Yuri Barreto - Research

Research

Publications

From Fields to Futures: The Lasting Effects of Crop Diseases on Education and Earnings (joint with Rodrigo Oliveira), World Bank Economic Review. Volume 40, May 2026, 396-420.
[Ungated version][Gated version]

Coverage: VoxDev, BBC-Brazil
Using linked administrative and survey data from Brazil, this paper studies the long-run effects of a permanent agricultural shock. Exploiting spatial variation in exposure to the witches’-broom disease in the cocoa region, we show that childhood exposure lowers educational attainment and earnings later in life, as income losses and changes in rural labor organization shift children into work and weaken human capital accumulation.

Illegal Markets and Contemporary Slavery: Evidence from the Mahogany Trade in the Amazon (joint with D. Araujo, D. Castro and R. Tigre) , Journal of Development Economics. Volume 166, January 2024, 103177.
[Ungated version][Gated version]
Coverage: VoxDev

This paper studies how market illegality affects labor coercion. Exploiting the shutdown of Brazil’s legal mahogany market and spatial variation in tree occurrence, we show that the transition to illegality increased the incidence of slave labor uncovered by inspections, highlighting how illegal markets—when enforcement fails—undermine labor protections and exacerbate coercion.

Uber and Traffic Safety: Evidence from Brazilian cities (with Raul Silveira Neto and Luis Carazza). Journal of Urban Economics. Volume 123, May 2021, 103347. [Gated version]

Coverage: [Folha de São Paulo, 2020], [Valor Econômico, 2020], [Gazeta do Povo , 2019].

Exploiting the staggered entry of Uber across Brazilian cities, this paper estimates the causal effect of ride-hailing on traffic safety. Using a difference-in-differences design, we show that Uber’s introduction reduced traffic fatalities and hospitalizations, highlighting how ride-hailing can improve urban safety in developing-country cities.

Working Papers and Work in Progress

Cisterns, Climate Adaptation, and Economic Development (joint with Bladimir Carrillo, Breno Sampaio, Diogo Britto, Lucas Emanuel, and Daniel da Mata) (Submitted)

Presented at the 1st Annual Conference of Rede PP&S, 2026 (São Paulo, Brazil), 45th Meeting of the Brazilian Econometric Society, 2023 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), Brucchi Luchino 2024 (Trento, Italy), 1st Workshop on Applied Environmental and Health Economics 2025 (Rome, Italy)

Coverage: [Valor Econômico, 2025] [World of Labour - IZA, 2025] [IGC - Policy Brief, 2025] [One Pager (Portuguese), 2026]

Using massive linked administrative data tracking over 600,000 individuals for up to 14 years, this paper estimates the causal effects of a large-scale cistern program in Brazil’s semiarid region. Exploiting staggered program rollout, we show that permanent access to clean water reduces welfare dependence, increases formal employment and earnings, and improves adult and child health. The results highlight how low-cost climate adaptation technologies can relax time constraints and generate persistent gains in economic well-being.

Family Connections, Nepotism, and Political Bargaining (joint with Breno Sampaio, Diogo Britto, Alexandre Fonseca, Paolo Pinotti and Manoel Gehrke)
Presented at NBER Political Economy Program Meeting , 2025 (Cambridge, USA)

Using uniquely linked population-level administrative data from Brazil that identify family ties up to the third degree and track the labor market outcomes of over 12 million relatives of political candidates, this paper studies nepotism in the public sector. Exploiting close elections of mayors and councilors in a regression discontinuity design, we show that relatives of narrowly elected politicians experience sharp, temporary gains in public employment, concentrated in discretionary positions. The results reveal that nepotism operates not only as favoritism but as a political bargaining device, with mayors appointing councilors’ relatives—including those in the opposition—to secure legislative support.

Technological Displacement and Modern Slavery: Evidence From Local Labor Markets (joint with D. Araujo, and Gil do Vigor)

Using the universe of Brazil’s anti-slavery inspections—covering all municipalities over nearly two decades and uniquely identifying both the location and sector of coerced labor—this paper studies how technological change affects labor coercion. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the adoption of labor-saving and labor-demanding agricultural technologies, we show that labor-saving innovations increase coercion while labor-demanding technologies reduce it. The results highlight how technology-driven labor displacement weakens workers’ outside options, pushing local labor markets toward coercive employment relationships.
Coercion at the Frontier: Property Rights and Modern Slavery in the Amazon (joint with D. Araujo, and Gil do Vigor)

This paper studies whether protecting ownership over land can reduce forced labor on the agricultural frontier. In the Brazilian Amazon, we exploit the staggered expansion of indigenous and ecological protected areas and combine this variation with the universe of federal anti-slavery inspections. We show that protected-area expansion reduces forced labor, especially in cattle ranching, forestry, charcoal production, and mining. The results suggest that stronger land protection curbs the informal frontier activities where workers are most exposed to coercion, while displacement to nearby unprotected municipalities highlights the need for spatially coordinated enforcement.
The Persistent Costs of Confiscating Savings (joint with D. Araujo)
Presented at the 45th Meeting of the Brazilian Econometric Society, 2023 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), LACEA-LAMES Annual Meeting, 2023 (Bogota, Colombia), NEUDC, 2024 (Boston, USA).

This paper studies Brazil’s 1990 Collor Plan, which unexpectedly froze more than 80% of the country’s liquid assets. Using cross-municipality variation in exposure to freezeable deposits, we show that the policy caused persistent declines in formal employment, wages, credit, and small firms. The shock also increased informality and compressed wage inequality, suggesting that temporary disruptions to financial intermediation can permanently reshape local economies.

Colonial Heritage: Women Slavery and the Roots of Domestic Labor (joint with Bladimir Carrillo and Breno Sampaio)

Presented at the 42nd Meeting of the Brazilian Econometric Society, 2020 (Online).

Using uniquely digitized municipality-level data from Brazil’s 1872 census—the first census to record slave occupations by gender—this paper studies the long-run legacy of women’s domestic slavery. Linking historical data to modern censuses, we show that areas with higher exposure to female domestic slavery have persistently larger shares of women employed in domestic work more than a century later. The results suggest that slavery shaped not only economic outcomes but also durable norms and labor demand, with effects that continue to structure women’s occupational choices today.

Life under the Thieves Guild: Evidence from Rooftops (joint with Zach Porreca)

Winner of the IHS X Cosmos AI Accelerated Scholarship Grant (IHS019906)

Technical Notes and Policy Work

"Avaliação e Monitoramento de Políticas Públicas no Âmbito do Ministério da Cidadania", GAPPE Report (2019) [in Portuguese].

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