Research Papers
Evaluating Copper Price Forecasts: A Meta-Study
Abstract: In the past decade, new machine learning models have been developed to tackle prediction problems such as copper price forecasting. Although machine learning models are famed for predictive gains, many do not outperform a simple benchmark: the random walk. By compiling a data set of articles from 2015 to 2026 that research copper price forecasting for both machine learning and econometrics articles, I examine what data are used, what models appear to perform the best, the frameworks and data transformations applied, and reconstruct the correctly specified random walk benchmark to evaluate which models accurately forecast copper prices. I find that only a handful of articles can be replicated, and very few beat the true random walk.
Using Economic Theory and MIDAS to Forecast Commodity Spot Prices: The Golden Touch Diagnosis from “Dr Copper”
Abstract: Metal commodities such as copper and aluminum are required to produce the emerging technologies like Artificial Intelligence and Electric Vehicles. The growing demand is met with mine production constraints and persistently high commodity prices, highlighting a need to understand commodity price dynamics. The empirical literature has examined several determinants with complex statistical models, but provide mixed results, relying on aggregated data. I examine the use of mixed-frequency data to outperform the random walk hypothesis and other proposed models with a Mixed-Data-Sampling (MIDAS) framework to predict non-ferrous commodity spot prices.
The Spillover Effects of Long-Run Military Spending and Arms Trade on Economic Growth
Abstract: I examine the spatial effects of arms imports on military expenditure to understand the long-run effects of economic growth. I use World Bank Indicators panel data from 1994-2022 across 139 countries. I use cubic spline imputation to fill data gaps. The results suggest that the military expenditure growth has a positive effect on real GDP per capita growth but diminishes with high amounts. As spatial effects were not previously accounted for, I find that there are only local effects from military spending, suggesting no spillover effects. Lastly, I find that armed labour is a good instrument in a long-run study for military spending.
Does The Presence of Interstate War and Its Intensity Hinder Gross Domestic Product Per Capita?
Abstract: I apply the Augmented Solow growth model with the standard estimation methods to explore dynamic and individual effects of interstate war and military spending on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. I use panel data from 1991-2023 across 97 countries from the World Bank Indicators and Uppsala Conflict Data Program. I use predictive mean matching imputation to fill data gaps. The results suggest that military expenditure has a positive and significant effect on GDP per capita growth, but quadratic military expenditure has a negative significant effect. Interstate war intensity have no significant effect on GDP per capita growth. The interaction between interstate war intensity and military expenditure displays no significance, but quadratic military expenditure does.
Economic Research via Employment
EV Battery Labor Market in Ontario - Ministry of Economic Development, Job Creation, and Trade
National Indigenous Business Landscape - Indigenous Services Canada
Other Projects
Animated Game Theory Simulation w/ Python - Personal Project
Drunk Driving Policy with Fixed Effects Models - University Assignment
Understanding Palestine GDP Using Time Series Methods - University Assignment
Examining Racial Discrimination in Crime Data and Gender Gaps in Gender-Based Labor Data - University Assignment
The Effectiveness of the Canadian Northern Economic Development Agency: Indigenous Economic Opportunities Programs - Term Paper
Regulations and its Effects on the Canadian Economy: Keynesian, Staples, and Other Macroeconomic Viewpoints - Critique Paper
Universal Basic Income, the Rise of Populism, and the Education System - News Article Response
Education and Development: Comparison between Sudan and South Africa - Presentation and Short Paper
Economic Growth and Development
Applied (and sometimes Theoretical) Econometrics
Conflict Economics
Political Economy
Economics and the Philippines
Economics and Canadian Indigenous Peoples
Cultural Economics
Financial Economics
Macroeconomics
Basically anything that sounds interesting (I love doing research, even when it is not related to the above listed topics)
Future Research
Does the FIFA Men’s Ranking Depend on the Economic Performance of a Country?
What is the Optimal Military Spending for an Economy?
What are the Effects of Religion on Economic Growth?
Can we Ace the Labor Market? A Perspective on the Labor Market where People Identify as Asexual
Kurds, War, and Political Stability
Does Size Matter? Approach to Land and Economic Development
Unstable to Emigration: Looking Political Stability and Migration
When Companies Leave, What’s Next? International Financial Companies in Foreign Countries
Are Autonomous Regions Economically Prosperous?
How Much Foreign Investment is Bad? Evidence from Countries that Rely Too Much on FDI
How Does Inefficient Taxation Hinder Economic Growth and Equality?
What is the Optimal Expenditure on Financial Literacy?
Where Does Money Go? Philanthropy and Economic Implications
2 Percent is All We Need: Rethinking Inflation and Economic Growth
Construction Industry Job Search: How does a Laborer Switch Companies? Or Leave?
Difficulty or Execution? What Matters More to People?