Job Market Paper
From Fields to Factories: Malaria's Shadow and the Rise of Industry, with P. Buonanno, G. Lecce, and L. Ogliari [CEPR Discussion Paper No. 20394]
Abstract
Can disease eradication redirect structural transformation? We study Italy’s post-war malaria eradication, a national campaign that removed a spatially concentrated, seasonal constraint on agricultural production. Combining newly harmonized population, industrial, and agricultural data with historical malaria exposure and pre-eradication crop portfolios, we compare historically malarial agrarian zones with matched non-malarial zones in a difference-in-differences design. Formerly malarial areas moved faster out of agriculture and into industry after eradication. These changes were accompanied by higher agricultural output and land productivity, and by production more closely aligned with agro-climatic potential. Mechanism tests show that reallocation was strongest where pre-eradication crop portfolios required labor-intensive operations during the malaria season, with intensification and mechanization complementing the adjustment.
Publications
Local governance reforms and fiscal behaviour: lessons from the introduction of indirect mayoral elections in 1889 Italy, with M. Postigliola, and M. Rota, Forthcoming, The Journal of Economic History]
"What next? Nations in the technological race through the 2030", with D. Archibugi and A. Vezzani, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2025
"Landownership concentration and human capital accumulation in Post-Unification Italy (1871-1921)", Journal of Population Economics, 2023
"The agrarian origins of social capital", Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2022
"Is a European recovery possible without high-tech public corporations?" with D. Archibugi, Intereconomics, 2021
"A reconstruction of the Italian provincial population" with M. Rota and M. Postigliola, Rivista di Storia Economica, 2020, Errata corrige
"Determinants of Joblessness During the Economic Crisis: Impact of Criminality in the Italian Labour Market", with S. Fedeli and M. Onofri (ESM), Social Indicators Research, 2018
Working papers
Building Consistent Territorial Units over Time: A Graph-Based Method for Historical Municipal Boundaries in Italy, with P. Buonanno, B. Cattaneo, G. Lecce, and L. Ogliari [CEPR Discussion Paper No. 20714]
Works in progress
Agricultural Preconditions and Industrial Development: Evidence from the Cassa per il Mezzogiorno, with Sharp, P.
The paper studies whether public agricultural investment under Italy's post-war Cassa per il Mezzogiorno created market-access-gated preconditions for industrialization, using a Matching DiD design.
Public investment, Agricultural Enhancement, and Structural Transformation, with L. Bagnato
Other Publications and Policy Briefs
L’Italia della tecnologia: che cosa mostrano i brevetti? with D. Archibugi and A. Vezzani, Antonio, Policy brief (2). CNR - Dipartimento Scienze Umane e Sociali, Patrimonio Culturale, Roma, 2024
"La posizione dell’Italia nella attività brevettuale. Situazione attuale e prospettive", in: Relazione sulla Ricerca e l'Innovazione in Italia, with D. Archibugi and A. Vezzani, CNR Edizioni, Quarta Edizione, 2023
"Il dottorato di ricerca: una valutazione", in: Relazione sulla Ricerca e l'Innovazione in Italia, with D. Archibugi, M. Cellini, I. Di Tullio, A. Malgieri, L. Pisacane, CNR Edizioni, Terza Edizione, 2021