Human Cause

Tad Harnett

Image source: FellowNeko on AdobeStock

Humans can be unpredictable. Despite our own efforts and best intentions, we find ourselves being our own worst enemy.

"Since humans are the largest non-natural source of wildfire ignition, human activity always alters the observed ignition patterns. The precise impacts of human activity are difficult to estimate, as they include intentional fires escaping set boundaries, accidental fires due to ignorance of ignition factors, as well as arson" (Boegelsack et al., 2018).

Introduction

As our population grows, more individuals become potential sources of human ignition capable of increasing wildfire risk. Climate change and human ignition are inextricably bound. Effective preventive measures can reduce harms associated with human-caused wildfire, but how will they fair in the future? Unintentional fires and arson are some of the major human ignitions that lead to major loss of life and property.

Human Ignition and Climate Change

Spatial-temporal analysis of human ignition sources

Human actions are the major catalyst for climate change, but doesn't stay as a simple A-to-B interaction. There are cascading impacts that create positive feedback loops for further detrimental human behavior. Analyzing the history of wildfire data is pivotal to our future decision making abilities.

(Ziel et al., 2020)

Alaska has over 57 million acres of wilderness. In these areas where there are not many people, it is crucial to having preventive and surveillance procedures in place to stop isolated fires from getting out of control. In 1984, Alaska systemically changed how their fire suppression system was organized and has shown to have dramatic effects in cutting the area burnt by human ignition sources from 15% to 7% now (Calef et al., 2008). Alaska is in a unique position as well due to the vast part of their wilderness that is basically uninhabited, limiting the areas that can be effected by human ignition. The spatial-temporal data shows, quite logically, that human-caused fires were primary ignitions over lightening strikes within a 10km radius of settlements and highways (Calef et al., 2008). These areas are only developing further into wilderness as rural areas are becoming more attractive, and major settlements are expanding.

Fire suppression over time in Alaska

Image source: Escondido Fire

In addition to civilian causes of wildfire, there are calls for concern with intentional fires burned in order to decrease the impact of future fires. Previous wildfires are cited as being being effective in reducing future fires (Calef et al., 2008; Prestemon, Pye and Butry, 2002). Especially among lightning caused fires, "...current wildfire is negatively related to past wildfire for up to 12 yr" (Prestemon, Pye and Butry, 2002).

But human-instigated fire suppression techniques are often ineffective, and in some instances accelerate fires. Traditional permitted burns are shown to be unrelated to future wildfire area or even positively related to future wildfire. Lightning caused fires experienced a 2yr lag in new wildfire (Prestemon, Pye and Butry, 2002). While effective fire suppression reduces area burned during a fire, it can lead to many unintended changes in the ecosystem. Fire suppression prevents large-scale stand replacement and promotes the dominance of highly flammable black spruce across the landscape (Calef et al., 2008).

Furthermore the artificial suppression of fire impacts the species that are dependent on it for their biological processes and stunt the natural checks and balances needed for the ecosystems to adapt (Calef et al., 2008; Hering, Bell and Genton, 2009).

Ignition Focus: Arson

As human activity expands, so too does the risk of fire danger. “Between arson fires and accident fires there is significant clustering… both are caused by humans, we may expect them to both be occurring in or near locations where people recreate and live” (Hering, Bell and Genton, 2009). When using spatio-temporal analysis of wildfire ignition, it is unreliable to predict future occurrences of human caused burning. Controlled burns, as previously stated, is “somewhat less effective for arson-and accident-ignited wildfires” (Prestemon, Pye and Butry, 2002). These forms of human ignition are resilient to controlled burns and often intentionally challenging to predict by virtue of the crime.

Imgae source: National Trotguide

Arsonists set ½ million fires each year in the United States, resulting in over $3 billion in damages, 500 fatalities, and thousands of injuries. From the standpoint of wildfire, arson comprises a significant share of all wildland fires in many parts of the country, especially in populated regions. Hall reports that about 10% of property lost to fire is attributable to outdoor firesetting. Arson wildfires adversely affect wildland management of timber, water, recreation, grazing, and biodiversity (Prestemon & Butry, 2005).

When looking at these impacts, we often lose sight of the individuals involved in these incidents. Read the case studies below to learn more.

Image source: KATU News

Case Study: Arson

The 2022 Mount Tabor fires in Portland, Oregon stand out as a relevant case study of arson today. Over the summer of 2022, over 36 fires were started by arsonists in the Mount Tabor Park area. Major fears of the firefighters were that the combination of dry, hot, and windy environmental conditions would spur into an out-of-control wildfire. The fires were started mostly in the evening as well, so the effectiveness of putting them out would be diminished. The location as a major recreational area also makes it dangerous for the pedestrians that spend time there every day. Three suspects were arrested in relation to the fires on September 11, 2022. The apprehension was in large part due to the community efforts of the residents and public safety officials to effectively communicate and use their resources collaboratively. In the court records one suspect "...admitted he didn’t know why they were starting these fires and they were just being stupid..." (Iboshi, 2022). Charges were later dropped for all three suspects, but the investigation was still listed as ongoing.

This incident clearly depicts the spatial interaction found among arson and populated areas. The fires were a product of access and maturity. Looking beyond this one incident, the COVID-19 pandemic has stunted children's social and emotional growth and the effects will be far reaching. Without the same access to resources available in their communities, children will struggle to communicate their emotions and might act out in these destructive ways.

Image source: Zach Behrens

Case Study: Unintentional Causes

The "El Dorado Fire" of 2020 has become one of the most prolific examples of the destructive power of unintentional wildfires. With 22,000 acres burned, this fire stemmed from the use of a "...smoke bomb during a gender reveal" (Jiménez, 2021). In the wake of this fire 1 firefighter died, 2 other firefighters were injured, and 20 buildings were destroyed.

Wildfires like this are unpredictable. Prevention education can be helpful, but there are incidents where willful ignorance or negligence that are difficult to avoid. Stricter consequences can reduce the behaviors, but it will take a few more "El Dorado" level of wildfire to make an impact. The climate side of this problem creates a tinderbox for accidental fires to get out of hand when they otherwise might not have spread as far. Environmental and societal measures need to be used in conjunction to address both sides of this problem.

Looking Forward

The major concern of human ignition sources is the variety of inputs that lead to the output of a catastrophic wildfire near other inhabitants. The prevention and prediction required to mitigate this problem has to be specific and reproducible if it is to be impactful. Throughout this website, you will find discussions that paint a clearer picture of the residual impacts that we are left with after a fire. Successful fire prevention and suppression is a winding path that isn't perfect. With "a shared commitment and urgency" from our communities though, we can address these problems together (Iboshi, 2022).

Image source: Fresh off the grid

References

Boegelsack, N., Withey, J., O’Sullivan, G. and McMartin, D. (2018). A Critical Examination of the Relationship between Wildfires and Climate Change with Consideration of the Human Impact. Journal of Environmental Protection, 9, 461-467.

Calef, M. P., McGuire, A. D., & Chapin, F. S., III. (2008). Human Influences on Wildfire in Alaska from 1988 through 2005: An Analysis of the Spatial Patterns of Human Impacts. Earth Interactions. 12(1). 1-17. Retrieved Dec 10, 2022, from https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/eint/12/1/2007ei220.1.xml

Hall, J.R. (2000). U.S. Arson Trends and Patterns. Quincy, MA: National Fire Protection Association.

Hering, A.S., Bell, C.L. & Genton, M.G. (2009) Modeling spatio-temporal wildfire ignition point patterns. Environ Ecol Stat 16, 225–250.

Iboshi, K. (2022) Charges dropped against three Portland teens arrested in Mount Tabor arson investigation. KGW.

Jiménez, J. (2021). A couple face manslaughter charges after a wildfire started during a gender reveal party. New York Times.

Prestemon, J.P., Pye, J.M., Butry, D.T., Holmes, T.P, and Mercer, D.E. (November 2002). Understanding Broadscale Wildfire Risks in a Human-Dominated Landscape. Forest Science. 48(4). 685-693.

Prestemon, J.P. and Butry, D.T. (2005), Time to Burn: Modeling Wildland Arson as an Autoregressive Crime Function. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 87: 756-770.

Ziel, R. H., Bieniek, P. A., Bhatt, U. S., Strader, H., Rupp, T. S., & York, A. (2020). A Comparison of Fire Weather Indices with MODIS Fire Days for the Natural Regions of Alaska. Forests, 11(5), 516. https://doi.org/10.3390/f11050516

Previous Project: Climate Change

Next Section: The Plan

Page updated

Google Sites

Report abuse