Yabin YIN

Working Papers:

“The Dammed Gender: Water, Dams, and Female Schooling in Sub-Saharan Africa” (with Li Han, Pak Hung Lam) Under Review

Abstract: This paper investigates the gender-asymmetric impacts of dams on schooling in Sub-Saharan Africa. Validating and utilizing the fact that dams reduce groundwater storage in the nearby downstream area in an arid environment, we employ a generalized DID strategy to compare the changes in schooling of individuals residing close to and those relatively distant from dams after the construction of dams, for downstream and upstream separately. We find that exposure to dams before age 15 reduced female schooling by 1.2 years in the close-to-dam area, compared to those in the distant area. The decreased schooling is associated with more fertility. The effect is particularly pronounced for societies with entrenched patriarchal traditions. No similar effects were found for males or in the upstream. We show that a major mechanism is school disruptions due to increased time in water-fetching --- a burden primarily borne by school-aged girls.

“The Transition of Elite Network and Decay of Media Market in China” (with Li Han, Tao Li) Under Review

Abstract: This paper examines how leadership transitions in autocracies affect governance through shifts in elite networks. We focus on China's state-owned media sector, where market competition flourished until 2012, when a new leader opposed to media freedom assumed power. Exploiting the discrete expansion of the leader’s personal connections among provincial governments, we demonstrate that his factional followers contributed to declining investigative journalism, measured through reporting style and coverage of major accidents, despite stable reader demand. Furthermore, support from follower-governed provinces enabled the leader's 2016 nationwide rhetorical campaign against media freedom, reinforcing the baseline findings.

“Elite Resettlement and Intergenerational Inequality: Evidence from Post-Civil War Reconstruction in China” (with Tao Li, Minghui Zhu) Under Review

Abstract: This paper tries to link intergenerational inequality to possibly the largest domestic elite resettlement in modern history. At the end of the civil war (1946-1949), the Chinese Communist Party resettled tens of thousands of south-bound cadres (SBCs) from Northern revolutionary bases to newly conquered Southern provinces. Exploiting as-if random assignment of SBCs across different counties in Zhejiang province, we show that the surnames of SBCs are over-represented among students who successfully passed the highly competitive College Entrance Examination in 1995. We further show that the above effects are stronger in counties where the SBCs had initial political strength or the education system was more developed, suggesting that elite capture facilitates intergenerational persistence despite the absence of hereditary extractive institutions.

“Dams and Conflicts in Africa” (with Li Han, Jiaqi Ren) Accepted at the 2025 annual meeting of American Economic Association

Abstract: This paper examines how hydropower dams trigger conflict incidence in Africa. Combining data on 54 dams commissioned between 2001-2022 with georeferenced conflicts, we employ a difference-in-differences approach comparing areas near dam-affected versus unaffected river branches before and after dam completion. We find dams significantly increased monthly conflict incidence by 0.8 percentage points, corresponding to 114% relative to baseline in downstream areas, with effects emerging after two years and persisting in the long run. These effects were mostly concentrated near national borders and more likely involved larger-scale conflicts by organized armed groups. No such effect was observed for upstream regions. A major mechanism is through reduced downstream water availability, intensifying competition for scarce domestic water resources.

Selected Works in Progress:

“When Pro-Life Kills: Ideological Aid Policy and HIV in Africa" (with Heng Chen, Li Han)
“Wealth or Woe? The Impacts of Avocado Trade Expansion in Mexico” (with Fangyuan Peng)
“Minority, Conflict, and Child Marriage in Africa”

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