Introduction

Comprising of six countries—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia—this region is simultaneously bound and divided by shared experiences and unique trajectories. As these countries strive to carve their own paths, they must navigate not only regional dependencies but also the complex allure of European integration. 

A glance back reveals a turbulent past, marked by Ottoman rule, Austro-Hungarian influence, and the scars of the 20th century's conflicts. The region has witnessed significant progress in recent decades. Kosovo declared independence in 2008, while Montenegro and Serbia gained independence from each other in 2006. All six countries aspire to EU membership, with all but Kosovo having candidate status and half of them officially engaged in accession talks. However, the ghosts of the past are haunting the present and future of the region. Neighboring relations, internal political issues, lingering ethnic tensions, and differing foreign policy stances continue to pose hurdles. Recent geopolitical shifts and uncertainties have further complicated their journeys. In the aftermath of the violent conflicts of the 1990s, relative peace has often been taken for granted. However, new conflicts around the world and a waning trust in democratic values are posing fresh challenges that threaten both the present and the future stability of these countries.

Trajectory of the Countries

Albania is actively engaged on EU accession talks and efforts to combat corruption are key areas of focus. Recent political instability raises concerns about democratic backsliding. Albania's involvement in the international arena has been constructive. Notably, it recently chaired the OSCE and held the Presidency of the UN Security Council, while actively advocating for regional stability and cooperation. Bosnia and Herzegovina's deeply divided political system hampers progress towards EU integration and internal reforms. Ethnic tensions remain a source of concern. Kosovo's internal political battles and disputes with Serbia overshadow efforts towards EU integration. The ongoing dispute over Kosovo's international recognition poses a significant obstacle to progress.  Montenegro has enjoyed significant progress towards EU membership, but concerns about corruption and organized crime persist. After many years of single-party rule, there has been a change in leadership recently. Additionally, tensions have arisen surrounding Montenegrin national identity, with some ethnic Serbs challenging the statehood and highlighting divisive historical narratives.  North Macedonia celebrated some milestones recently. After resolving a long-standing naming dispute with Greece, the country embarked on EU accession talks, offering a glimmer of hope for its future. Serbia's President and governing structures pursue closer ties with Russia while navigating EU accession talks. Balancing these contrasting alliances presents a complex foreign policy balancing act. Concerns about the state of democratic institutions and media freedom exist within the country and from international observers. The issue of Kosovo remains a hot topic.

The European Union and the Western Balkans: A Fluctuating Relationship

The EU's focus on the Western Balkans has fluctuated over the decades. The 2003 EU-Western Balkans Summit in Thessaloniki, building on the 1999 Stabilization and Association Process and the 2000 EU-Western Balkans Summit in Zagreb, provided a major boost and a promise of EU integration for the region. However, the world changed significantly after 2003, making the region's path toward the EU more challenging and, at times, the vision seemed unclear. In 2014, German Chancellor Angela Merkel introduced the Berlin Process, a regional cooperation platform aimed at fostering economic cooperation and dialogue to reinvigorate the region's EU aspirations. Although initially met with great enthusiasm, the process soon encountered obstacles and today stands at a crossroads. During the 1980s, President Reagan famously ridiculed the Soviet Union and its crumbling closed economy, using it as a stark contrast to showcase the success of democracy and market-oriented economies. Today, however, the narrative has shifted in unexpected ways. Cynical forces have gained traction, depicting liberal and democratic values as impediments to dignity and fairness, failing to meet the needs of all societal groups. This has, in turn, bolstered the appeal of authoritarianism, isolationism, and the suppression of civil and individual liberties, casting a shadow over the very principles once celebrated as pillars of prosperity and freedom. 

Economic Snapshot

Despite being home to six countries, the Western Balkans is relatively small in terms of area, population, and economy. The region has a combined population of approximately 17 million people, with Montenegro having the smallest population (~0.6 million) and Serbia the largest (~7 million). Together, these nations generate a GDP of roughly $157 billion, with Serbia leading in economic output. Key industries across the region include manufacturing, tourism, agriculture, and mining. Energy production is dominated by coal (around 70% of electricity), with Albania as a notable exception, relying heavily on hydropower (>90%). While some countries in the region struggle with high rates of migration, others attract significant foreign investment.