Second Edition - 2023/24

Spring Term

☘️Session 8 (13 June 2024)

"Comparative effects of natural disasters on youth education"

Abstract: Which disasters are most detrimental to education and why? We focus on Mexico, given its diverse disaster landscape and lack of obligatory upper secondary education over the observed period. Using municipal-level data, we compare how geological and climatic disasters affect secondary education attainment rates for teenagers. While both types show significant negative impacts, climatic disasters are found to be the worst. The difference is most pronounced in highly urbanized areas. The effects seem largely driven by demand-side changes such as increases in school dropouts following all types of disasters. In addition, climatic events are found to be related to supply-side effects, as seen through a significant drop in the municipal share of teachers. These findings thus call for differential public measures according to disaster type and enhanced alertness to climatic events given their potentially stronger impact on younger generations.

☘️Session 7 (2 May 2024)

"The sensitivity of mortgage defaults to interest rates"

Emil Bandoni (Central Bank of Ireland), joint with F. Fourné and B. Jarmulska

Abstract: Using a granular database of variable rate euro area loans and analysing their defaults between 2014 and 2019, we show that the sensitivity of mortgage defaults to interest rate changes is highly non-linear. We show that the mortgage default risk associated with higher contemporaneous interest rates is concentrated among borrowers who got the loan at ultra-low interest rates, their default probability being 3.5 times higher than our sample average. We then show that the effect of interest rate changes on the default probability is asymmetric in magnitude and differs across the initial distribution. Interest rate cuts have almost negligible effects, whereas increases significantly raise default probabilities. This effect is particularly pronounced among loans with low-interest rates at origination. Finally, we show that the magnitude of the effect of an interest rate increase depends on the history of net interest rate changes, with a consecutive interest rate increase having a 3 times stronger impact on a default probability than an increase following an interest rate decrease.

☘️Session 6 (11 April 2024)

"Information manipulation as backbone of autocratic regimes: individual-level evidence"

Tatiana Bezdenezhnykh (University College Dublin)

Abstract: Information manipulation has been an effective tool of political control for autocracies throughout the 20th century and is increasingly used nowadays. Evidence shows that obvious propaganda poses a trade-off for the regime by generating negatives attitudes among people with the opposite views. Unlike earlier "crude" state propaganda aimed at reshaping individual believes, current so-called "soft" propaganda minimises this trade-off by affecting beliefs about political accountability for the observed reality. I document the effect of soft propaganda on citizens’ beliefs by examining exposure to a Russian state-run annual TV program with Vladimir Putin. By utilizing individual-level survey data collected around the program’s air date from 2012 to 2019, I study the program’s impact on a wide range of outcomes, including personal well-being, trust in institutions, and democratic values. The findings suggest that soft propaganda is more effective then its "hard" version: not only it boosts trust in the regime, it also prevents developing negative attitudes towards the regime.

☘️Session 5 (29 February 2024)

"Identifying the General Equilibrium Effects of Narcotics Enforcement"

Zachary Porreca (CLEAN Bocconi University), joint with A. Chalfin

Abstract: We analyze the demand side impacts of a supply side intervention into the market for illegal drugs in what has been described as America's largest open air drug market. Beginning in 2018, the Pennsylvania Attorney General's office and the Philadelphia Police Department engaged in an ambitious effort to shut down the drug market in Philadelphia’s Kensington neighborhood. The intervention involved increased police presence in the targeted area alongside a series of targeted ``kingpin” sweeps which were intended to remove the most pervasive operators from the market. Over the course of six major sweeps, 115 individuals were arrested. We employ highly granular Safegraph cell phone location data to track changes in traffic flows between census block groups, observing that the initiative led to sizable and persistent reductions in traffic flows to the target area. Additionally, the initiative led to reductions in traffic flows to other regional drug markets and large declines in overdose mortality in the Philadelphia metropolitan area, suggesting a genuine reduction in the demand for illegal narcotics. With a combination of theory and empirics, we argue that this reduction in regional demand is able to be achieved due to the initiative disrupting a supply-chain that our data indicates flows from the target area outwards to smaller satellite markets. Together this all suggests that, despite the inelastic demand for narcotics, regionally linked markets can be impacted broadly by location specific interventions.

☘️Session 4 (1 February 2024)

"What moved the London market during the Napoleonic Wars?"

Edwin B. Koenck (Ulster Business School & Queen’s Business School)

Abstract: This paper examines the connection between financial markets and geopolitical events during the French Wars (1792-1816), focusing on the London securities market. Utilising a dataset of daily prices for the Bank of England, East India Company, South Sea Company, and 3% consols, the study finds that the market is highly sensitive to the geopolitical rivalry between the British and French Empires. Using contemporary press reports, I find that major events during the succession of these wars moved the market. The research enhances the financial history literature by shedding light on how significant geopolitical events influence market dynamics.

Fall Term

☘️Session 3 (7 December 2023)

"Skilled Labor Inflows and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from Post-War Germany"

Richard Franke (Trinity College Dublin & CEPH), joint with S. Braun, S. Stricker, and F. Trouvain

Abstract: This study uses a novel county-level database on German World War II (WWII) expellees to analyze the effects of skilled migration on regional development. We find a statistically significant and positive effect of high-skilled expellees on income growth in West Germany. To allow for a causal interpretation, we exploit the exogenous character of the flight and expulsion process and use an instrumental variable strategy based on predicted migration flows. These results may partly explain the rapid development of southern German regions after WWII, as these regions experienced a disproportionate influx of highly skilled expellees.

☘️Session 2 (2 November 2023)

"Shedding Light on Energy Poverty"

Andrés Estévez (ESRI), joint with M. Reaños

Abstract: This research delves into the complex issue of energy poverty. Drawing on a novel and comprehensive dataset comprising micro-level data on Irish households, our study pioneers in incorporating information on the energy efficiency of dwellings, offering a holistic perspective on energy poverty. We utilize a two-way fixed effects logistical model to examine the interplay between various socioeconomic and demographic factors, regional disparities, and dwelling-specific characteristics as drivers of energy poverty. The incorporation of energy efficiency data into the analysis enables us to uncover previously hidden facets of energy poverty. By examining how dwellings’ energy efficiency relates to the experience of energy poverty, we shed light on the potential benefits of retrofitting policies, and energy consumption practices in alleviating this pervasive issue. Our findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, energy providers, and consumers alike, to foster a more inclusive and sustainable approach to energy access and affordability.

☘️Session 1 (5 October 2023)

"Accepting the Unacceptable: Does Intimate Partner Violence Shape the Tolerance of Violence?"

Eugenia Maria Frezza (Trinity College Dublin)

Abstract: In this paper, I explore whether being a victim or survivor of intimate-partner-violence (IPV) affects one’s tolerance of violence. Specifically, I study whether and to which extent the acceptability of violence is a coping mechanism for IPV victims and survivors. I study this in the context of India. I first study the short-term effect of exposure to IPV on its acceptance. I exploit the exogenous variation of Minimum-Legal-Drinking-Age policies across different Indian states, using a Regression Discontinuity Design. Findings show that when husbands are legally allowed to drink, their wives' prevalence of violence increases by 4-5 percentage points. However, the increase in violence in the short term does not translate into a change in attitudes towards IPV. To study the long-term effects, I test whether attitudes towards IPV are affected by the length of exposure to violence. To do so, I implement an event study design where I compare couples living in states where the husbands are legally allowed to drink at age 21 to states where they are allowed at age 25. Results show that younger age at drinking increases the duration of abuse up to 6 months. I also find that wives' exposure to violence can increase their tolerance towards intimate partner violence (IPV) by up to 0.36 standard deviations. These findings suggest that the longer the duration of violence, the more the victims tend to find violence acceptable as a coping mechanism.

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