Below are posts from the World News/Foreign Affairs section of The Fray published before January 1, 2020

For posts related to the Middle East, click here.

North Korea Threatens to Call Off Talks with US 

Pyongyang cites military exercises and John Bolton comments

POSTED 5/16/2018

After indefinitely suspending the ongoing talks with South Korea in protest over joint US-South Korea military exercises, North Korea threw President Trump’s planned summit meeting with its leader, Kim Jong-un, into doubt on Wednesday, threatening to call off the landmark encounter if the United States insisted on “unilateral nuclear abandonment.”  Kim Kye-kwan, a vice foreign minister, rejected the administration’s demand that it quickly dismantle its nuclear program as Libya had done 15 years ago, singling out John R. Bolton, Mr. Trump’s new national security adviser, for condemnation.  Pyongyang was reacting to comments made by John Bolton in recent interviews.

Slate's Joshua Keating notes: "In several interviews, Bolton has cited former Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s 2000 decision to abandon his nascent nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief as a model for the “complete denuclearization” of North Korea. As Bolton well knows, North Korea has specifically cited the Libya example as a reason why it should pursue a nuclear deterrent: 11 years after giving up his weapons program, Qaddafi was lying dead in a roadside ditch following a Western military intervention. It’s hard to imagine a choice of precedent from Bolton that would raise more red flags with the North Koreans...Bolton upped the ante again over the weekend, telling CNN that in addition to denuclearization, the talks would encompass North Korea’s ballistic missile program, its chemical and biological weapons, and other issues...He suggested the talks could result in North Korea becoming “a normal nation, to behave and interact with the rest of the world the way that South Korea does,” which could be read in Pyongyang, given Bolton’s record, as a suggestion of regime change."  Keating concludes his piece wondering "why Bolton is the person Trump chose to advise him before he took on this ambitious and highly risky diplomatic project."

More news like this (World News)

South Sudan's Civil War - in its fifth year with no end in sight

POSTED 5/24/2018

South Sudan became a country in July 2011.  In December 2013, soldiers from President Salva Kiir's Dinka ethnic group tried to disarm Nuer soldiers perceived to be loyal to then-ousted Vice President Riek Machar, sparking fighting and inflaming ethnic tensions in South Sudan. In the ensuing civil war, at least 50,000 have been killed, 2 million made refugees, 2 million more internally displaced and nearly 5 million people faced severe food shortages. 

On May 9, after a year of relative calm, violence has again surged between government forces and the opposition.  The head of the United Nations Mission in Unity, Hiroko Hirahara, said at the time that this is linked to an upcoming round of peace talks. "Because if and when the peace process starts talking about the implementation of the agreement, these questions will come up: 'Where is your territory?' 'Who are you?' 'Which party are you representing?'" And yesterday, those talks in Ethiopia to revive South Sudan’s failed 2015 peace pact and end the country’s civil war broke up without a deal. 

Trump cancels summit with North Korea, then reconsiders

POSTED 5/25/2018

It may be a good idea if Mike Pence and John Bolton stopped appearing on news shows discussing the now disrupted peace efforts on the Korean peninsula.  "Taking a page from National Security Adviser John Bolton's playbook, Vice President Mike Pence threatened North Korean leader Kim Jong Un with regime change and a violent death if he does not cooperate with U.S. demands in his upcoming talks with President Trump."  (This Week,May 22)  Both put forward the regime change in Libya as the example for the talks.  Pence's comments Tuesday pushed Pyongyang over the edge. and North Korean vice foreign minister Choe replied with "a blistering polemic" that then set Trump off... 

Read more...

What Happened at the G7?

POSTED 6/13/2018

The Group of Seven (G7) is an informal bloc of industrialized democracies—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—that meets annually to discuss issues such as global economic governance, international security, and energy policy.  As has been the practice for several years, this year's meeting was held in a remote location (La Malbaie, Quebec, Canada) to avoid the anti-globalization protests that often accompany the event.  

Nevertheless, there was drama aplenty - not on the streets but in the meeting rooms as it more or less turned into a G6 due to President Trump's stand on tariffs and free trade.  On his way to Singapore for the summit with North Korea's Kim, Trump insulted G-7 host Prime Minster Justin Trudeau and refused to sign the communique from the meeting.  

"The remarks came shortly after Trudeau, the G-7 host, had projected an image of cooperation. At his closing press conference, he announced all G-7 nations had worked hard to finalize a joint statement, which largely committed them to keep talking on trade. “Those who doubted our capacity to work together will have seen our ability to deliver,” he said.  Trudeau also repeated statements he’d made earlier -- calling U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs “insulting” and pledging to proceed with previously announced retaliatory tariffs." [Bloomberg, June 8]  

The US joined Japan in declining to sign the meeting's G-7 Oceans Plastic Charter, which outlines a "resource-efficient lifecycle management approach to plastics in the economy."  

Singapore is a good second step

POSTED 6/13/2018

The first step, of course, was the ceaseless efforts of South Korean President Moon to get North Korea to the table, starting with the show of unity at the Winter Olympics.  The Singapore meeting would have been impossible otherwise.  But now comes the hard part - the months of negotiation needed to secure a denuclearized Korean peninsula. 

Trump's agreement to halt "provocative" military exercises is encouraging and was necessary to secure North Korea's cooperation.  Can the momentum be sustained? Or will Trump become discouraged or be dissuaded by his hawkish advisers Bolton and Pompeo when the inevitable difficulties arise in the negotiations?  

North Korea's downbeat view of the talks 

Calls U.S. attitude toward talks ‘gangster-like’ and ‘cancerous,’ rejecting Pompeo’s assessment

POSTED JULY 8, 2018

In case you were wondering what's happening in the talks on Korean Peninsula denuclearization: well, it depends.  Secretary of State Pompeo seems to think they are going well; North Korea, not so well.  This will be a long, drawn out process during which both sides will need to compromise.  Opinions differ as to whether the strongly worded message is just North Korean negotiating strategy or an expression of profound concern on the positions taken by the American negotiators.

From the Washington Post:

"In a sharp signal that denuclearization negotiations with North Korea will be drawn out and difficult, Pyongyang on Saturday lambasted the U.S. stance as regrettable, gangster-like and cancerous, directly contradicting Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s rosy assessment that his two days of talks had been “productive.” 

A harsh statement from an unnamed spokesman for the Foreign Ministry was carried on the state-run Korea Central News Agency just hours after Pompeo left Pyongyang on Saturday and told reporters that significant progress had been made “in every element” of what he characterized as “good-faith negotiations.” Pyongyang crushed that appraisal, saying the United States had betrayed the spirit of the June 12 Singapore summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un."

Moon Jae In Just Moved the Nuclear Talks Forward (Again)

POSTED SEPTEMBER 20, 2018

If we ever do get an agreement on denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, it will have been due to the relentless efforts of South Korean President Moon Jae In.  Remember the "peace Olympics" earlier this year with the Korean unity team and with the North Korean and American government attendees, somewhat glumly, at arm's length from each other in the same club box ? Remember the Trump pull out and then re-entry into talks shortly thereafter?  Well, with the talks at a seeming impasse over who would concede first, Moon Jae In has done it again.  

Moon reported "after more meetings this week with Kim in Pyongyang that North Korea has agreed to shut down a facility for testing missile engines in the presence of foreign experts, to potentially close its main nuclear complex if the United States makes an unspecified concession in return, and to improve North-South ties through measures such as beginning to demilitarize their heavily militarized border and reconnecting inter-Korean railways and roads." (The Atlantic, Sep 19)

There's still a long way to go - especially with Pompeo and Bolton dampening Trump's desire to strike a deal - but at least we have not been talking of a nuclear confrontation for a while.

Dawn of a new era of US imperialism in Latin America

POSTED NOVEMBER 15, 2018

UPDATED NOV 22 (Democracy Now! interviews with Noam Chomsky)

UPDATED JAN 18, 2019 (Democracy Now! interview with Venezuelan Foreign Minister)

Perhaps emboldened by the election of a far-right candidate in Brazil on October 28, National Security Adviser John Bolton gave a speech on November 8 that seems intended to usher in a new era of US relations with Latin America. It portends a massive escalation in US foreign policy: one where America is trying to dictate how three sovereign countries should operate.  

READ 

UN Climate Conference in Katowice, Poland 

POSTED DECEMBER 12, 2018

And in other news...Brexit, the Paris Riots, Peacemaking on the Korean Peninsula

POSTED DECEMBER 4, 2018

Brexit 

Great Britain voted to leave the European Union in a referendum on June 23, 2016. The success of the "Brexit" vote was in part due to a rising wave of anti-immigration sentiment - both from newer EU member nations and from non-European nations.*  Approval of the Brexit deal by the British Parliament must be completed by March 29, 2019.  But it has not been smooth sailing, and as Vanity Fair reports:

"After two years of fraught negotiations and a dozen ministerial resignations, Prime Minister Theresa May secured the European Union’s blessing on November 25 for a Brexit deal that would allow Britain to withdraw from the bloc with minimal economic damage. And yet, with only months remaining until the March 29 deadline, Parliament appears poised to reject the agreement, potentially setting Britain on course to crash out of the E.U. with no deal, no formal trade relationship, and an avalanche of new customs duties that would turn the United Kingdom into a geopolitical backwater."

On Tuesday, Dec 4, the European Court of Justice's advocate general issued a non-binding opinion on whether Britain could cancel Brexit without asking the permission of other countries. Reuters reports the ruling: 

“Advocate General (Manuel) Campos Sanchez-Bordona proposes that the Court of Justice should declare that Article 50 ... allows the unilateral revocation of the notification of the intention to withdraw from the EU,” the ECJ said. “That possibility continues to exist until such time as the withdrawal agreement is formally concluded,” it said in a statement, meaning Britain would have to notify the EU that it has changed its mind before Brexit day, on March 29, 2019.

The full ruling will follow within days, though it’s expected that the opinion of the advocate general will almost certainly be followed by the panel of judges. The case, brought by Scottish lawmakers, has met resistance from the U.K. government. The EU has also expressed concerns that such a unilateral power could destabilize Europe. (CNBC, Dec 3)

*The New Yorker Magazine considers the migration status of citizens of EU countries in Great Britain in "Britain’s E.U. Exit App Is About to Downgrade the Lives of 3.7 Million People": "When Britain leaves the European Union, on March 29, 2019, it will begin to detach itself from the bloc’s system of 'freedom of movement,' which allows people from twenty-eight countries to move around the continent, working and studying and retiring where they please. Next year, E.U. citizens living in the United Kingdom—an estimated 3.7 million people—will have to apply for what the Home Office calls “settled status.”

Paris Riots

"Central Paris saw its worst unrest in a decade on Saturday (December 1) when thousands of masked protesters fought running battles with police, torched cars, set fires to banks and houses, and burned makeshift barricades on the edges of demonstrations against the fuel tax increase. France will consider imposing a state of emergency to prevent a recurrence, a government spokesman said on Sunday, as peaceful protesters were urged to come to the negotiating table....In Paris, the protest began early in on Saturday morning as peaceful gilets jaunes arrived at the Champs Élysées to stage a march. The spontaneous citizens’ movement began in mid-November in opposition to rising fuel taxes but it has shifted into a much broader anti-government and anti-Macron protest movement about inequality and poor living standards. Slogans on Saturday slammed the centrist, pro-business president as a symbol of an elite cut off from the people." (The Guardian, Dec 2)

Peacemaking on the Korean Peninsula

Although the nuclear talks are progressing slowly, the leaders of the Korea's have been making strides in normalizing their relations.  The US wants to keep the pressure on denuclearization via sanctions, but this has not thwarted the peace making moves by South Korea's President Moon and North Korea's Supreme Leader Kim.  The Atlantic recounts recent events:

"The Korean War is beginning to end—not with the U.S. president achieving a dramatic breakthrough in nuclear negotiations, but with a series of incremental measures barely noticed outside the Korean peninsula.  Rather than Kim Jong Un trading in his nuclear weapons for a peace treaty, or the countries that fought each other in the 1950s finally proclaiming the end of the war, Seoul and Pyongyang have been dismantling guard posts, designating no-fly zones, and disarming what was once the most volatile place on the peninsula... By the estimation of the South Korean newspaper Hankyoreh, North and South Korea have already fully implemented about one third of the more than two dozen reconciliation agreements they reached in a pair of summits between the nations’ leaders in April and September....

"Of course, several of the meatiest measures require U.S. consent and are on hold. North and South Korea, for example, can’t collaborate on economic and tourism projects or actually get inter-Korean roads and railways up and running until international sanctions against North Korea are eased....But where Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in have freer rein and have arguably made the greatest advances is in enacting various accords to cease military hostilities between their countries."

Update: Brexit, French "Yellow Vests", Peacemaking on the Korean Peninsula

POSTED JANUARY 17, 2019 

The Brexit Fiasco

The UK is due to leave the European Union on March 29, but "Brexit" is running into severe difficulties in the UK Parliament.  On Tuesday, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May overwhelmingly lost a crucial vote on her Brexit plans in the House of Commons, the U.K.’s lower house of parliament.  May lost by 230 votes after lawmakers voted by 432 to 202 to reject the deal. Politicians from different political parties rejected the proposed Withdrawal Agreement, currently the only deal agreed with the European Union on how Britain should exit the bloc in March of this year.

A day after rejecting her Brexit deal, rebel Conservatives and Democratic Unionist party (DUP) MPs swung behind the prime minister to defeat Labour’s motion of no confidence by 325 votes to 306 – a majority of 19.  Britain is in a deadlock with no other Brexit option currently having enough support to pass the House of Commons.  Germany and France have signaled their willingness to delay Brexit as Michel Barnier offered to renegotiate with Theresa May in the event that she is able to build a majority with Labour in favor of a closer relationship with the EU. 

The "Yellow Vests"

It started as a protest against an increase in the fuel tax.  It is now a widespread movement against the high cost of living, pro-business tax measures and social service reforms (i.e., cutbacks).  This past Saturday, some 8,000 protesters showed up for “Act 9,” or the 9th week, of protests, marching from Bercy in east Paris to the Arc de Triomphe in the west of the city, in an attempt to reach the Champs-Elysées. At least 85,000 rallied across France.  

"The strength and endurance of the movement, which has no set structure, no clear leadership, and no political or institutional affiliation, has taken everyone by surprise, not least Macron. Since the first protest on November 17, the gilet jaune protests have eroded Macron’s ability to carry out planned reforms to taxes and social services, and have seriously damaged his public image. They represent the biggest threat to his popularity, his capacity to govern, and the centrist European liberalism he has become the global spokesperson for in the Trump era." (The Intercept, Jan 15)  

The "gilet jaune" movement is a bit like Occupy Wall Street, but with more confrontational tactics and a base that cuts across the political spectrum from the far left to the far right.  Although some worry that the far right could emerge victorious in the battle over the movement’s political identity, Waging Non- Violence notes that so far the "movement has rejected any affiliation to political parties or labor unions, and activists react forcefully to any group that tries to speak on their behalf or use the movement for political gains.....A clear political line has emerged — one with a set of demands primarily focusing on economic justice. This includes establishing a more progressive income tax and making large corporations like Google, Amazon and Carrefour pay their fair share of taxes, while supporting small businesses. But many demands also call for an end to the continuous gutting of public services: ending the closure of bus and train lines, schools, maternity wards, post offices, and re-nationalizing recently privatized public services like gas and electricity. Other demands center on wider social issues, like smaller classrooms from pre-K to high school, support for mental healthcare and ecological measures."

The Korea's

The peace talks between SK's Moon and NK's Kim continue to bear fruit.  Most recently, South Korea has dropped a reference to North Korea as its “enemy” in the military’s updated policy document, reflecting President Moon Jae-in’s initiative in achieving détente with Pyongyang.  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has sent a letter to South Korean President Moon Jae-in  calling for more peace talks between the leaders in the new year following their active engagement in 2018.

The denuclearization talks are going more slowly, with US officials claiming that North Korea has yet to put a "concrete proposal" on the table.  Trump visits Kim in a few weeks, hoping for at least an interim deal. Meanwhile, China and South Korea have vowed to work together for permanent peace on the Korean peninsula – just weeks before the anticipated second Trump-Kim summit.

Venezuelan coup is failing; opposition calls for military intervention 

POSTED FEB 25, 2019

If you have been following events in Venezuela in the national media, you have seen the blustering and threatening of the Trump administration against Venezuelan President Maduro.  The true story of the coup has been unreported on most news outlets.  I've posted previously on Venezuela  - Trump Watch, Sep 11; Fueling a right-wing coup in Venezuela, Jan 25; US-based plane caught bringing arms into Venezuela, Feb 9 - and also a more general piece on US interventions in Latin America - The Dawn of a New Era of US Imperialism in Latin America, Nov 15.  

Increasingly harsh US sanctions and the "aid" media event this weekend have failed to turn the Venezuelan military against Maduro or to get Maduro to step down.  Still refusing to negotiate with President Maduro, Venezuela’s opposition is now calling on the United States and allied nations to consider using military force to topple the government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.  For an alternate to the Administration's and media's narrative about the coup attempt and this weekend's events, Democracy Now! interviewed the Venezuelan foreign minister. [link below left]

Countering Hate

POSTED MAR 15, 2019

At least 49 people were killed in mass shootings at two mosques in the New Zealand city of Christchurch.  The attacks happened during Friday prayers.  New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the assault on the mosques appeared to be a well-planned "terrorist attack".  "This is, and will be, one of New Zealand's darkest days," an ashen-faced Ardern told a press conference.  Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison confirmed the suspect charged with murder was an Australian citizen and described him as "an extremist, right-wing, violent terrorist".  The 28-year-old suspect published a racist manifesto on Twitter before the shooting, then live-streamed his attack on Facebook. (Al Jazeera, Mar 15)

The Islamophobic shooter was inspired in part by the rhetoric spewing from the divider-in-chief and American white supremacist groups.  Salon reports:

[The suspect] appears to have posted his hate-filled manifesto online before the attack. In it, he rages against "Islamic invaders" who are "occupying European soil," and specifically writes that he used guns to commit this massacre in order to call attention to debate about the Second Amendment in the United States. The alleged mass murderer also wrote that he had donated money to American white supremacist organizations, and quoted the "14 words" pledge often used by white supremacists and neo-Nazis.

According to various reports, the alleged terrorist specifically cited President Trump as an inspiration. His online manifesto praises Trump as “a symbol of renewed white identity and common purpose.”  Friday's massacre appears to be another example of what is known as "stochastic terrorism" or "scripted violence." It is also another case study in how right-wing terrorists, with no official group affiliation, can be radicalized online.

There is a consequence to divisive rhetoric - especially when it comes from the leader of the world's only superpower.  Since Trump appeared on the political stage, hate crimes have increased here at home.  Salon continues: "There have been many documented examples of assaults and other forms of violence by Donald Trump supporters, in some cases wearing MAGA hats and other regalia, shouting his slogans or claiming to act in his name. These hateful actions have included the so-called MAGA bomber, the man who killed 17 people at a high school in Parkland, Florida, and the neo-Nazi mass murderer who killed 11 people at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh."

Evidently Trump's inspiration now extends across borders.  This was not the first time that Trump has been invoked as an inspiration by extremists outside our borders.  The Quebec City mosque shooting that left 6 dead in January 2017 was perpetrated by a man who "In the month before his rampage, he trawled the internet 819 times for posts related to Mr. Trump, reading his Twitter feed daily and homing in on the American president’s travel ban on several Muslim-majority countries." 

Words can be dangerous, and Trump appears to be getting no closer to modifying his authoritarian and violence-inducing rhetoric.  In a recent interview published for the far-right Breitbart website Trump again threatened violence if Democrats don't "support him."  He suggested that his supporters in the military and police would rally to his side in a way that would be “very bad, very bad” if things get “to a certain point.”  I'm pretty sure the military and police would not revolt and hold Nancy Pelosi hostage, but what about the unhinged extremists that find Donald so inspiring?

But the problem is more than the lone act of a psychopath or the rantings on white supremacist websites.  Farid Hafez of Salzburg University and The Bridge Initiative at Georgetown University put it this way in a Democracy Now! interview:

..we should not at all look at this incident as an isolated New Zealand incident, because we know that today, in our Western democracies, Islamophobia has become the mainstream form of racism that is shared by large parts of our societies. Many political leaders, not only on the fringe far right, but in the center of power, be it leftist nominally, Christian democratic nominally, or whatever, many of them share a dehumanized discourse on Islam and Muslims that can lead to these kinds of terrorist attacks. The dehumanization that we have been witnessing the last 15 to 20 years, at least, in the political discourse in most of the Western countries can lead to these kinds of terrorist attacks.

Haters will always be with us and, contrary to the 2016 bumper sticker, love does not always trump hate.  Still, as MLK said, "Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that."  The Southern Poverty Law Center monitors hate groups and other extremists in the United States and exposes their activities to the public, the media and law enforcement.  The SPLC also has some excellent resources to reduce prejudice.  The link below left teaches tolerance to young people [link below left].  

What about older folks? For our part, we should never let a racist statement go unremarked.  Without speaking up, the hateful racism and xenophobia become even more normalized than it already has.  But just saying "Not all Muslims are terrorists" or "Not all Latinos are criminals" will not help bring understanding.  AFSC has six tips for how to respond to such statements: avoid getting stuck in their racist assertion with nowhere to go, ask questions, avoid personal attacks, focus on a key word in the statement and shift the meaning in your response, avoid myth-busting - facts alone do nothing to persuade, and contrast the statement with shared values such as “Everyone deserves to live and pray in safety and peace.”   For more details, see the three links below right - the first and second are from the AFSC webiste; the third, a Facebook presentation.

The rise of the right

POSTED MARCH 23, 2019

In 2016, Donald Trump won the presidency of the US. 

In 2017, the far-right AfD finished third overall in the German national elections, and Marie Le Pen of the far-right National Front placed second in France's presidential election.  

In 2018, Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro— a far-right candidate from a fringe party who has expressed fondness for his country’s past military dictatorship — won Brazil’s presidential election.  

In 2019, Benjamin Netanyahu, battling corruption charges, is seeking to maintain his grip on power by embracing a coalition of extreme right-wing and racist parties.  Another Israeli politician released a campaign ad that promised if elected, he would bomb Gaza back to the Stone Age.  

The causes for this move to the far-right vary by country and continent and it has been some years in the making. At the root of the right's global success has been an appeal to ethno-nationalism, a populist reaction to globalization, and an inability of centrist leaders to provide new ideas for the concerns.

Israel

Netanyahu's Likud Party maintains its hold on power in Israel by its anti-Palestinian policies and fear-mongering.  The old game of fear of the Other - and what might happen if Labour returns to power.  They have been able to put in place an apartheid state guilty of numerous human rights violations and still continue to dominate Israeli politics.  With Netanyahu on the verge of indictment, this year's election will be interesting.  Trump apparently entered the campaign for the soon-to-be-indicted "Bibi" with his recent call for giving Syria's Golan Heights to Israel in violation of international law.

Brazil

Donald's newest BFF, recently elected Brazilian President Bolsonaro, won against an unpopular incumbent in the midst of a struggling economy, rising crime rates, and a corruption scandal.  "Bolsonaro, a Congress member and ex-military officer, started off his campaign as a fringe candidate from a fringe party who was mostly known for his streak of racist, misogynistic, and anti-LGBT remarks and for his professed fondness for the country’s brutal military dictatorship. But his promises to restore security amid endemic violent crime and to stamp out the country’s rampant political corruption won him support among voters looking for a change."  The jury is still out as to whether Bolsanaro's victory signals a general shift towards right-wing populism across Latin America.  "Next year the region will see presidential elections in Argentina, Bolivia, and Uruguay. So far, no Bolsonaro-inspired politicians have announced their intention of running." (Vox, Oct 28, 2019)

Europe

"Germany, Hungary, Poland, Austria, Italy, and others have seen growing far-right movements. The historically powerful center-left Socialist Party in Francelost big in the May 2017 national election and may take years to recover. And in Spain, the country’s traditional two-party, left-right structure has been upended by the emergence of two outsider parties...The 2008 financial crisis, an uptick in terrorist attacks on the continent, and millions of refugees moving into Europe fueled a backlash to increased globalization. Fringe political parties in Europe that already believed in curbing globalization took advantage of that growing sentiment.  Alina Polyakova, an expert on far-right movements and European politics at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington notes, “It’s not a new phenomenon.  It may seem like this is a sudden, surprising burst of momentum...but these crises have just given more fodder to parties that are able to mobilize support in a way the center is not.” (Vox, Oct 29, 2018)

USA

Trump's message to his supporters is often cast in populist tones - for the little guy and against elites.  He did it on the campaign trail and in the SOTU earlier this year.  A comparison of his rhetoric with the effects of his policies is telling. As Vox reported on this year's SOTU:

Trump’s tax cut helped the wealthy, not the working class, and his attempt to weaken Obamacare is taking away health care from Americans who couldn’t otherwise afford it. There’s no evidence his trade policies are helping the working class. His policies on immigration have terrorized an untold number of working-class migrant families, who live in fear of an ICE raid targeting their loved ones. 

Vox continues: "But like all myths, the central one in Trump’s State of the Union does contain a real message. The tension between Trump’s State of the Union message and his actual record reveals the core of his administration’s thinking: Not populism, but ethno-nationalism. An ideal of a country whose politics center the interests of one ethnic group, the white majority."

Will the fringe-right come to dominate globally as it has in the Republican Party here at home?  

The populist element of its messaging can be countered by policy changes that resolve the real issues caused by globalization and by placing the blame for those issues where it belongs - on the refusal to redistribute the benefits of globalization to the working and middle class.  

The racist and nationalist elements will be harder to counter.  It is easy to appeal to tribal instincts; difficult, to address those myths and fears.  It may take courageous, charismatic leaders like the late Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. to bring some sense to our nation and other nations.  Failing this, it may take a new, wiser, less prejudiced generation to show us the way.

Gaslighting: Neocon Exceptionalism vs Diplomacy and International Law

POSTED APR 10, 2019

Here they go again...Trump and his collection of neocons, Islamophobes, war mongers, and xenophobic nationalists have had a couple of interesting months exhibiting their distorted version of American exceptionalism and their disdain for diplomacy, international law and human rights.  That John Bolton is Trump's National Security Adviser pretty much says it all.  He is part of the neocon crowd that lied us into the Iraq War and showed utter disdain for the United Nations before, during and after his tenure as US Ambassador to the UN.  

Then there's Mike Pompeo.  His pick for the post of Special Envoy to Venezuela is telling*.  During his time in the Reagan Administration,  Eliott Abrams, an admitted liar in the Iran-Contra scandal, defended US actions in El Salvador, where tens of thousands were slaughtered with U.S support, and advocated for aid in support of a Guatemalan dictator convicted in 2013 of crimes against humanity and genocide.

Here's a partial list of what this gang has been up to over the past couple of months:

1. Trump shows up for the nuclear disarmament talks with North Korea on February 28 and hands Kim Jong Un " a piece of paper that included a blunt call for the transfer of Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons and bomb fuel to the United States."  It's a piece straight out of Bolton's playbook demanding a "Libya solution" for North Korea - an option that has been rejected previously by North Korea. (Reuters, Mar 29)  

The Gaslight: President Trump blamed the congressional testimony of Michael Cohen, his former personal lawyer and fixer, for the collapse in negotiations with North Korea over its nuclear program last week — continuing to vent about the investigations encircling him and his associates.

2.  After rejecting an offer of negotiations from Venezuelan President Maduro, the US increased the already brutal sanctions on Venezuela in an attempt to topple the government in favor of a right-wing coup leader.  Chosen for his refusal to negotiate with Maduro, "our man" is from a party that has only 14 of 167 seats in the Venezuelan Assembly. US sanctions have "destroyed the economy and created shortages of food and medicine, worsened everything and prevented the government from doing anything that they could do to recover from both the hyperinflation and the depression."  (Democracy Now!, Mar 14)

The Gaslight: Pompeo blames Cuba for Venezuela's troubles.  The rhetoric is part and parcel of Trump's ongoing efforts to reverse the steps towards normalization of relations with Cuba that was achieved under President Obama.  In an almost ridiculous gesture, the Administration is moving to end a deal allowing Cuban baseball players to sign contracts directly with Major League Baseball organizations. 

3. In an attempt to keep the far-right government of Benjamin Netanyahu in power in Israel, Trump calls for handing Syria's Golan Heights to Israel in violation of international law.  Netanyahu has said that he will annex the already illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank if re-elected and has promised to never let a Palestinian state exist.  

The Gaslight: Speaking to Jewish Republicans, Trump calls Netanyahu "your prime minister."  Trump continues to try to win  the Jewish vote in 2020 by denigrating Democratic efforts to honestly discuss the US-Israel relationship and with his unbridled enthusiasm for a regime guilty of war crimes and widespread human rights violations.  .  

4. On Friday [Apr 5] the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court said that her U.S. visa has been revoked...U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo [had] said last month that Washington would revoke or deny visas to ICC [International Criminal Court] staff seeking to investigate alleged war crimes and other abuses committed by U.S. forces in Afghanistan or elsewhere and may do the same with those who seek action against Israel. (CNBC, Apr 5)   In June 2018, the US left the Human Rights Council in protest over the calls for an investigation into the Gaza protest massacre.

The Gaslight: The Administration would have you believe that any investigation into US or Israeli actions are biased.  Amnesty International's response to the US leaving the UN's Human Rights Council was: "Once again President Trump is showing his complete disregard for the fundamental rights and freedoms the US claims to uphold...The USA is willfully choosing to undermine the human rights of all people everywhere, and their struggles for justice." 

5.  Trump purged the Department of Homeland Security.  "After firing Secretary of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen on Sunday, President Donald Trump purged the agency’s senior management on Monday...Trump adviser Stephen Miller, an immigration hard-liner, reportedly masterminded the DHS purge as part of an effort to crack down on immigration at the southern border...The New York Times reports that Nielsen drew the line at Trump’s 'clearly illegal' demands, including 'blocking all migrants from seeking asylum.' She also reportedly refused to resume family separations, despite Trump’s entreaties, because she did not want to violate a court order that currently prohibits the practice...Nielsen, in other words, carried Trump’s immigration crackdown as far as she could without risking contempt of court." (Slate, Apr 8)  

The Gaslight: Trump says his xenophobic immigration policies and hateful border wall are designed to keep us safe from the migrant hordes.  In reality they do no such thing.  Most drugs entering at legal crossing points, and immigrants commit fewer crimes than natives.  His policies have generated a breeding ground for human rights violations.  They are even failing as vote fodder for his ethno-nationalist base, turning off moderates and energizing progressives.  [Link to Democracy Now! interview below right]

6.  The Trump Administration thinks it can redefine the meaning of words as well as offer alternative facts.  "In an unprecedented move, the Trump administration has designated Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a foreign terrorist organization, resulting in sweeping economic and travel restrictions on its members. This marks the first time the United States has formally labeled an arm of another country’s military a terrorist group. The Pentagon and CIA opposed the decision, warning it could put U.S. troops at risk." (Democracy Now!, Apr 9)

The Gaslight: The designation of IRGC as a terrorist organization is just another step in the Administration's attempt to isolate Iran.  "In Iraq, for instance, the IRGC and the Iranians were, according to the Iraqis, the first ones to arrive, the first ones to send in ammunition and help in order to defeat ISIS. And according to the Iraqi defense minister, had it not been for Iran, Baghdad likely would have fallen to ISIS."  The long-term consequence of the action will be to make it more difficult for future US administrations to re-enter the JCPOA and to normalize relations with Iran. [Link to Democracy Now! interview below left]

*This corrects the original post, which attributed Abrams selection to John Bolton.

A Few Signs of Life on the Left

POSTED APRIL 17, 2019

Despite Netanyahu's narrow victory in the Israeli elections and Trump's avoidance of a well-deserved impeachment*, there have been some recent signs of liberal life in other countries.  The appeal of the authoritarian and nationalist right may be waning - if just a bit.  Slate reports:

• In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling AKP suffered a major setback in local elections, amid widespread dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy. The AKP lost control of the capital, Ankara, for the first time since the party’s founding in 2001.  

• In Brazil,far-right President Jair Bolsonaro is finding out that running the country is more difficult than attacking the people running it. Bolsonaro gleefully courted controversy throughout his presidential campaign with his praise for Brazil’s Cold War-era military dictatorship and attacks on racial minorities, LGBTQ people, feminists, the media, and environmentalists. But his approval ratings have taken a dive since January as his administration has been consumed with infighting and his inability to pass a key pensions system overhaul.  

• The European People’s Party, the center-right grouping in the European Parliament that includes France’s Republicans and German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats, voted on March 20 to suspend the membership of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz Party. ... Fidesz is known for its xenophobic rhetoric, ill treatment of migrants, and authoritarian attacks on the media, civil society, and academia. 

• In neighboring Slovakia, the presidential elections showed that liberals can also play the outsider politics game. Slovakia’s first female president will be Zuzana Caputova, an environmental lawyer and political newcomer who ran on a pro-EU, anti-corruption platform.  Her rapid rise was fueled by public anger and mass protests over last year’s killing of an investigative journalist and his fiancée. The far-right’s candidate was defeated in the first round of voting two weeks ago. In the runoff, Caputova defeated a veteran diplomat who made a last-ditch attempt to appeal to far right voters and paint her as an “ultra-liberal” for her support of gay rights. It didn’t work, and her election bucks a trend in the region after recent right-wing victories in Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland. 

In other elections news:

In the Ukraine, a strange scenario is playing out in the presidential elections there - one that resonates to a degree with the recent US elections.  The runoff will be between a comedian who plays the Ukrainian president on TV and the incumbent.  It's like Alec Baldwin facing off against Donald Trump.  In another, less hilarious, parallel, the Ukrainian election season was shot through with misinformation campaigns - some orchestrated by Russia.  The Atlantic reports on the Ukraine's efforts to curb this interference:

Kyiv isn’t just the laboratory for Russia’s information warfare tactics, though; it’s also a proving ground for possible solutions, where officials such as Zolotukhin, Ukraine’s deputy minister of information policy, struggle to walk the line between defending democratic discourse and trampling freedom of speech. As the United States prepares for another contentious presidential race and social-media regulation looks inevitable, the Ukrainian government’s efforts highlight how difficult it is to fight disinformation in a polarized information environment. 

Unlike Washington, which has mustered hardly any official response to Russia’s use of disinformation to influence the 2016 presidential election, Kyiv has taken action. In May 2017, Poroshenko banned the Russian search engine Yandex and the social-media networks VKontakte and Odnoklassniki within Ukraine, a decision backed by the MIP. A year later, the government blocked an additional 192 websites that supposedly had pro-Russian sympathies, relying on the MIP’s advice to compile the list. The bans have, in one sense, served their purpose; officials say that overt Russian-originated disinformation has decreased. Yet as Zolotukhin alluded to in his conversations with me, that has not meant Moscow’s goals have not been met. 

Update UKRAINE:  Ukrainian comedian, Volodymyr Zelensky, won the presidential election with 70% of the vote in the second round held on April 21. 

The first round of elections in the world's largest democracy began last week.  In India, voters are deciding whether or not to re-elect Prime Minister Narendra Modi and members of his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP.  Their votes will also make clear the country's level of support for a growing trend in India's politics: Hindu nationalism. North Carolina Public Radio reports:

The last five years under Modi have seen shifts, both gradual and not, as Hindu nationalists have grown increasingly assertive, inserting their priorities into Indian policy, laws and daily life.  "The shape of India is at stake," says Milan Vaishnav, who directs the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington, D.C. "One of the important things this election is going to determine is India's future as a secular republic that embraces pluralism and adheres to the founders' notion that India's unity is strengthened by its diversity."

Update INDIA (May 23): Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi swept to a huge election victory, giving his party a mandate to pursue policies that put Hindus first, are mainly business-friendly and take a hard line on national security. (Reuters)

There are numerous other elections scheduled for later this year.  Among the ones to keep an eye on are the general elections in Uruguay (October), Bolivia (October), Argentina (October), Spain (April), and Denmark (before June 17).  

Update SPAIN (April 29) : "In Spain, incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will retain his position after a general election on Sunday that also saw a far-right party make big gains. Sánchez’s Socialist Workers’ Party won 123 seats, an increase over the last election, but fell short of winning an outright parliamentary majority." (Democracy Now!, Apr 29)

* I am sure that no attempt to impeach Trump will succeed.  The Republican majority in the Senate makes impeachment impossible.  An unsuccessful impeachment attempt would virtually ensure Trump's re-election by energizing his base.  Nevertheless, a case could be made that Trump's actions have long since passed the point for which our country's founders intended impeachment.  The Atlantic's Yoni Applebaum makes that argument in his March article (link below left).

US-supported Venezuela coup attempt falters: military intervention still "on the table"

Report finds that US sanctions against Venezuela have resulted in 40,000 deaths since 2017

POSTED MAY 15, 2019

The right-wing coup attempt to oust Venezuelan President Maduro failed to gain enough support among Venezuela's military and has faltered.  After it became obvious that the coup had been aborted, the Trump Administration indicated that it would consider US military intervention to topple Maduro. "The Washington Post reports the staff of national security adviser John Bolton clashed with a top general during the meeting for not presenting sufficient military options on Venezuela. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told the Fox Business channel the Trump administration is ready to go to war in Venezuela." (Democracy Now!, May 2)

On May 2, a Venezuelan court has issued an arrest warrant for opposition politician Leopoldo López, who escaped house arrest earlier this week on the same day his protégé, Juan Guaidó, attempted to launch the coup. López is now staying in the Spanish ambassador’s residence in Caracas. 

Meanwhile, Russia has warned the US against military intervention. "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov Monday at the Arctic Council meetings in Finland. After the meeting, Lavrov again warned against a 'reckless military solution' in Venezuela."  (Democracy Now!, May 7)

"And in Washington, D.C., four activists remain in the Venezuelan embassy after police raided the building Monday night. Activists with CodePink, ANSWER Coalition and other groups had been occupying the building since late April at the invitation of Venezuela’s government, in order to prevent it being taken over by Venezuela’s U.S.-backed opposition, led by Juan Guaidó. Last week, authorities cut off water and electricity to the embassy." (Democracy Now!, May 14)

While US military intervention remains an as-yet-unused option, the US sanctions against Venezuela continue to kill.  "More than 40,000 people have died in Venezuela since 2017 as a result of U.S. sanctions, according to a new report by the Center for Economic and Policy Research co-authored by economists Jeffrey Sachs and Mark Weisbrot. The report examines how U.S. sanctions have reduced the availability of food and medicine in Venezuela and increased disease and mortality."  (Democracy Now!, May 1)

Countering the reactionaries

POSTED MAY 29, 2019

The far-right continues its global rise  

I was touring Budapest the day Donald Trump welcomed Hungary's prime minister to the Oval Office.  Our Hungarian tour guide thankfully made no mention of the visit.  Viktor Orban is the leader of the most right-wing government in Europe.  In power since 2010, the Hungarian leader has "accomplished many of the anti-democratic actions Trump can only tweet about. He has rewritten Hungary’s constitution and dismantled judicial checks on power, stifled a once vibrant media, forced a top university out of the country, and criminalized the activities of some human rights organizations. Meanwhile, he has won deeply flawed elections by vilifying migrants, Muslim “invaders” and the Jewish “financiers” that supposedly support them." (Washington Post) 

In the Middle East and Latin America, Trump is solidifying relationships with the far-right.  Speaking at the Old South Church in Boston, world-renowned linguist and dissident Noam Chomsky pointed out:

The Netanyahu election in Israel solidified the reactionary alliance that’s being established, all of this under the U.S. aegis, run by the Trump-Pompeo-Bolton triumvirate...The Middle East alliance consists of the extreme reactionary states of the region—Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt under the most brutal dictatorship of its history, Israel right at the center of it—confronting Iran. Severe threats that we’re facing in Latin America. The election of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil put in power the most extreme, most outrageous of the right-wing ultranationalists who are now plaguing the hemisphere. Yesterday, Lenín Moreno of Ecuador took a strong step towards joining the far-right alliance by expelling Julian Assange from the embassy. He’s picked up quickly by the U.S., will face a very dangerous future unless there’s a significant popular protest. 

Recent elections in India and Australia went to the incumbent right-wing parties.  In Australia, voters "contradicted months of polling and chose to retain the right-wing government of Scott Morrison, an evangelical Christian climate change denier."  In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a landslide victory over the Congress Party, "which attempted to paint him as a threat to India's secular pluralism, as voters responded to Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) doubling-down on Hindu nationalism and anti-Muslim rhetoric." In the UK, Conservative party candidates to replace the departing Teresa May are falling over themselves to declare their desire for a "hard" and/or "No Deal" Brexit

The recent European parliamentary elections saw mixed results with both left-wing and far-right parties picking up support at the expense of traditional centrist parties.  The Atlantic reports:

This is not how many expected these European elections to go. The prediction was for far-right-nationalist parties to display their newfound political influence. After all, since the last European Parliament elections, in 2014, the EU has witnessed traditional parties decline, new populist governments form, and even one of its member states vote to leave the bloc altogether. This prediction ultimately didn’t come to pass. Though the elections saw some far-right parties (such as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally) come out on top, they also showed decades-high voter turnout and a surge in support for smaller, pro-European parties (such as the Greens in Germany and the Liberal Democrats in Britain). Taken together, the results suggest that the EU has experienced not the predicted surge of the far right, but the hollowing of its center. Beyond which parties won the most seats—and which alliances will be buoyed because of that—the results foreshadow a European future increasingly influenced by diametrically opposing forces, and the divisions that come with them.

What can we do about it?

There are three possible approaches which, taken together, could bring about the just, peaceful and progressive global society that we desire.

1. Win hearts and minds - education and actions for social justice and tolerance

Groups such as the American Friends Service Committee and Waging Nonviolence have long given witness to non-violent international solidity and justice.  Both organizations provide educational materials and opportunities to get involved in social actions.  Newer social justice groups such as No More Deaths have come to national attention as Trump's anti-immigrant policies take their toll at the southern border.  Even in this age of increasing secularism, spiritual leaders and writers can play an important role (e.g., Pope Francis' encyclical on the environment and blunt critique of capitalism, evangelical author and theologian Jim Wallis' "America's Original Sin: Racism, White Privilege, and the Bridge to a New America"). 

A second path to winning hearts and minds is political messaging - a skill at which progressives have been remarkably inept.  It's not all the fault of progressives - the Right is far more adept at lying and generating conspiracy theories, fear, and hate.  Hate and fear sell much better than policy.  But, to keep true to its message, the Left must not sink to that level.  On the defensive side, we need to regain control of the truth - countering the lies and smears at every turn.  On the offensive side: divest campaigns from corporate financing; promote popular policies such as Medicare for all, tuition-free public college tuition, living wage legislation and environmental initiatives; overcome the national security fears by championing a just foreign policy; fund the programs by increasing taxes on the wealthiest and decreasing the bloated and wasteful military budget.

2. Win elections and drive policy - grass roots protests

Peter Beinart, writing in The Atlantic, argues that for the third time in a century, leftists "have a rare opportunity to make the country a more equitable place."  In the '30's, the Depression drove the demand for social change that eventually became the New Deal.  In the '60's it was the the lack of civil rights that brought protesters to the streets.  As Beinart notes, "Neither of the two great 20th-century efforts to legislate equality would have been possible had the American left not mobilized to demand them."

Now, in the 2010's, is awareness of current inequities and the dangers and divisions created by the presidency of Donald Trump enough to once more change the direction of the country?  The victories of left-wing candidates in the 2018 Democratic primaries and general election would seem to indicate that the time is right.  The "activist left has remade the Democratic Party in several ways. First, it has pushed Democrats, who in the Bill Clinton and Obama eras sought the approval and support of corporate and Wall Street titans, to treat monied interests as adversaries...The Democrats aren’t just changing their rhetoric and campaign-finance model. They are embracing Big Government policies dismissed as utopian or irresponsible only a year or two ago." The examples Beinart gives are free public college tuition and guaranteed Federal jobs in areas of high unemployment.

Of course, for progressive protests to matter at all, Democrats need to take back the presidency and both houses of Congress in the midst of an economic boom - something that has not happened in many decades.  Already Republicans are raising the spector of disorder to foment a backlash.  "Like their predecessors, today’s conservatives will probably spend the coming era accusing the left of fomenting radicalism and lawlessness. Like its predecessors, the third left will rise and fall on its ability to convince Americans that the true cause of radicalism is injustice, and the best guarantee of social peace is a more equal country. "

3. Organize internationally 

We can learn from each other.  A proposal urged by Yanis Varoufakis, the former finance minister of Greece and Bernie Sanders is the formation of a Progressive International to counter the right-wing international that’s developing.  In his talk at Old South Church in Boston, Noam Chomsky said, "At the level of states, the balance looks overwhelmingly in the wrong direction. But states aren’t the only entities. At the level of people, it’s quite different. And that could make the difference. That means a need to protect the functioning democracies, to enhance them, to make use of the opportunities they provide, for the kinds of activism that have led to significant progress in the past could save us in the future." 

Wikipedia provides a brief summary, calling the Progressive International "an international organization uniting progressive left-wing activists and organizations. Its main proponents are Bernie Sanders and Yanis Varoufakis and it was launched by The Sanders Institute and DiEM25.  Varoufakis, a co-founder of DiEM25, said in an op-ed that the Progressive International is created "to mobilize people around the world to transform the global order and the institutions that shape it". The Progressive International was launched on 30 November 2018 at a Sanders Institute event attended by many progressive politicians, economists and activists including Naomi Klein, Cornel West, Fernando Haddad, Jeffrey Sachs, Niki Ashton and Ada Colau."

A search for "Progressive International"on the Sanders Institute website will bring you to this page with links to more than 100 topics including "Denuclearization Means the US, Too", "How Progressive Cities Can Reshape the World" and "The Private Sector and Climate Change: Holding Corporations Accountable".

World News - briefs and updates

POSTED JULY 29, 2019/UPDATED AUG 9, 2019

VENEZUELA 

"Talks between the Venezuelan government and the country’s opposition are continuing in Barbados, the foreign ministry of mediator Norway said late last week in a rare statement about the progress of the discussions. This was the latest round of talks that began in Norway in May in an effort to resolve the stalemate resulting from Maduro’s disputed re-election."  (Reuters, July 24)

Update Aug 9: The UN rights chief has intensified criticism of US sanctions targeting Venezuela, condemning the latest measures as “extremely broad” with the potential to exacerbate suffering among an already vulnerable population. (The Guardian, Aug 9)

TALKS TO SALVAGE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

"Iran considers Britain's seizure of an Iranian oil tanker a breach of the 2015 nuclear deal, a senior official said on Sunday, as remaining signatories to the ailing accord met in the Austrian capital for emergency talks.  Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and Iran have been trying to salvage the landmark pact since the United States withdrew from it in May 2018 and re-imposed sanctions on Tehran, crippling an already weak economy....In May, Iran said it would disregard certain limits the deal set on its nuclear programme. After surpassing a cap on stockpiles of enriched uranium, Iran's atomic agency earlier this month said it has also started to enrich uranium to a higher grade than the 3.67 percent set in the JCPOA.  Iranian officials say all of the moves were 'reversible within hours' if the remaining signatories upheld their commitments." (Al Jazeera, July 28)

Update Aug 9: In a speech replete with both bellicose and conciliatory impulses, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said the Islamic Republic favored talks with the US administration if the latter lifted all the sanctions it reimposed following its withdrawal in May 2018 from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).  "Before everything else, they need to remove all of the sanctions regardless of whether they want to return to the deal or not, which is up to them," Rouhani told senior officials at the country's Foreign Ministry headquarters Aug. 6. (Al Monitor, Aug 6)

YEMEN CIVIL WAR

The war in Yemen can be stopped because the warring parties recognise a military solution is unattainable after four years of conflict and are working to pull back troops from a key port city.  UN envoy Martin Griffiths said on Tuesday all fighting sides and the international community support a United Nations peace deal brokered in Sweden last December and are making progress towards achieving it...Last week, a meeting between the warring sides, on the neutral ground of a UN ship in the Red Sea, brought a surprise breakthrough, with agreement on technical aspects of a ceasefire deal in the flashpoint port of Hodeidah. (Al Jazeera, July 23)

Update Aug 9:  Fighting between Yemeni government forces and separatists in the southern port city of Aden has continued for a third consecutive day, with reports of at least 20 people killed.  The violence in the seat of Yemen's internationally-recognised government threatens to open a new front in the country's devastating war, exposing a rift in a Saudi-led military alliance that has been battling the Houthi rebel movement since 2015.  At least five civilians were among the dead and dozens were wounded in Friday's violence, according to doctors and security officials who spoke to news agencies and other reporters on the condition of anonymity.  Much of the fighting between forces loyal to President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and a United Arab Emirates-backed militia is taking place in areas that are among the city's most populated, leading to serious concerns for the safety of civilians. (Al Jazeera, Aug 9)

MYANMAR/REPATRIATION

A top-level Myanmar government delegation began repatriation talks with Rohingya leaders in a Bangladesh refugee camp on Saturday, an official said, with many of the Muslim minority fearing for their safety if they return home.  Some 740,000 Rohingya fled a 2017 crackdown by Myanmar’s military and are living in squalid conditions in camps in Bangladesh’s south-eastern border district of Cox’s Bazar.  

The Myanmar team, led by permanent foreign secretary U Myint Thu, arrived in Cox’s Bazar on Saturday amid tightened security in the camps...One of the Rohingya leaders who joined the talks, Dil Mohammad, said the talks “went well” as he reiterated demands for Myanmar to recognise Rohingya as an ethnic group. “We hope this discussion will be fruitful. We told them that we won’t return unless we are recognised as Rohingya in Myanmar,” he said. Myanmar denies the minority citizenship and refers to them as “Bengalis” – inferring that the Rohingya are illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. (The Guardian/AFP, July 27)

Update Aug 9:  Israel’s sale of weapons to Myanmar has been criticised by the UN in a report calling on the international community to impose targeted sanctions and an arms embargo on the south-east Asian nation. The UN report found that Myanmar companies bankrolled “brutal operations” in villages in Rakhine state stormed by soldiers during which thousands were slaughtered, many were burned alive in their homes, and women and children were raped. (Middle East Monitor, Aug 6) 

Hong Kong students boycott classes as Chinese media warns 'end is coming'

Update Washington Post, Sep 4: 

After months of clashes and chaos, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam announced an end Wednesday to the extradition bill that touched off the territory’s worst political crisis since its handover to China. The reply from protesters and even pro-government officials was swift and sharp: too little, too late.   The dueling messages — an olive branch from Lam and rebuff from opponents — suggest little hope for a breakthrough to ease the increasingly violent confrontations playing out on Hong Kong’s streets.

Headlines and Updates

POSTED OCTOBER 24, 2019

Syria/Iraq

• The Turkish military has halted its invasion of northern Syria, after reaching an agreement with Russia Tuesday that would force Syrian Kurdish forces to retreat from a wide swath of the Syrian-Turkish border.  Syrian Kurds continue to flee to Iraq.  Convoys of U.S. troops have been departing northern Syria for western Iraq.  The Iraqi government responded that the U.S. does not have permission to station those troops in Iraq and the US has agreed to withdraw in four weeks.  (Democracy Now!, Oct 23)

Yemen

• Health officials in Aslam, in Yemen's Abs district, warn that more than six million children could be at risk of malnutrition if the war in the Arab world's poorest country continues. (Al Jazeera, Oct 23)

• Yemen's internationally recognised government and the Houthi rebels have agreed to set up four observation posts to monitor a fragile ceasefire in the flashpoint port city of Hodeidah, according to the United Nations.  In a statement on Wednesday, Abhijit Guha, the head of the UN' s Hodeidah mission, welcomed the establishment of the posts, which are designed to facilitate "direct inter-party de-escalation in flash point areas seen as susceptible to conflict. (Al Jazeera, Oct 23)

Hong Kong

• Police and pro-democracy protesters battled on the streets of Hong Kong on Sunday as thousands of people rallied in several districts in defiance of attempts by the authorities to crack down on demonstrators.  The crowd was estimated by the organizers at 350,000.  The demonstration came after a two-week lull. (Reuters, Oct 19)

• Hong Kong's legislature has formally withdrawn the controversial extradition bill that has sparked months of unrest.  (BBC, Oct 23)

Iran

• The Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign has not driven a wedge between Iran’s people and its government. That’s the main takeaway from a series of national surveys conducted by the University of Maryland and IranPoll, released this week.  Seventy-two percent now believe that the overarching lesson of the deal is that it isn’t worthwhile for Iran to make concessions because it can’t be confident that the other side will honor an agreement. (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Oct 19)

Venezuela

• Failing to achieve regime change, US sanctions continue to add to the misery in Venezuela.  The loss in oil revenue has been estimated to be as much as $16 billion/year.   Some 4.5 million refugees and migrants have fled Venezuela since 2015, according to official figures, but more are using illegal crossing points because they lack identity papers.  The crisis has worsened since the United States imposed sanctions, including on the pivotal oil industry, in an effort to oust leftist President Nicolas Maduro in favor of opposition leader Juan Guaido. (Reuters, Oct 23)

• President Donald Trump’s frustration over the failure of his “maximum pressure” campaign to unseat Maduro has spurred foreign policy aides to ready further U.S. actions.  The Trump administration is preparing new sanctions on Cuba over its support for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and is taking a “closer look” at Russia’s role in helping him remain in power. (Reuters, Oct 9)

Brexit

• After failing to get parliamentary agreement on a Brexit plan, Boris Johnson’s 31 October “do or die” Brexit deadline appears to be out of reach.   Britain will be left waiting for the EU’s terms for a further Brexit extension until Friday, with signs of momentum building behind European council president Donald Tusk’s plan for a delay up to 31 January. (The Guardian, Oct 23)

• UPDATE OCT 31: Prime Minister Boris Johnson has called for early elections to break what he cast as a political paralysis that had thwarted Britain’s departure and undermined confidence in the economy. The nationwide election will be December 12. (Reuters, Oct 30)

The bizarro world of Mike Pompeo

POSTED DECEMBER 18, 2019

Since replacing Rex Tillerson in April 2018, Mike Pompeo has engaged in some of the most antagonistic and undiplomatic statements of any US Secretary of State in recent memory.  We need to go back to the Cold War to see such jingoistic sentiment in that position.  He, like his boss, appears to inhabit an alternate universe - commenting on matters without any facts and producing policy that has little to do with diplomacy.  Recently implicated in the Ukraine scandal, Pompeo continues to bluster his way through reality.  Here's a rundown of some of Pompeo's more egregious actions and statements in carrying out Trump's agenda..

Iran

May 2018 - After Trump withdraws unilaterally from the JCPOA (aka Iran nuclear deal) in spite of Iran's complete compliance with the agreement,  Pompeo makes 12 demands for US to be part of a new nuclear agreement.  The demands are almost all outside the scope or in contradiction of the JCPOA.  Pompeo threatens "the strongest sanctions in history" if the demands are not met.

August 2018 - Trump administration reimposes the sanctions and warns that anyone doing business with Iran will not be able to do business with the United States

October 2018 - The UN’s international court of justice reprimands the US over its re-imposition of sanctions on Iran, ordering Washington to lift restrictive measures linked to humanitarian trade, food, medicine and civil aviation. The vote was unanimous.  The US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, reacted by announcing the US was terminating the 1955 Treaty of Amity, which the US signed with Tehran two years after orchestrating a coup to topple the elected prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh. 

November 2018 - The United States officially reinstated all sanctions against Iran that were previously lifted before the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA 

July - September 2019 - US-Iran tensions escalate culminating in Pompeo, without any proof, accusing Iran of attacks on Saudi oil facilities.  Yemen's Houthi rebels, whom Saudi Arabia has been fighting in Yemen, claimed responsibility for the attack.  Iran denied the accusations. On Dec 11, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the Security Council that it was  "unable to independently corroborate" that missiles and drones used in the attacks on Saudi oil facilities in September "are of Iranian origin" .   Wrong again, Mike.

Saudi Arabia

December 2018 - Ignoring the CIA's assessment that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman was involved in journalist Jamal Khashoggi's murder, Pompeo doubles down on the United States' support for Saudi Arabia.  Khashoggi had been critical of the Saudi war on Yemen and its war crimes there.  

Israel/Occupied Palestine

November 2019 - "In a move that reversed more than 40 years of U.S. policy, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the Trump administration does not consider Israeli settlements built on occupied Palestinian land to be illegal. This latest gift from the Trump administration to the Israeli right is inconsistent with international law, United Nations resolutions and positions adopted by the rest of the international community. Although it has no legal validity, the decision undermines the most fundamental precepts of international law, including the inadmissibility of acquiring territory by force." (Washington Post, Nov 20)

Latin America

April 2019 - Pompeo announces that the US will enforce a controversial provision of the decades-old trade embargo on Cuba that will allow US citizens to file lawsuits in US federal court against businesses that operate on property seized by the Cuban government during the revolution -- the first administration to do so since the law's creation in 1996.  He also accuses Cuba of "propping up" Maduro in Venezuela as the right-wing coup attempt against Maduro falters.

May 2019 - Pompeo says that "military action is possible" in Venezuela should things not go the way Washington wants them to.  

December 2019 - As people take to the streets to protest right-wing governments in Colombia and Chile, Pompeo alleges that Cuba and Venezuela had helped stir up unrest but offered few specifics to back his comments. 

Ukraine

"President Donald Trump’s ambassador to the European Union testified on Wednesday that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was “in the loop” throughout a months long effort by the president to pressure Ukraine to open political investigations into Democrats, directly implicating the secretary in the expanding scandal for the first time." (McClatchyDC.com, Nov 20)

"A tranche of State Department documents obtained by the advocacy group American Oversight suggests Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani discussed US-Ukraine policy as early as March 2019, further tying Pompeo to the ongoing impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump." (Vox, Nov 23)

Related: 

Saudi oil attacks

US-supported Venezuela coup attempt falters: military intervention still "on the table"

Trump fires Bolton but don't get your hopes up...Pompeo is still around

Nationalist exceptionalism and disdain for international law