Below we've posted (as of May 20, 2024) model-based forecasts for the 2024 season at the mountain sites.  Models were built with snow data and "growing degree days" as an index of heat accumulation predicting the daily presence and absence of individual species. 

Separate plots are shown for species richness and individual species occurrence.

These plots will be updated weekly throughout the butterfly season with empirical observations (solid dots), so you can judge the success of our predictions.  

Washington:  species occurrence*  --  species richness

Lang:  species occurrence*  --  species richness

Donner:  species occurrence*  --  species richness

Castle Peak:  species occurrence*  --  species richness

Sierra Valley:  species occurrence*  --  species richness

* Hotter colors on occurrence plots indicate higher probabilities of being observed in a particular part of the summer (see legend for probabilities along the right margin).  Species are organized by family and then alphabetically within familes; the species names are color-coded by family along the left: brown = Hesperiidae, blue = Lycaenidae, purple = Nymphalidae, red = Papilionidae, green = Pieridae, and the last species listed is in the Riodinidae  .  Open circles are visits to a site in which a species was not observed; solid dots are a positive observation.

Below we've posted (as of May 1) model-based forecasts for the 2023 season at the mountain sites.  Models were built with weather variables including April 1 snowpack, as well as previous-fall and winter temperatures. 

Separate plots are shown for species richness and individual species occurrence.

These plots will be updated weekly throughout the 2023 butterfly season with empirical observations (solid dots), so you can judge the success of our predictions.  The vertical lines in the richness plots represent the peak of richness from 2022 (red line) and the mean across all previous years (gray-green line). 

Washington:  species richness  --  species occurrence*

Lang:  species richness  --  species occurrence*

Donner:  species richness  --  species occurrence*

Castle Peak:  species richness  --  species occurrence*

Sierra Valley:  species richness  --  species occurrence*

* Hotter colors on occurrence plots indicate higher probabilities of being observed in a particular part of the summer (see legend for probabilities along the right margin).  Species are organized by family and then alphabetically within familes; the species names are color-coded by family along the left: brown = Hesperiidae, blue = Lycaenidae, purple = Nymphalidae, red = Papilionidae, green = Pieridae, and the last species listed is in the Riodinidae  .  Open circles are visits to a site in which a species was not observed; solid dots are a positive observation.

Below we've posted (as of May 1) model-based forecasts for the 2022 season at the mountain sites.  Models were built with weather variables including April 1 snowpack, as well as previous-fall and winter temperatures (thanks to Jim Thorne, UCD, for the weather data). 

Separate plots are shown for species richness and individual species occurrence*.

These plots were updated throughout the 2022 butterfly season with empirical observations (solid dots), so you can judge the success of our predictions.  

Washington:  species richness  --  species occurrence

Lang:  species richness  --  species occurrence

Donner:  species richness  --  species occurrence

Castle Peak:  species richness  --  species occurrence

Sierra Valley:  species richness  --  species occurrence

* Hotter colors on occurrence plots indicate higher probabilities of being observed in a particular part of the summer; species with the lowest probabilities merge with the background color.  Species are organized with the earliest spring species at the top, progressing throughout the season from top to bottom.  Open circles are visits to a site in which a species was not observed; solid dots are a positive observation.

All of our data are publicly available, see links below.  If you are interested in using the data in your own work, you are encouraged to send an email to Matt Forister (forister@gmail.com or mforister@unr.edu).   We will be happy to discuss ongoing projects and potential collaborations, and it is useful for us to know what the data is being used for.

Presence-absence data.  All sites through 2020.

Count data.  Five lower elevation sites, 1999 through 2020.

Latitude and longitude for the 10 sites.