Welcome! I am an Economist at the International Monetary Fund. I graduated from the Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California, with a Ph.D. in Finance. I obtained my Master and Bachelor from Tsinghua University, Beijing.
My research focuses on Macro Finance, Financial Intermediaries, and Labor Finance.
Contact Information
zzhang7@imf.org
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this page are strictly those of the page author. The contents of this page have not been reviewed or approved by the IMF.
Talent Market Competition and Firm Growth (with AJ Chen and Miao Ben Zhang) [link]
Journal of Finance, forthcoming
Presented at: AFA (Jan 2025, San Francisco), Santiago Finance Workshop* (Dec 2024), CICF (June 2024, Beijing), Bretton Woods Accounting and Finance Ski Conference* (March 2024), ITAM Finance Conference* (Feb 2024), MIT Sloan Junior Finance Faculty Conference* (Oct 2023), 2023 UC Irvine Finance Conference* (July 2023), FIRS (Jun 2023, Vancouver), University of Kentucky Finance Conference (April 2023, Lexington), Midwest Finance Association (March 2023, Chicago), Labor Finance Conference (Sep 2022, Atlanta), USC Marshall (May 2022)
How does competition for talent affect firm growth? Using establishment-level occupational employment microdata and job postings, we measure local occupational market tightness and a firm’s talent retention pressure (TRP) based on outside job postings in its talent markets. TRP strongly predicts job-to-job talent outflows and captures firms’ talent-retention concerns. We find that higher TRP reduces capital investment, increases talent turnover, and raises talent retention costs. Notably, TRP dampens the growth of laggard firms but not superstars, as superstar firms retain talent more responsively to TRP and experience lower talent outflows, suggesting an uneven impact of TRP on the business landscape.
The Fed and the Wall Street put (with Jan Harren and Mete Kilic) [link]
Presented at: FSU Truist Beach Conference* (April 2025, Scheduled), SFS Cavalcade North America 2025* (May 2025), PHBS Finance Symposium* (Jun 2025, Shenzhen), CityU Finance Conference* (June 2025, Hong Kong), CEPR European Summer Symposium in Financial Markets* (July 2025, Gerzensee), Canadian Derivatives Institute* (Sep 2025), NFA (Calgary, Sep 2025), AFA (Jan 2026, Scheduled)
Revise & Resubmit, Journal of Financial Economics
We study the trading behavior of financial intermediaries around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements in the S&P 500 index options market using intraday data. Proprietary trading firms are net sellers of options on FOMC days, in contrast to other days, with their trading activity concentrated in the morning, well before the announcement. Larger option sales by proprietary trading firms in the morning predict both a more accommodative monetary policy shock later in the day and a subsequent decline in option prices after the policy announcement, rendering morning trades profitable. We decompose monetary policy shocks into three components and evaluate potential explanations for these findings. Our analyses suggest that some financial institutions may hold an informational advantage regarding the Fed's projected future policy actions.
Local Factor Costs and Interest Rate Transmission (with Mete Kilic) [10/2023] [link]
Presented at: IMF RESMF Seminar (Feb 2025), BSE Summer Forum* (June 2024, Barcelona), University of Rochester* (Oct 2023), Society for Economic Dynamics* (Jun 2023, Cartagena)
Interest rate shocks affect firms not only through their own discount rate exposure, but also through the exposure of other firms competing for the same local production factors. We identify this factor cost channel using commercial real estate as a location-specific production factor. When rates fall, areas populated by more interest-rate-sensitive industries experience larger increases in commercial real estate prices, dampening employment gains for a given industry. Exploiting within-county variation across zip codes, we find evidence consistent with this mechanism. The effects are concentrated where land supply is inelastic and are not explained by local demand or collateral channels.
Risk and Risk-free Rates (with Mete Kilic and Aleksandr Zotov) [link]
Presented at: MFA (March 2025), SF Fed Conference on Advances in Macro-Finance Research* (Oct 2024, San Francisco), Manchester University* (April, 2024), HKU* (March 2024), HKUST* (March 2024), NUS* (March 2024)
Risk-free interest rates and the VIX index comove negatively on average, as predicted by precautionary savings. But this comovement turns positive on FOMC days. This pattern is consistently observed across a diverse array of risk-free interest rates, including nominal, real, swap, short-term, and long-term rates. Our high-frequency analysis reveals that the positive impact of monetary policy shocks on financial market risk drives this result. We provide an explanation for these findings in a model where levered investors akin to financial intermediaries hold and price a risky asset, such as equity. Upon an unexpected positive monetary policy shock, equilibrium interest rates and levered investors' borrowing costs increase persistently. This raises investors' leverage and the volatility of stochastic discount factor, leading to lower risk appetite and amplified financial market risks.
Inflation Heterogeneity and Household Financial Decisions: Evidence from Housing Markets [link]
Presented at: UNSW (Feb 2023), HKUST (Feb 2023), CUHK (Feb 2023), Singapore Management University (Feb 2023), SAIF (Feb 2023), Bank of Canada (Feb 2023), Monetary Policy: Heterogeneity, Communication and Subjective Inflation Expectations (Nov 2022, Bogotá), USC Marshall (Sep 2022, Jan 2022), MFA (March 2022, Chicago), 19th Macro-Finance Society Meeting PhD Session (May 2022, New Haven), AFA PhD Session (Jan 2022, Virtual)
Lower income households have experienced higher inflation since the 2000s. I find that households who experience a rise in inflation (relative to national inflation rates) increase their borrowing from the mortgage market and holdings of housing assets. Empirically, I identify this effect by exploiting variations in relative inflation caused by exogenous shocks in exchange rates, since lower income households spend a greater share of their income on tradable goods. These findings can be explained by households relocating their savings to markets in which real returns are protected from relative inflation. A calibrated general equilibrium model suggests a smaller dispersion in home ownership between income groups but a greater dispersion in welfare, as a result of inflation heterogeneity.
Borrow from Employees: Evidence from Payday Reforms [link]
Presented at: Midwest Finance Association (March 2023, Chicago), USC Marshall (July 2022)
Employees often supply labor to firms first and then get paid later. This paper shows that such implicit labor trade credits or short-term borrowing are important for both firms and employees. Using state payday frequency reforms between the 1860s and the 1930s, I find that firms reduced employment after being required to pay employees more frequently, which reduced the amount of borrowing from employees. However, the employees who remained employed were more productive and earned higher wages. Despite decreased labor demand, households, on average, were better off as demonstrated by an increase in home ownership, especially those households that are typically severely financially constrained, such as low-income minorities and females.
Fraud, Vertical Integration and Risk-Taking (with Amine Ouazad and Rodney Ramcharan) [slides]
Presented at: Baruch College* (Feb 2022), USC Marshall (Jan 2021), American Finance Association PhD Session (Jan 2021, Virtual)
We study the role of firm boundaries in facilitating fraud in the production process. Using acquisition events between broker/dealer banks and mortgage lenders as shocks to local mortgage markets, we find vertical integration resulted in riskier mortgage lending practices both ex-ante and ex-post, accompanied by an increase in product misrepresentation.