Long-Run Effects of Radiation Exposure on Mortality: Evidence from the U.S. (Job Market Paper)
Abstract: This study examines the long-run effects of radiation exposure from U.S. atmospheric nuclear weapon tests on mortality. Using individual-level vital records and a differences-in-differences approach, I analyze county-level radiation fallout data from tests conducted at the Nevada Test Site between 1951 and 1962 to assess the impact on mortality in the continental U.S. I find significant negative effects of radiation exposure on longevity with heterogeneous impacts by age and gender. Those exposed before age 15 experience an average 16-month reduction in lifespan, while exposure after age 60 results in a 30-month reduction. The effects are larger for aged females compared to aged males. Prenatal radiation exposure, especially pre-conception, also has significant negative effects on mortality - a 1% increase in ground-level radiation fallout in the 10-12 months before birth reduces the likelihood of surviving to ages 1, 3, and 50 by 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.5%, respectively. In contrast, radiation exposure during other prenatal months does not have significant effects on future mortality. These findings have important implications for understanding the long-term public health consequences of nuclear events and can inform policies related to nuclear energy adoption and the importance of avoiding nuclear war.
When Trade Meets Climate: From Exports to Domestic Sales in Response to U.S. Solar Panel Tariffs
Abstract: This paper examines how U.S. solar panel tariffs affected Chinese manufacturers' export and domestic sales. Using the 2012 and 2014 U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties as a natural experiment, I exploit firm-level variation in tariff exposure to identify causal effects on firm behavior. The analysis employs firm-level customs data from 2009-2015 and domestic sales data from China's Annual Tax Survey of Enterprises. I find that 1\% increase in tariffs can reduce the export quantity by 0.19%, while free-on-board prices remained unchanged. Chinese firms partially compensated by increasing exports to the European Union but showed limited trade diversion to other markets. Using a difference-in-differences approach comparing U.S. exporters to firms serving other markets, I provide novel evidence that firms significantly increased domestic sales following the tariffs. U.S.-exporting firms experienced 24-32% higher domestic sales growth compared to non-U.S. exporters, demonstrating substitution between export and domestic markets in emerging industries.
Long-term Effects of Lead Exposures in Social Economics Condition (with Jiameng Zheng) Draft coming soon!
Chernobyl×100: Subclinical Impacts of Prenatal Exposure to US Nuclear Tests (with Douglas Almond and Joseph Ferrie)
Climate Change, Pollen, and Daily Activity (with Yifan Liu)