Long-Run Effects of Radiation Exposure on Mortality: Evidence from the U.S. (Job Market Paper)
Abstract: This study examines the long-run effects of radiation exposure from U.S. atmospheric nuclear weapon tests on mortality. Using individual-level vital records and a differences-in-differences approach, I analyze county-level radiation fallout data from tests conducted at the Nevada Test Site between 1951 and 1962 to assess the impact on mortality in the continental U.S. I find significant negative effects of radiation exposure on longevity with heterogeneous impacts by age and gender. Those exposed before age 15 experience an average 16-month reduction in lifespan, while exposure after age 60 results in a 30-month reduction. The effects are larger for aged females compared to aged males. Prenatal radiation exposure, especially pre-conception, also has significant negative effects on mortality - a 1% increase in ground-level radiation fallout in the 10-12 months before birth reduces the likelihood of surviving to ages 1, 3, and 50 by 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.5%, respectively. In contrast, radiation exposure during other prenatal months does not have significant effects on future mortality. These findings have important implications for understanding the long-term public health consequences of nuclear events and can inform policies related to nuclear energy adoption and the importance of avoiding nuclear war.
From Exports to Domestic Sales in Response to U.S. Solar Panel Tariffs
Abstract: This paper examines how U.S. solar panel tariffs affected Chinese manufacturers' export and domestic sales. Using the 2012 and 2014 U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties as a natural experiment, I exploit firm-level variation in tariff exposure to identify causal effects on firm behavior. The analysis employs firm-level customs data from 2009-2015 and domestic sales data from China's Annual Tax Survey of Enterprises. I find that 1\% increase in tariffs can reduce the export quantity by 0.19%, while free-on-board prices remained unchanged. Chinese firms partially compensated by increasing exports to the European Union but showed limited trade diversion to other markets. Using a difference-in-differences approach comparing U.S. exporters to firms serving other markets, I provide novel evidence that firms significantly increased domestic sales following the tariffs. U.S.-exporting firms experienced 24-32% higher domestic sales growth compared to non-U.S. exporters, demonstrating substitution between export and domestic markets in emerging industries.
Chernobyl×100: Subclinical Impacts of Prenatal Exposure to US Nuclear Tests (with Douglas Almond and Joseph Ferrie)
Long-term Effects of Lead Exposures in Social Economics Condition (with Jiameng Zheng)