
Risk-free interest rates and the VIX index comove negatively on average, as predicted by precautionary savings. But this comovement turns positive on FOMC days. This pattern is consistently observed across a diverse array of risk-free interest rates, including nominal, real, swap, short-term, and long-term rates. Our high-frequency analysis reveals that the positive impact of monetary policy shocks on financial market risk drives this result. We provide an explanation for these findings in a model where levered investors akin to financial intermediaries hold and price a risky asset, such as equity. Upon an unexpected positive monetary policy shock, equilibrium interest rates and levered investors' borrowing costs increase persistently. This raises investors' leverage and the volatility of stochastic discount factor, leading to lower risk appetite and amplified financial market risks.
The Factor Competition Channel of Interest Rate Transmission (with Mete Kilic) [10/2023] [link]
Presented at: University of Rochester* (Oct 2023), Society for Economic Dynamics* (Jun 2023, Cartagena), USC Econ (Aug 2023)
We study how factor market competitors' investment demand sensitivity to interest rates affects the transmission of interest rate fluctuations to firms' growth. Using U.S. zip code data, we find that in areas with higher average cash flow duration of local firms, the positive impact of lower interest rates on firm growth is weakened due to rising commercial real estate prices. This effect is driven by zip codes with low land supply elasticity. Our findings suggest that the transmission of interest rate shocks is not solely determined by a firm's own attributes but also by competitor characteristics in the factor market.
Talent Market Competition and Firm Growth (with AJ Chen and Miao Ben Zhang) [10/2023] [link] [slides]
Presented at: Bretton Woods Accounting and Finance Ski Conference* (March 2024), MIT Sloan Junior Finance Faculty Conference* (Oct 2023), 2023 UC Irvine Finance Conference* (July 2023), FIRS (Jun 2023, Vancouver), University of Kentucky Finance Conference (April 2023, Lexington), Midwest Finance Association (March 2023, Chicago), Labor Finance Conference (Sep 2022, Atlanta), USC Marshall (May 2022)
How to measure the intensity of talent market competition and how does the competition affect firm growth? This research constructs a new measure of firms' talent retention pressure based on other firms' job postings for talent in the local market. We show that talent market competition substantially dampens firms' capital investment. The effect is primarily on laggard firms' investment but not superstars', leading to a limited impact on aggregate U.S. investment but increased industry concentration.
Inflation Heterogeneity and Household Financial Decisions: Evidence from Housing Markets [06/2023] [link]
Presented at: UNSW (Feb 2023), HKUST (Feb 2023), CUHK (Feb 2023), Singapore Management University (Feb 2023), SAIF (Feb 2023), Bank of Canada (Feb 2023), Monetary Policy: Heterogeneity, Communication and Subjective Inflation Expectations (Nov 2022, Bogotá), USC Marshall (Sep 2022, Jan 2022), Midwest Finance Association (March 2022, Chicago), 19th Macro-Finance Society Meeting PhD Session (May 2022, New Haven), American Finance Association PhD Session (Jan 2022, Virtual)
Lower income households have experienced higher inflation since the 2000s. I find that households who experience a rise in inflation (relative to national inflation rates) increase their borrowing from the mortgage market and holdings of housing assets. Empirically, I identify this effect by exploiting variations in relative inflation caused by exogenous shocks in exchange rates, since lower income households spend a greater share of their income on tradable goods. These findings can be explained by households relocating their savings to markets in which real returns are protected from relative inflation. A calibrated general equilibrium model suggests a smaller dispersion in home ownership between income groups but a greater dispersion in welfare, as a result of inflation heterogeneity.
Borrow from Employees: Evidence from Payday Reforms [09/2022] [link]
Presented at: Midwest Finance Association (March 2023, Chicago), USC Marshall (July 2022)
Employees often supply labor to firms first and then get paid later. This paper shows that such implicit labor trade credits or short-term borrowing are important for both firms and employees. Using state payday frequency reforms between the 1860s and the 1930s, I find that firms reduced employment after being required to pay employees more frequently, which reduced the amount of borrowing from employees. However, the employees who remained employed were more productive and earned higher wages. Despite decreased labor demand, households, on average, were better off as demonstrated by an increase in home ownership, especially those households that are typically severely financially constrained, such as low-income minorities and females.
Work in Progress
Fraud, Vertical Integration and Risk-Taking (with Amine Ouazad and Rodney Ramcharan) [02/2022] [slides]
Presented at: Baruch College* (Feb 2022), USC Marshall (Jan 2021), American Finance Association PhD Session (Jan 2021, Virtual)
We study the role of firm boundaries in facilitating fraud in the production process. Using acquisition events between broker/dealer banks and mortgage lenders as shocks to local mortgage markets, we find vertical integration resulted in riskier mortgage lending practices both ex-ante and ex-post, accompanied by an increase in product misrepresentation.