RESEARCH INTERESTS:  Decision Analysis: Theory and Applications; Probability Elicitation, Verification, and Forecast Combination; Big Data and Analytics; Crowdsourcing and Crowd-based Forecasting; Business Forecasting; Statistical Decision Theory; Risk Analysis and Management 
JOURNAL  PUBLICATIONS■ Jose, V. R. R. Forthcoming. Discussion of "Some Statistical Aspects of the COVID-19 Response.’"  Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A. [Link] ■ Borgonovo, E., V. R. R. Jose, M. E. Knowlton, J. Siebert, R. Shachter, C. Ulu. Forthcoming. Fifty Years of Decision Analysis in Operational Research: A Review .  European Journal of Operational Research. [Paper]■ Jose, V. R. R. 2023. Discussion of "Experimental Evaluation of Algorithm-Assisted Human Decision-Making: Application to Pretrial Public Safety Assessment."  Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 186(2): 106-107.  [Link]■ Lichtendahl, K. C., Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V. R. R. Jose, and R. L. Winkler. 2022. Extremizing and Anti-Extremizing in Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts. Operations Research, 70(5): 2998-3014 . [Paper]■ Petropoulos, F.,D. Apiletti, ... , J. Jeon, V. R. R. Jose, Y. Kang, ... , F. Ziel. 2022.  Forecasting: Theory and Practice. International Journal of Forecasting, 38(3): 705-871. [Paper] [Online Version] [Complete List of Authors]  ■ Borgonovo, E., G. Hazen,  V. R. R. Jose, E. Plischke. 2021. Probabilistic Sensitivity Measures as Information Value.  European Journal of Operational Research, 289(2): 595-610 [Paper] ■ Grushka-Cockayne, Y., V. R. R. Jose. 2020. Combining Prediction Intervals in the M4 Competition. International Journal of Forecasting, 36(1):178-185. [Paper] ■ Winkler, R. L., Y. Grushka-Cockayne, K. C. Lichtendahl Jr. V. R. R. Jose. 2019. Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective. Decision Analysis, 16(4):239-260 [Paper] ■ Jose, V. R. R., J. Zhuang. 2018. Incorporating Risk Preferences in Stochastic Noncooperative Games. IISE Transactions (Previously titled IIE Transactions). 50(1):1-13. [Paper] ■ Zhang, J., J. Zhuang, V. R. R. Jose. 2018. The Role of Risk Preferences in a Multi-target Defender-Attacker Resource Allocation Game. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 169: 95-104. [Paper] ■ Grushka-Cockayne, Y., K. C. Lichtendahl, V. R. R. Jose, R. L. Winkler. 2017. Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs. Operations Research. 65(3): 712-728. [Paper] [SSRN] ■ Payyappalli, V. M., J. Zhuang, V. R. R. Jose. 2017. Deterrence and Risk Preferences in a Sequential Attacker-Defender Game with Continuous Defense Effort. Risk Analysis. 37(11):2229–2245. [Paper] ■ Jose, V. R. R. 2017. Percentage and Relative Error Measures in the Evaluation of Forecasts. Operations Research. 65(1):200-211 [Paper] ■ Grushka-Cockayne, Y, V. R. R. Jose, K. C. Lichtendahl Jr. 2017. Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts. Management Science. 63(4): 1110–1130. [Paper] [SSRN] [Online Supplement] [2019 Award]■ Jose, V. R. R. 2016. Discussion on "Of Quantiles and Expectiles: Consistent Scoring Functions, Choquet Representations and Forecast Rankings". Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Theory and Methodology 78(3):547-548. [Paper] ■ Jose, V. R. R., Y. Grushka-Cockayne, K. C. Lichtendahl 2014. Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem. Management Science. 60(2):463-475. [Paper] [SSRN] ■ Johnstone, D. J., S. Jones, V. R. R. Jose, M. Peat. 2013. Measures of the Economic Value of Probabilities of Bankruptcy. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society. 176(3):635-653. [Paper] [Dataset (rar)] ■ Jose, V. R. R., J. Zhuang. 2013. Technology Adoption, Accumulation, and Competition in Attacker-Defender Games. Military Operations Research 18(2):33-47. [PDF] [Supplement] [Award]■ Johnstone, D. J., V. R. R. Jose, R. L. Winkler. 2011. Tailored Scoring Rule for Probabilities. Decision Analysis, 8(4):256-268. [Paper] ■ Jose, V. R. R., R. L. Winkler. 2009. Evaluating Quantile Assessments. Operations Research, 57(5):1287-1297. [PDF] [Journal] ■ Jose, V. R. R., R. F. Nau, R. L. Winkler. 2009. Sensitivity to Distance and Baseline Distributions in Forecast Evaluation. Management Science, 57(5):1287-1297. [PDF] [Journal] ■ Jose, V. R. R. 2009. A Characterization of the Spherical Scoring Rule Theory and Decision, 66(3):263-281. [PDF] [Journal] ■ Jose, V. R. R., R. F. Nau, R. L. Winkler. 2008. Scoring Rules, Generalized Entropy, and Utility Maximization. Operations Research, 56(5): 1146-1157. [PDF] [Journal] [Supplement] [Contour Plots] ■ Winkler, R. L., V. R. R. Jose. 2008. Comment on "Assessing Probabilistic Forecasts of Multivariate Quantities with an Application to Ensemble Prediction of Surface Winds," Test: Journal of the Spanish Statistical Society, 17(2):251-255. [Paper] ■ Jose, V. R. R., R. L. Winkler. 2008. Simple Robust Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results, International Journal of Forecasting, 24(1):163-169. [Paper] [Journal] [Online Supplement] 
OTHER PUBLICATIONS:■ Jose, V. R. R. 2024.  Behavioral Biases in the Uncertainty Quantification Process. Behavioral Decision Analysis (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol. 350), 41-64. [Link]  ■ Jose, V. R. R. 2011. Assessing Probability Distributions from Data. Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. John Wiley and Sons, New York, Volume 1, 183-190. [PDF] [Wiley ORMS] ■ Winkler, R. L., Jose, V. R. R. 2011. Scoring Rules. Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. John Wiley and Sons, New York, Volume 7, 4733-4744. [PDF] [Wiley ORMS] ■ Nau, R. F., V. R. R. Jose, R. L. Winkler. 2009. Duality Between Maximization of Expected Utility and Minimization of Relative Entropy When Probabilities are Imprecise. [Refereed] Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and their Applications (ISIPTA), Durham, United Kingdom. [Paper] ■ Jose, V. R. R., K. C. Lichtendahl Jr., R. F. Nau, R. L. Winkler. 2007. Comment on "Objective Priors for the Multivariate Normal Distribution." Bayesian Statistics 8, J. Bernardo, et. al. eds. Oxford: University Press, 557-558. ■ Nau, R. F., V. R. R. Jose, R. L. Winkler. 2007. Scoring Rules, Entropy and Imprecise Probabilities. [Refereed] Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and their Applications (ISIPTA), Prague, Czech Republic, 307-315. [Paper] 
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