2019

An important moment for progressive Democrats to divest from failed Middle East policies

POSTED JANUARY 6, 2019

Trump's announcements that he is pulling 2,000 US ground troops out of Syria and another 7,000 out of Afghanistan present an opening for progressives to divest themselves from the failed Middle East policies of the last 17 or so years. His modest policy change set off Republican war hawks as well as Democrats.  Too bad.  There is plenty in Trump's foreign policy to protest, but removing American ground troops from the disaster area that U.S. actions created is not one of them.  

If Democrats want to protest Trump, they would be better off protesting his nuclear weapons buildup, his Iran policy, the obscenely-bloated war budget that steals needed moneys from domestic programs, his destruction of the two-state solution for Israel/Palestine, and U.S. support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen.

Code Pink co-founder Medea Benjamin, pointing out that the US and its allies have dropped 291,880 bombs and missiles on other countries in the "war on terror", writes in a Salon article ("Bring the troops home — but stop the bombing too"): "As our nation debates the merits of President Trump’s call for withdrawing U.S. troops from Syria and Afghanistan, absent from the debate is the more pernicious aspect of U.S. military involvement overseas: its air wars...let’s keep in mind that these strikes represent lives snuffed out, people maimed for life, families torn apart, homes and infrastructure demolished, taxpayer money squandered and resentment that only engenders more violence."   

In a Democracy Now! interview, Ms Benjamin answers those Democrats opposing Trump's modest moves towards disengagement.  When Amy Goodman asks about the fate of the Kurds, Benjamin replies:

" Unfortunately, this is a moment when the Kurds are in more danger. It is not something that came out of the blue. They knew this for the last year, because Trump had been talking about it. And they have started negotiations with the Syrian government to try to get protection there, because the Syrian government doesn’t want the Kurds to come into—the Turks to come into Syria, as well.

But we, in the international community, should be doing a tremendous outcry now to stop the Turkish government from sending troops into Syria. We should do that at the United Nations. We should be doing that in front of Turkish embassies around the world. This is the time for us to step up as a world community to say no to a Turkish invasion of the Kurds."

The entire Democracy Now! interview [link below left] is well worth a listen.  

Lying our way towards attacking Iran

POSTED JANUARY 16, 2019

While the media are focusing on the Trump shutdown and the Mueller probe, Iranophobes Bolton and Pompeo have been making mischief and telling lies in the Middle East.  

Bolton's lies are similar to those he told before the US invasion of Iraq in 2003,  while Pompeo is trying to convince leaders in the Middle East that Iran is the major challenge in the region.  

On January 6, Bolton told Israeli's Netanyahu that Iran is still committed to developing nuclear weapons.  Nuclear security expert Joe Circincione rebuts the claim at the Defense One website: "There’s no evidence behind the national security adviser’s dire warnings about Tehran’s nuclear intentions. Here’s the dire warning National Security Advisor John Bolton brought Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: 'We have little doubt that Iran’s leadership is still strategically committed to achieving deliverable nuclear weapons.'  I have found zero evidence to support Bolton’s claim. It is unclear who 'we' means, but it certainly does not include the American intelligence community. They have found exactly the opposite."  

Last week came the revelation that last September, Bolton shocked the defense department when he asked them to prepare a plan to strike Iran. Axios reporter Jonathan Swan writes: "Former Defense Secretary James Mattis had "deep concerns" about a request late last year from [Bolton] for options to attack inside Iran, according to a source close to Mattis.  'There were deep concerns about any efforts to escalate a conflict with Iran,,' the source told me. As the Wall Street Journal first reported, Bolton's request came "after militants fired three mortars into Baghdad's sprawling diplomatic quarter, home to the U.S. Embassy, on a warm night in early September. The shells — launched by [an Iraqi militia] group aligned with Iran — landed in an open lot and harmed no one."

This is the same John Bolton who helped get us into the Iraq War.  Bolton was certain that Iraq had WMD's and helped start the war which would ultimately destabilize the Middle East, leading to the rise of the Islamic State among other horrors.   How anyone can still believe this man is beyond comprehension.  

Iranophobe # 2 Pompeo was on a tour trying to gain regional support against Iran - taking time to repeatedly attack President Obama.  Pompeo "presented his vision for U.S. policy in the Middle East in a speech at a Cairo university Thursday Jan 11 that at times directly contradicted President Trump. Pompeo promised the U.S. will “expel every last Iranian boot” from Syria, even as the president has vowed to remove 2,000 troops from the region. Pompeo repeatedly attacked former President Barack Obama throughout the address, telling his audience, 'The age of self-inflicted American shame is over.'  Pompeo did not mention gross human rights abuses committed in Egypt under President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, or the 60,000 political prisoners human rights groups say are currently locked up in Egyptian jails." (Democracy Now!, Jan 11)  

Juan Cole at Informed Comment writes: "Pompeo’s message to Egypt is that the US plays a positive role in the Middle East and that Obama was wrong to attempt to get out of the region and re-balance toward the Pacific Rim. ... The US, he said, does not want to occupy any country against its will, in contrast to Iran. (Fact check on Pompeo: Iran is not occupying any countries in the Middle East but has given some military assistance to Syria at the request of Damascus. The US aggressively invaded Iraq without a causus belli and occupied it for nearly a decade against its will.)  Pompeo attempted to whip up anti-Iran sentiments as part of his vision of a grand alliance of the US and the Arab world (and Israel) against Iran and Hizbullah.

"Aside from some generals and kings and princes, nobody in the region agrees with anything he said...Some recent polling by Zogby in 8 countries of the Middle East [shows that] people in the region for the most part (outside of Saudi Arabia and the UAE) really dislike US policy. Zogby notes, “It is important to note that the United States only receives single digit favorable ratings in Iraq and Egypt.” That is, in both Egypt, where Pompeo spoke, and in Iraq, which he had just visited, over 90% of the population has an unfavorable view of the United States...The invasion and occupation of Iraq, which Pompeo appears to have denied ever happened, is one reason for that unfavorable view of the US among the Middle Eastern publics. Another is the Palestine issue. Zoghby says 'ending the occupation of Palestinian lands’ is rated the number one issue in most countries.  In the region, Iran comes third, with the most pressing concern being the liberation of the Palestinians from Israeli occupation. Second most places comes a resolution of the Syrian civil war. Iran comes a distant third, which isn’t promising for the agenda of Pompeo of Arabia."

MIDDLE EAST UPDATE

Saudi Arabia and Yemen (Feb 15)

The US and UK-backed Saudi war in Yemen has created the world's worst current humanitarian crisis.  The US has stopped giving logistical support to Saudi bombers, but we as well as the UK continue to supply the Saudi regime with arms.  

In what was largely a symbolic vote due to the certainty of a Trump veto, the House voted to end U.S. military assistance to Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen in a 248-177 vote on Wednesday. Eighteen Republicans reportedly voted with Democrats to “curtail presidential war powers” after Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi was killed in Istanbul’s Saudi Arabian consulate late last year.  One of the dissident Saudi journalist's causes was opposition to the Saudi actions in Yemen.  Last week, the White House declined to meet a Senate deadline to report whether it believed Saudi's Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman ordered Khashoggi's murder.

Meanwhile, the European Commission proposed adding seven countries including Saudi Arabia to the EU’s money-laundering blacklist of governments that do too little to thwart the financing of terrorism and organised crime.  The move comes as tensions between Riyadh and European capitals are heightened over the Khashoggi murder.

The ceasefire agreed in December between the Houthi rebels and the Saudi-backed deposed Yemeni ex-president is shaky and UK foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt has warned of “a shortening window of opportunity” to save Yemen’s partial ceasefire in advance of talks in which Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will face pressure to not resume their military offensive.

Even with the ceasefire, the Yemen crisis continues unabated.  Food aid sent to the country to counter the famine is in danger of rotting, and Yemen's crumbling hospitals are now being overwhelmed by a swine flu epidemic.

Iran (Feb 16)

The Trump Administration's anti-Iran conference in Warsaw backfired.  Months after the US unilaterally violated the Iran Nuclear Deal by reimposing sanctions on Iran, the Administration tried to strong arm the European signatories into leaving the JCPOA.  It didn't work.  The EU sent low level diplomats to the conference and Russia and China did not attend. 

Following the Warsaw conference, VP Pence traveled to Munich for a security meeting.  "I bring greetings from the 45th president of the United States of America, Donald Trump," Pence said, before being met with a lengthy silence.

Germany’s foreign minister, Heiko Maas, replied to the chiding of Vice President Mike Pence that Iran is destabilizing the region. Maas remarked that “Together with the British, the French and the entire European Union, we have found a means to allow Iran to remain in the nuclear accord. Our objective remains the lack of nuclear weapons, precisely because Iran destablizes the region.” Without the accord, “the region will not be more secure, but would in fact take a further step toward open confrontation.” 

US, Israel, and Occupied Palestine (Feb 17)

Over the past two years, the Trump Administration has destroyed hopes for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine.  After moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and cutting off US aid to the Palestinian Territories and the UN organizations that serve them (UNRWA), Trump closed the PLO diplomatic mission in Washington.  Earlier this month, USAID ceased all assistance for Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza. 

There is no longer even a pretense of wanting a just peace for the Palestinians.  They remain under the yoke of a 50+ year military occupation and a 12 year land, sea, and air blockade of Gaza that is rendering the "world's largest outdoor prison" unlivable.  Refugees for 70 years, Palestinians, as stateless persons, have no recourse for redressing their grievances.

Encouraged by Trump's policies, Netanyahu's far-right Israeli government has ratcheted up their illegal* and apartheid** actions.  Peace Now, the Israeli anti-settlement watchdog, notes a "building frenzy in the [West Bank] settlements since President Trump took office."  (NPR.org)  Recent apartheid measures enacted or floated for consideration include declaring Israel to be a Jewish state (actual), having a death penalty only for Palestinians (proposed), and opening a new segregated road separating Palestinian and Israeli traffic between the villages of Anata and Azzayim (actual).  

Palestinians protesting their living conditions at the Gaza Border are met with lethal military force.   Since the March of Return protests began (March 30, 2018), at least 240 Palestinians have been killed and 23,000 wounded by Israeli fire.  The US consistently provides cover for the Israeli government by vetoing calls for protection of protesters and investigation of war crimes.  Most recently, the US blocked a UN resolution criticizing Netanyahu's announcement that he will not renew the mandate of the international observatory task force that has been monitoring the divided West Bank city of Hebron for twenty years. 

As was the case with South Africa, Israel will not stop its apartheid practices and policies until the US clearly signals its displeasure with those policies - by stopping arms sales and/or by joining the BDS movement**.  However, we appear to be going in quite the opposite direction.  Mark Rubio's anti-BDS bill was temporarily stymied in the Senate but passed there after the shutdown was over.  It is an attack on the right of free speech, but may still end up passing in the House.  The key operative sentence of the Senate bill says that “a measure of a state or local government” that refuses to do business with companies that boycott Israel is “not preempted by any Federal law.”  The bill as worded may be constitutional but its clear intention is to "encourage and endorse state laws that very probably do violate the First Amendment."  (Bloomberg.com)  

Until US politicians find the courage to oppose unacceptable policies, we can do our part by becoming more informed and by supporting organizations working for justice in the Middle East. [Links below]

Related articles: 

"Yes, Ilhan, there is an Israel lobby -  despite the phony controversy."  (Informed Comment)

Not Even AIPAC Will Defend Netanyahu’s Latest Decision (Slate)

Until recently in Israeli politics, the extremist Otzma Yehudit party served as a useful foil, allowing other right-wing parties to look reasonable by contrast. Now, the party and its hateful, violent ideology could be entering the political mainstream thanks to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

*The international community considers the establishment of Israeli settlements in the Israeli-occupied territories illegal under international law, because of the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949 which states: "The Occupying Power shall not deport or transfer parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies."  Since the occupation of the West Bank in 1967, numerous United Nations resolutions, including 446, 452, 465, 471 and 476 affirm unambiguously that Israel's occupation is illegal, and, since Resolution 446 adopted on 22 March 1979, have confirmed that its settlements there have no legal validity and pose a serious obstacle to peace. (Wikipedia)

**Israel carries out various acts that are prohibited by the UN Apartheid Convention including forcible transfer of  Palestinians to make way for illegal Israeli settlements, preventing Palestinians from returning to their homes and lands, systematic and severe deprivation of fundamental human rights of Palestinians based on their identity, denying Palestinians their right to freedom of movement and residence, murder, torture, unlawful imprisonment and other severe deprivation of physical liberty, especially of Palestinians living in Gaza, and persecution of Palestinians because of their opposition to Apartheid. (WarOnWant website)

Trump-Kushner peace plan will leave Palestinians with "even less than they have now"

POSTED MAY 15, 2019

Today marks the 71st anniversary of the Nakba ('disaster") - the ethnic cleansing that occurred when more than 700,000 Palestinians fled or were expelled from their homes.  "Between 400 and 600 Palestinian villages were sacked and  urban Palestine was almost entirely extinguished." (Wikipedia) The newly formed state of Israel then passed laws that prevented Arabs who had left from returning to their homes or claiming their property. They and many of their descendants remain refugees to this day.  

For more than 50 years the West Bank and Gaza, where the remaining residents of Palestine reside, have been subjected to a brutal military occupation.  

For the last 12 years, Gaza has been subjected to a land, sea, and air blockade that has made recovery from the devastation caused by Israeli attacks on the compound impossible. 

According to UNRWA, it must secure an additional $60 million by June to continue providing food to more than one million Palestine refugees in Gaza, including some 620,000 “abject poor” who cannot cover their basic food needs and are surviving on $1.6 per day. The funds are also needed to cover the severely challenged 390,000 “absolute poor”, who survive on about $3.5 per day.

UNRWA is funded almost entirely by voluntary contributions and financial support, which has been outpaced by growing needs.

From fewer than 80,000 Palestine refugees in Gaza receiving social assistance in 2000, today over one million people need urgent food aid to get through their day.

“This is a near ten-fold increase caused by the blockade that led to the closure of Gaza and its disastrous impact on the local economy, the successive conflicts that razed entire neighborhoods and public infrastructure to the ground, and the ongoing internal Palestinian political crisis that started in 2007 with the arrival of Hamas to power in Gaza,” said Matthias Schmale, Director of UNRWA Operations in Gaza.

The Trump administration is expected to make known its "peace plan" in June.  The plan will put the final nail in the coffin of the two-state solution and almost certainly will be rejected by the Palestinians.  Slate reports:

In terms of political sovereignty, the plan may actually leave Palestinians with less than they have now. Over the weekend, Israeli media reports suggested that the plan not only will allow for all Israeli settlements on the West Bank to remain under Israeli control indefinitely, but it also will not object to the “extension of Israeli law” to the settlements. This seems a lot like acquiescence to Benjamin Netanyahu’s pledge during his recent election campaign to begin formal annexation of the settlements as Israeli territory. 

What would Palestinians get in return? Well, money, mainly. As the Washington Post reports, “The package is expected to call for tens of billions of dollars in aid and investment in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the two areas where most Palestinians live, and billions more to Egypt and Jordan, the two Arab states that have made peace with Israel....

Palestinian officials have had no official contact with the Trump administration since the president unilaterally recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in December 2017. Since then, the administration has cut aid to the West Bank and Gaza and shut down the consulate that oversaw U.S.-Palestinian relations. The denial of visas to advocates of the Palestinians seems to be the next step in this pressure campaign. The administration is not only ruling out Palestinian aspirations for statehood, it’s also banning those who advocate for those aspirations. 

As the late Anthony Bourdain said, "The world has visited many terrible things upon the Palestinian people, none more shameful than robbing them of their basic humanity."  The US has seldom been an even-handed broker for the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, but the Trump Administration has taken this to an unprecedented level. 

US escalates rhetoric and tensions with Iran: is Bolton on the verge of having his war?

POSTED MAY 21, 2019/UPDATED MAY 27

In his campaign for the Presidency, Donald Trump called the war in Iraq a huge mistake.   Today, egged on by the same crowd of neocons who lied us into that war and smarting over his failure to isolate or bring down Iran after unilaterally withdrawing from the nuclear deal and then violating it by reimposing sanctions, he may be about to create another, even bigger mistake. 

John Bolton may get his long-sought-for war with Iran after all as Trump's "every move in the Middle East now seems committed to conflict and potentially to war with Iran."

John Bolton is clearly at the vanguard, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo backing him up. Iranian diplomat Seyed Hossein Mousavian is a former senior negotiator for Iran on the nuclear issue, and currently a research scholar at Princeton University. Mousavian expressed his concerns this week on the “Democracy Now!” news hour: “I expected such a situation after Ambassador John Bolton was nominated as national security adviser,” he said. Noting as well the influential roles of key Trump allies, Mousavian concluded, “The four B’s team — John Bolton, [Israeli Prime Minister] Bibi Netanyahu, [the crown princes of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi] bin Salman and bin Zayed — now have excellent position at the White House to push the U.S. [into] the dream they have had for years and years and years — to drag the U.S. into a war with Iran.”

Talk of an "imminent threat" from Iran have been coming out regularly:

British Army Maj. Gen. Christopher Ghika, a key commander of the multinational force deployed to Iraq and Syria, refuted the U.S. allegations [of an imminent threat], saying, “There’s been no increased threat from Iranian-backed forces in Iraq and Syria.” He was quickly rebutted by a spokesperson from U.S. Central Command, who said an attack from Iran was possibly “imminent.” 

While U.S. officials have released photos of small Iranian boats with missiles, many observers in Europe, Iraq and the United States Congress say the missiles are likely defensive. 

U.S. ally Saudi Arabia is reporting that two empty oil tankers were sabotaged as they returned to be loaded with oil bound for the U.S. Once again, they have not said who did it. 

Having sent an aircraft carrier strike group and bomber wing to the region, the US has set the stage for a flash incident that could ignite the region again. Two moves on the Iranian side may help lessen the threat of an "accidental war":

Both Iran's clerical leader, Ali Khamenei, and the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami stating that Iran does not want war with the US. "Then the US side defused some tensions by reporting that Iran had brought its little boats back to shore that the US maintained had missiles (i.e. rockets) on them. Iran does not have a navy to speak of and those little boats can’t carry a missile system." (Informed Comment, May 20)

"Iran has urged the United Nations to help launch a diplomatic dialogue to ease an "alarming security situation" in the Gulf.  Majid Takht Ravanchi, Iran's ambassador to the UN, made the appeal in a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and the Security Council on Monday." (Al Jazeera, May 20)

US credibility, the violence of sanctions, and the ticking clock on war with Iran

POSTED JUNE 18, 2019/LAST UPDATED JUNE 21

JUNE 21 UPDATE:  For now, the Administration Iran hawks have been stifled.  President Trump approved and then cancelled military strikes against Iran in response for the downing of the spy drone. The New York Times report claimed the order to halt attacks on Iranian radar and missile batteries came after intense debate at the White House among top security officials and congressional leaders. No missiles had been fired and it is not clear whether Washington will still move forward with the strikes.  President Trump has called for talks with Iran on "various issues."  The possibility of talks may rest on the strength of the Iranian hardliners and whether the US suspends or reduces its unilateral agreement-breaking sanctions.

RELATED: Trump Pulls Back from Iran Attack as Bolton & Pompeo Continue to Push for War (Democracy Now!, June 21)

JUNE 20 UPDATE: Iran's Revolutionary Guard shot down a US spy drone they say had entered Iranian air space. The Pentagon claims it was over international waters and calls the attack "unprovoked."  Unprovoked? After the US unilaterally exited the JCPOA and then violated it by re-instituting sanctions that are costing Iran $100 million a day in oil revenues?  As to what air space the drone was in, does it matter if the drone was near or actually in Iranian airspace?  Can you imagine what the US reaction would be if an Iranian spy drone was off the coast of New York?  The Trump administration is again ratcheting up the rhetoric and Iran is doing likewise.  The Bolton-Netanyahu dream of war with Iran is a step closer.  

Related: The Last Thing America Needs Is Yet Another Open-Ended War In The Middle East (The Federalist, June 20)

As the Iranophobic Trump administration rushed to judgment on two tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman, most of the world urged negotiations and an investigation.  As might be expected, Iran denies the claims.  Iran's speaker of parliament even accuses the US of possibly staging a false flag operation. Perhaps more surprising are those who had little or nothing to say. Heather Hulbert at the Daily Intelligencer writes:

Close U.S. allies outside the region, even Norway and Japan, where the two damaged tankers were registered, were silent or urged caution. Even the U.K., typically Washington’s closest ally on security matters, hedged its statement with “if” and said it would conduct its own inquiry....The cautious responses coming from the European Union, Japan, Norway, and elsewhere reflect a shared concern that a spiral of attacks and allegations will lead to a full-blown war in the Gulf, or even something lesser but still profoundly damaging to the global economy, and perhaps unleash a new round of extremist violence outside the region.

Japan’s awkward position is a good reminder of just how profoundly international the commerce in the Gulf is. Sailors from the stricken tankers wound up on U.S. and Iranian vessels, with a Dutch tugboat also participating in the rescue.  Many of our allies have an interest in avoiding conflict in the region and see no good coming from war. They will continue working to encourage Washington and Tehran to back down.

US credibility has been so damaged by this Administration (by its withdrawals from international commitments and its antagonistic foreign policy) and by previous administrations (Bush's "weapons of mass destruction"; the Gulf of Tonkin fabrication) that our allies have not immediately fallen in line.  Nearer to the Middle East, they also have more to lose if a war breaks out.

And, if an investigation proves that Iran not only took an alleged mine OFF a stricken tanker but put it on as well, would this justify a war?   Certainly not - particularly if the unilateral illegal sanctions placed on Iran by the US are taken into account. As Juan Cole writes at Informed Comment, "Both actions, the tanker attack and the US unilateral severe sanctions, stop someone from engaging in lawful commerce." He reminds us:

The United States has no grounds for its financial blockade on Iranian oil. The US in 2015 signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran, guaranteeing an end of economic sanctions in return for Iran mothballing 80% of its nuclear enrichment program. Iran has been in compliance according to the UN inspectors. But the Trump administration has not. Trump breached the agreement and went around the world forcing other countries not to buy Iranian petroleum, even though Iran was in compliance with the JCPOA.

Economic sanctions may seem less violent than the tanker attacks, but they are not.  Iran is losing more than $100 million per day as a result of the current sanctions, and the toll on Iranian lives is significant. Cole continues:

Severe financial sanctions are inherently violent. They are interfering with Iranians having the money to buy needed medicine. They are interfering with Iran modernizing its aged commercial airliner fleet.

For instance, on Jan. 9, 2011, an Iran Air Flight, 277, with Boeing 727-286Adv equipment, crashed near Orumieh, killing 79 passengers and injuring 24. The forensics team specified old equipment as one of the reasons for the crash.

United States sanctions are killing people who are pushed down out of the middle class and cannot any longer afford medicine, but they are also just executing Iranian airline passengers right out of the sky because the Treasury Department threatens to fine anyone selling anything to Iran (there was another crash in February).

Informing our antagonistic relationship with Iran are our main allies in the Middle East - Saudi Arabia and Israel.  Iran is Saudi Arabia's biggest rival in the Middle East and their enmity is fueled by centuries of the Sunni-Shia divide.  Iran is also "one of the only countries remaining to even so much as politely object to the slow ethnic cleansing of the Occupied Palestinians" by the far-right Israeli government.  

Sheldon Adelson, the filthy rich casino mogul who gathered up billions by taking advantage of poor people is said to have pushed Trump to install anti-Iran warmongers such as John Bolton in high office. The point is obviously to push the United States into a war with Iran for the sake of the colonization project of the far, far-right Likud government in Israel....Adelson and his pet, Binyamin Netanyahu, want to find a big goon to break Iran’s legs. They have fixed on the erratic and gullible Trump.

So will Bolton, Pompeo, Netanyahu, Adelson, and the Saudis finally get their war with Iran?  The march to war has been underway since Tillerson and McMaster were replaced by Iranophobes Bolton and Pompeo early last year.  And the US has ratcheted up its rhetoric in recent months, including the exceptionally dishonest attempt to link elements of the Iranian military with al-Qaeda.*  Now, after a year of severe illegal sanctions crippling its economy, Iran is growing impatient. Yesterday, Iran announced that it would reach the JCPOA limit on low-enriched uranium by June 27, if the JCPOA cannot be saved.  Trump promptly announced an increase in troops in the Middle East.  

The clock is ticking and it's only a matter of time before an incident is provoked (or fabricated) that causes Trump to cave to his war-monger advisers and campaign contributors.  It is a scary thought.  Donald Trump may be the only thing standing between a war-of-choice against Iran.  If it does occur, this war-of-choice will make Iraq seem like a playground fight.

*The obvious intent is to bypass Congress for a war on Iran by using the AUMF put in place after 9/11.

JCPOA breaches -  which is the worst?

POSTED JULY 7, 2019

Iran recently exceeded the JCPOA limit on the amount of uranium enrichment.  The media and Iran hawks have been besides themselves.  Iran's actions come 13 months after the US unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, and about 6 months after the US violated the agreement signed in 2015 by reimposing sanctions.  

Some facts and analysis:

THE BREACH

The US withdrew from the JCPOA in spite of Iran's complete compliance in May 2018.  The US then violated the agreement by reimposing sanctions on Iran later that year.  

On July 1, 2019, Iran breached the limit on low-enriched uranium (300 kg) citing Section 36 of the JCPOA.  

That section "lays out a process by which one side can lodge official complaints that the other side is not living up to its end of the deal.  If, after going through the process, the issue is still not resolved, the complainant 'could treat the unresolved issue as grounds to cease performing its commitments under this JCPOA in whole or in part,' according to the text of the deal." (PresFrom.Info, July 7 based on an article in TheHill)  

THE EFFECT OF EACH COUNTRY'S BREACH

US Sanctions

"The US has formally exempted humanitarian goods from the sanctions, but experts say that the measures against the financial system are so all-encompassing that they will deter any kind of trade with Iran."  (The Guardian, 5 Nov 2018)

Iran is losing more than $100 million per day as a result of the current sanctions, and the toll on Iranian lives is significant. Juan Cole at Informed Comment writes: 

"Severe financial sanctions are inherently violent. They are interfering with Iranians having the money to buy needed medicine. They are interfering with Iran modernizing its aged commercial airliner fleet.

For instance, on Jan. 9, 2011, an Iran Air Flight, 277, with Boeing 727-286Adv equipment, crashed near Orumieh, killing 79 passengers and injuring 24. The forensics team specified old equipment as one of the reasons for the crash.

United States sanctions are killing people who are pushed down out of the middle class and cannot any longer afford medicine, but they are also just executing Iranian airline passengers right out of the sky because the Treasury Department threatens to fine anyone selling anything to Iran (there was another crash in February).

Iran's Uranium Stockpile Limit Breach

Iran announced in May it was quadrupling its uranium production capacity, and in mid-June announced it would exceed the stockpile limit by the end of the month.  Arms control advocates have...said that while any breach of the deal is concerning, exceeding the limit on the amount of low-enriched uranium does not pose an immediate proliferation threat with Iran still estimated to be a year away from being able to have a nuclear weapon. (Pressfrom.info)

Iran as a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons has the right to peaceful uses of atomic energy.  Their agreement to limit the amount of low-enriched uranium is a significant concession.

WHAT'S NEXT?

The Administration continues to lie*, bluster** and threaten*** Iran for not caving in to US demands.  Trump himself apparently wants "talks" which Iran will not likely consent to unless the agreement-violating sanctions are lifted.  Meanwhile, Congressional Republicans are demanding Trump not cave in to what they call "nuclear blackmail", and the Senate has been unable to muster 60 votes to stop Trump from launching an attack against Iran.

For its part, Iran has ratcheted up the stakes stating that it will now "abandon its [JCPOA commitment to 3.67% enrichment] and increase it to any amount that we require and need."...Iran has previously said it needs 5 percent enrichment for its nuclear power plant in Bushehr and 20 percent enrichment for a Tehran research reactor. Twenty percent is still under weapons-grade. But once it reaches that level, it takes much less time to enrich to 90 percent, which is considered weapons-grade. (Pressform.info)

This sad state of affairs will continue until the other signatories to the JCPOA find a satisfactory way around the crippling US sanctions.  The Europeans are Iran's audience since the Administration will not mitigate the sanctions.  Best possible outcome is the EU finds a way around the sanctions and Iran stays in the deal.  Worst possible outcome is that Iran joins India, Israel, Pakistan, South Sudan and North Korea as a non-participant in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

*As recently as his 4th of July speech Trump was claiming that Iran violated the JCPOA before the US pulled out of the agreement - contrary to the UN inspectors and our own intelligence agencies. Earlier, he claimed they spent all their money on terror.

**Additional sanctions were imposed on Iran after the downing of an unmanned US spy drone that Iran claimed to be in their airspace.  Iran's response was that the new sanctions permanently closed the chance for diplomacy.

***Trump threatened Iran with obliteration if they "attack anything American" after they responded to the new sanctions.

The tale of the tankers: Bolton bamboozles Brits on eve of UK elections

POSTED JULY 23, 2019/UPDATED AUGUST 20, 2019

Tensions between the West and Iran escalated markedly when Iranian Revolutionary Guards seized two British oil tankers in retaliation for the British seizure of an Iranian tanker in international waters near the straits of Gibraltar.  As reported in the Guardian, there is accumulating evidence that "[John] Bolton’s national security team was directly involved in manufacturing the Gibraltar incident. The suspicion is that Conservative politicians, distracted by picking a new prime minister, jockeying for power, and preoccupied with Brexit, stumbled into an American trap." 

The Iranian tanker, Grace I, had been tracked by US satellites since April.

The Spanish newspaper, El Pais, citing official sources, takes up the story: “The Grace 1, which flies a Panamanian flag, had been under surveillance by US satellites since April, when it was anchored off Iran. The supertanker, full to the brim with crude oil, was too big for the Suez Canal, and so it sailed around the Cape of Good Hope before heading for the Mediterranean.

“According to the US intelligence services, it was headed for the Syrian oil refinery of Banias. Washington advised Madrid of the arrival of the supertanker 48 hours ahead of time, and the Spanish navy followed its passage through the Strait of Gibraltar. It was expected to cross via international waters, as many Iranian vessels do without being stopped.” 

The Spanish did not take the bait. The Brits did.  As Informed Comment's Juan Cole notes, there were three problems with the British reasoning and actions: 

First, the EU ban on oil sales to Syria concerned only EU member states.

Second, the Grace I was in international waters and seizing it is a form of piracy.

Third, there is no proof it was headed for Syria (which would not have been illegal in international law in any case).

Bolton tweeted his excitement over the British seizure of Grace I.  He and fellow Iran hawk Pompeo may be the only people on the planet for whom this came as good news.  

- UK's presumptive new Prime Minister Boris Johnson had previously told Trump that the UK would not support military action against Iran.  

- The US House of Representatives has passed a defense budget that explicitly prohibits Trump from using funds to attack Iran without Congressional authorization.  

- The EU foreign and security body was silent after the British capture of the tanker and the Iranian retaliation. "The silence conveyed its dissatisfaction to the US at the way it was manipulating EU sanctions to its own ends. More pointedly, the silence was trained upon Britain’s cumbersome attempt to court US military objectives while claiming to support the delicate diplomacy favoured by the EU towards Iran."  (Guardian, July 18)

Let's not forget how this started.  Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement and violated it by reimposing crippling sanctions on Iran.  Will the UK be tricked again - as they were in Iraq - to support US military action?  Without British support, there may not have been an Iraq War.  

And now, Iranian hardliners have gained the upper hand.  They are promising retaliation for every Western act against them.  They point to the sanctions, the tanker seizure, and the less-well-known propaganda broadcasts:  See, we told you so.  The US cannot be trusted.

Neither the American nor the British nor the Iranian people have any appetite for another endless Middle East war.  Cooler heads may yet prevail, but we will need real diplomacy, not ultimatums, to accomplish it.

Update: August 20

Negotiations between the Gibraltar (UK) and Iran had come to an agreement that would allow the release of the Grace I.  

"On Thursday, a court in Gibraltar lifted a detention order, concluding that Iran's pledge that the cargo wouldn't be shipped to Syria satisfied the conditions of European Union sanctions.  However, a U.S. federal court quickly issued a warrant for the vessel and its cargo to be impounded for violating U.S. sanctions. The court in the British overseas territory said Sunday that it was bound by EU, not U.S., law and ordered the ship to be released." (NPR, Aug 19)

Pressured by Trump, Israel denies entry to two US Congresswomen

POSTED AUG 16, 2019

Representatives Ilan Omar and Rashida Tlaib were denied entry to Israel yesterday under pressure from Donald Trump.  The unprecedented action against US Congresspersons drew criticism across the political spectrum - including from the right-wing Israel lobby, AIPAC. 

The Israeli journal Haaretz opined:

"The historically deep ties that bind the United States and Israel were profoundly damaged Thursday when the government of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu succumbed to pressure from the Trump Administration and barred two members of the United States Congress from entering Israel. While the special relationship between our two countries has withstood political upheaval, wars and the ebb and flow of geopolitics, it has seldom been challenged as it has been by this reckless and contemptible act of the wannabe authoritarian tag-team of Netanyahu and Trump."

The US Congress also reacted.  

Elizabeth Warren:“Israel doesn’t advance its case as a tolerant democracy or unwavering US ally by barring elected members of Congress from visiting because of their political views."

Bernie Sanders: "“Banning Congresswomen Omar and Tlaib from entering Israel and Palestine is a sign of enormous disrespect to these elected leaders, to the United States Congress, and to the principles of democracy.” 

Rep. Betty McCollum, a Minnesota Democrat: Trump and Netanyahu were “afraid” of letting Tlaib and Omar “witness first-hand the brutality & dehumanization Israel’s occupation inflicts on the Palestinian people.”  

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi: “Israel’s denial of entry to Congresswomen Tlaib and Omar is a sign of weakness, and beneath the dignity of the great State of Israel. The President’s statements about the Congresswomen are a sign of ignorance and disrespect, and beneath the dignity of the Office of the President."

The banned Congresswomen replied:  

Trump's lying tweet about why Omar and Tlaib should be banned can be found in Politics 2020: Facts Matter.  

Israel is holding elections in September.  Netanyahu was unable to form a majority coalition after the elections in April.  Will Israeli voters  reject the right-wing, apartheid policies that have informed its treatment of the Palestinians?  Or will they continue to be part of the cabal of "illiberal brothers"?  Netanyahu "is calling in unprecedented re-election favors (read: interventions) from his illiberal brothers - Trump, Putin, Modi, Bolsonaro and Orban. The gloves are coming off in the conflict between liberals and illiberals in Israel – and around the world." (Haaretz, Aug 11)  The latest polls show a tight race, but as the Haaretz article concludes: "It may signal that the gloves are coming off in the global conflict between liberals and non-liberals. However, it also demonstrates the power asymmetry between the camps. The world's liberals still have much work to do before they can collectively start to turn the tide."

Link below right: Democracy Now! on Trump's unprecedented request to Netanyahu to ban the US Congresswomen and conditions in Occupied Palestine. 

Trump fires Bolton but don't get your hopes up...Pompeo is still around

POSTED SEPTEMBER 14, 2019/UPDATED SEPTEMBER 15

Cheered as I am by Trump's firing of National Security Adviser John Bolton, talk of negotiations with Iran are both premature and optimistic.  Bolton, a virulent Iran war hawk and one of the pack of neocons who lied us into invading Iraq, was fired because Trump disagreed with some of his advice.  But Bolton was put in place by Trump precisely because he mirrored Trump's antagonistic views on foreign policy.  I guess we'll have to see whom billionaire donor Sheldon Adelson and Trump BFF Benjamin Netanyahu advise as a replacement.  

Let's also not forget that the least diplomatic Secretary of State of the past few decades and fellow Iran hawk Mike Pompeo is still in place.  Pompeo fully supported the US leaving the JCPOA (Iran Nuclear Deal) as one of his first acts after replacing Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State.  Pompeo also drew up the list of demands Iran had to meet to avoid the draconian sanctions aimed at crippling their economy.  Besides his involvement in Iran, Pompeo has also been part of the "no negotiations" support of the attempted right-wing coup in Venezuela and in the reversal of Obama's Cuba policy.  With Bolton gone, Pompeo is beginning to make unfounded claims and sounding a lot like Bolton.  After Houthi rebels executed a drone attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia this morning, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo directly blamed Iran for “an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply.” Pompeo, however, offered no specific evidence.

The stench of Bolton's 18 month tenure still lingers.  His advice on North Korea nearly scuttled the talks, and his bamboozling of the Brits to commit an act of piracy against an Iranian oil tanker was a total failure.  Bolton's firing is a small step in the right direction but let's hold off the celebration for a while.  

Update September 15: Informed Comment puts Pompeo's "evidence-free" accusation in context:

Pompeo’s impetuous tweet, like the ones coming from his president, was itself not accompanied by any evidence and configured a local conflict as major geopolitical one. Pompeo has long looked for a pretext to overthrow the Iranian government...What Pompeo won’t tell you is that current Saudi crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman had launched a brutal air war on Yemen in 2015 in hopes of dislodging the Houthis, not because of any alleged Iranian connection but because Saudi Arabia had been used to having major influence on Yemen through dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh and had lost control when Saleh was overthrown by the 2011-2012 youth revolution. 

The Saudis, the United Arab Emirates and other allies have for nearly four and a half years intensively bombed Sana’a and other civilian towns and cities in north Yemen. About a third of the airstrikes have hit civilian structures, including apartment buildings, schools, hospitals, ports and bridges. Some 10 million Yemenis out of 28 million are food insecure as a result of the war, with cholera and other debilitating diseases rampant, and some estimates for the death toll from direct military action on all sides run to 80,000. 

Links to "The Intercept" article on Elliott Abrams appointment as Special Envoy to Venezuela and to "Democracy Now!'s" interview with Phyllis Bennis of the Institute for Policy Studies and Jewish Voice for Peace are below left and right, respectively.

SUNDAY SEP 22

(AFP) Iran: President Hassan Rouhani on Sunday denounced the presence of foreign forces in the Gulf and said Iran will put forward a peace plan, after arch-foe the United States ordered reinforcements to the tinderbox region.  "Foreign forces can cause problems and insecurity for our people and for our region," Rouhani said before a massive military parade marking the Iran-Iraq war. Rouhani also said Iran would present a peace plan to the United Nations within days.

SATURDAY SEP 21

Saudi Arabia: "The kingdom will take the appropriate measures based on the results of the investigation, to ensure its security and stability," Minister for State Affairs al-Jubeir told a news conference, declining to speculate about specific actions. 

Iran: "Whoever wants their land to become the main battlefield, go ahead," Iran's Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Salami told a news conference in Tehran. "We will never allow any war to encroach upon Iran's territory.  Be careful, a limited aggression will not remain limited. We are after punishment and we will continue until the full destruction of any aggressor," he said.

FRIDAY SEP 20

Houthis: "We declare ceasing to target the Saudi Arabian territory with military drones, ballistic missiles and all other forms of weapons, and we wait for a reciprocal move from them,"  Mahdi al-Mashat, head of the Houthis' supreme political council said on Al Masirah TV.  "We reserve the right to respond if they fail to reciprocate positively to this initiative," he said, adding that the continuation of the Yemen war "will not benefit any side".

THURSDAY SEP 19

Russia: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Thursday urged all countries in the Gulf to sit down for talks to defuse tensions following an attack on Saudi oil infrastructure...Speaking in Moscow, Lavrov called for measures to be put in place to stop a similar situation happening in the region again and said that groundless accusations against Iran over the attacks were inflaming tensions.

TUESDAY SEP 17

Germany: German Chancellor Angela Merkel has called for a return to the 2015 international deal curbing Iran's nuclear activities as the only way to defuse tensions in the Middle East. "We believe that the deal to stop Iran from acquiring military nuclear capabilities is a building block we need to get back to," Merkel said, during a news conference with Jordan's King Abdullah.