Research

“Labor Intensity, Market Structure, and the Effect of Economic Activities on Civil Conflict” with Crost, B., and Felter, J. Journal of Development Economics, 2025, 174:103465.

Some types of economic activities exacerbate civil conflict while others mitigate it, but there is little systematic evidence on how characteristics of an activity determine its effect on conflict.  We provide such evidence by analyzing how movements in the prices of 26 agricultural commodities, comprising 84 percent of total agricultural output, affect conflict in the Philippines. We find that increases in the value of labor-intensive commodities lead to larger reductions (or smaller increases) in conflict, consistent with an opportunity cost mechanism.  Increases in the value of commodities produced by a small number of large farms lead to larger increases (or smaller reductions) in conflict, consistent with the hypothesis that concentrated markets are more easily taxed by armed groups. Our approach allows us to quantify the trade-off between different characteristics of economic activity, providing guidelines on the types of activities a conflict-sensitive development strategy can safely promote.

Working Papers:

Job Market Paper: “Agricultural Expansion and Civil Conflict: Evidence from the Indonesian Palm Oil Boom” with Crost, B.

This paper investigates how expansions of agricultural land area affect civil conflict, using Indonesia’s palm oil boom as a case study. Combining high-resolution satellite imagery of plantation growth with detailed conflict data, we estimate fixed effects and instrumental variable regressions to isolate the causal effect of agricultural land expansion on conflict. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in plantation area leads to a 1.6–2.2\% rise in conflict incidents, with effects that persist for at least six years. We further show that price-driven increases in the value of palm oil production led to a decrease in civil conflict.  Our results are consistent with an account in which agricultural land conversion exacerbates existing grievances and creates violent conflict, while an increase in the marginal value product of existing agricultural land reduces conflict through an opportunity cost mechanism. 

“Plantations and Rural Livelihood: Evidence from the Indonesian Palm Oil Boom.”

“Robust Permutation Tests: A Review and Comparison” with Chung, E.

“Conflict and Fertility Choices: The Impact of Civil Unrest on Reproductive Decisions”