2022 NHL Draft Value Picks by Round
by E-Mac
Who doesn't love a bargain? NHL GMs and scouting departments relish value picks they get on draft days. So, who has top-shelf bargain prospect picking bragging rights this year? Well, for Upside Hockey, the clear winner is Carolina followed by Winnipeg. Here is the number of savvy value picks by club:
5 – Carolina
3 – Winnipeg
2 – Seattle, Islanders, Dallas
1 – Nashville, Philadelphia, Buffalo, New Jersey, Los Angeles, Minnesota, Florida
0 – All others
Top three bargains by round
(Note: E-Mac = Upside Hockey's final ranking of the player)
Value Picks - Round 1
4 – Shane Wright – SEA - E-Mac – 1 – 68G Eq Pts in the OHL = 101.
Did he fall because of lack of elite production, bad combine interviews or the fact that his body and game are more mature relative to many others such as Slavkovsky and therefore he does not likely have the same growth factor in his future game? Whatever the answer, Seattle will be happy to have him and Beniers for the next decade as their top 2 centres.
17 – Joakim Kemell – NSH - E-Mac – 6 – 68G Eq Pts in the FIN 1 = 40.
How could the guy with the best shot in the draft class (or close to it for some) fall all the way to 17 th ? Two factors as I see it, the drop off in production in his play during the 2 nd half after his injury was disconcerting even though he partially redeemed himself at the U18s. The other factor is that there is just a limited stomach among NHL teams for under-sized wingers in the top 10 with Matthew Savoie being the only at 9 – Lekkerimaki, Nazar and Kemell missing out. Kemell could turn out to be a Caulfield-like addition for Nashville at 17.
30 – Brad Lambert – WPG - E-Mac -12 - 68G Eq Pts in the FIN 1 = 14.
Everybody’s pre-season top 3 to everybody’s whipping boy. The lack of results and poor decision making likely weighed heavily in the fall. However, in drafting the top skater (or close to it) in the draft class – speed, agility, pace, hands, zone entry, there I enough there to give Winnipeg (one of the top drafting teams for me) the strong potential of a second-line centre in their near future.
Value Picks - Round 2
60 – Gleb Trikozov – CAR - E-Mac – 22 - 68G Eq Pts in the MHL = 87.
The Canes had an A+++ if the draft was rated for the quality of their picks per drafting position and Gleb Trikozov is a prime example of why that is. He had the 2 nd highest point per game in MHL history at 1.29 - only Nikita Kucherov was higher. The combination of speed, skill (particularly stickhandling) and that elusive thing called creativity make Trikozov a player with one of the higher ceiling’s in this years draft. The draft was peculiar for players based in Russia in that some fell like stones and others more or less retained their value.
61 – David Goyette – SEA - E-Mac – 39 - 68G Eq Pts in the OHL = 75.
I think recency bias played a part in his drop as he really didn’t have a good U18. On the plus size you have decent results (1.11 points per game), a triple S rating on offense (speed, skill, shot) plus the creativity needed to make the physical skills work. All of the above sets the stage for a prospect with intriguing potential. Against the pluses you have the need to get stronger (particularly if you expect to play centre), the need to be less perimeterish, and the need to bring a stronger presence on defense. There is a strong base to work on Seattle; please bring out the best in this guy.
65 – Calle Odelius – NYI -Mac – 37 – 68G Eq Pts in the SWE J20 = 47.
This is a guy with high-end skating ability who finished the year as one of the prime defenders on Sweden’s gold medal winning team. However, confidence is a big issue with this guy as he can stink it up pretty good if he loses his confidence during a game. He also needs to bring more a physical presence to the back end. In addition, his offensive numbers are a bit inflated as he played behind an elite offense in the Swedish J20 league.
Value Picks - Round 3
69 – Devin Kaplan – PHI – E-Mac – 42 - 68G Eq Pts for the NTDP = 49.
Here is a big body (6’2, 199) who moves like you want a big body to move and provides a good level of compete – all in all there is second line potential there as a power forward. He also finished the season with his best hockey as he was a point per game at the U18s and had a +9 in 6 games. So why only the 3 rd round? Well, my best guess is he got identified as only a 3 rd liner as he spent most of the season on the checking line of a stacked USA NTDP team and therefore put up only modest points. This is a guy who could look good in a Philadelphia Flyer in the not-too-distant future. Going to Boston University this season.
71 – Alexander Perevalov – CAR – E-Mac – 31 – 68G Eq Pts in the MHL = 81.
This is a guy who tore up the MHL in the 1st half of the year with his creativity, great hands, shot, compete and results. Many said he compared favourably with Ivan Mirosnichenko. The second half saw a dip in his play whether it was due to lack of conditioning or losing confidence after playing in the KHL – I am not sure. For sure though, the recency bias and the Russian situation worked against him but for my money, Carolina got a 1 st round talent in the 3rd round.
74 – Victor Neuchev – BUF – E-Mac – 49 – 68G Eq Pts in the MHL = 75.
Buffalo is getting a guy with high-end creativity (or more like inventivisity – there should be such a word, c’mon Webster), great hands, passing and a carry the team on your back mentality. The Russian factor plus the lack of elite skating are the only major issues and neither are backbreaking to his future appearance in a Buffalo uniform.
Value Picks - Round 4
98 – Isiah George – NYI – E-Mac – 57 – 68G Eq Pts in the OHL = 23.
Isiah George is a prospect who has a good chance to play in the NHL due to his elite skating, good defense, notable PK plus a high compete level. However, he is more likely a 3 rd pairing guy due to his average hands and lack of creativity – still a good value for the Islanders coming in the 4th .
103 – Tyler Brennan – NJD – E-Mac – 63 – Save % in the WHL = .899 (playoffs .954).
Tyler Brennan is a big guy (6’4, 185) who had a great playoff after a wildly inconsistent season. He has the size and athleticism you want in a goaltender but needs to improve his consistency, rebound control and positioning if he has a chance to make it. He started the year as the presumed number 1 goaltender for the draft and finished with a fantastic playoff – however, in between there were issues as discussed above.
124 – Chaz Lucius – CAR – E-Mac – 48 – 68G Eq Pts for the NTDP = 50.
Cruz Lucius, the younger brother of Chad Lucius, a Winnipeg Jets prospect, had a year marred by injury and questions on his conditioning and stamina. While he has a nice shot and showed flashes of play making skills at the U18s, the inability to see him in top condition for much of the year led to his drop to the 4 th . Hopefully, next year will allow him to perform in top condition and show Carolina what a good decision they made when they drafted him at 124.
Value Picks - Round 5
147 – Maxim Mayorov – DAL – E-Mac – 74 – Save % in the MHL = .931.
Maxim Mayorov (6’5, 176) is the son of Vasili Koshechkin (6’7, 254) who at 39 is still one of the top goalies in the KHL. For Mayorov, it is all about projection as he has the size, agility, quickness, bloodlines and results that are absent from most of this year’s crop of goaltenders. His game is still at the unripe stage but Russian powerhouse, Loko Yaroslavl have taken note of him and he has moved to their squad for this season. Boom or bust at this stage but I like the potential.
148 – Otto Salin – LAK – E-Mac – 79 – 68G Eq Pts for the FIN U20 = 50.
Otto Salin had a rough season. It started out well at the Hlinka-Gretzky where he played well but it soon went quickly downhill when he suffered a concussion. His game never really recovered. For those of who had him rated higher than he went, it was because of his solid frame, decent shot, decent skating and a tough-to-pay-against mentality. He doesn’t have a high ceiling but there is a decent chance he will be able to show the Kings they made the right choice at 148 if he can play at top condition next year.
156 – Vladimir Grudinin – CAR – E-Mac – 70 – 68G Eq Pts for the MHL = 49.
I am not usually a fan of under-sized d-men. I have him listed at 5’10, 158 but have seen him listed recently at 5’10, 176 and he plays more like the later. He played for the Red Army team last year and I watched him closely in the playoffs, especially, when they played MHL powerhouse SKA-1946 St. Peterbsurg. He was the best player (in the games I watched) on either side for the series featuring Duda and Poltapov for the Red Army and Ivantsov, Kirsanov, Chibrikov, Koromyslov and Michkov for St. Petersburg. Without added growth and strength he is still likely to be on the outside looking in but he is close enough to the top of the hill that you are excited for the ride on the other side.
Value Picks - Round 6
175 – Fabian Wagner – WPG – E-Mac 87 – 68G Eq Pts in the SWE J20 = 60.
Fabian Wagner is a fast skating forward who is more likely to fit as a defensive forward with his strong defensive support and as the coach’s go to guy when the lead is on the line. While he has decent stickhandling and passing abilities, there is still a lingering question as to how much offensive upside there is which is probably why he fell to where he did at 175.
179 - Matthew Seminoff – DAL – E-Mac – 113 – 68G Eq Pts in the WHL = 61.
Matthew Seminoff is Mr. Up-Tempo with his relentless forecheck and puck pursuit, his doggedness on the cycle and overall hard work. He has a decent shot as well but not everyone is sold that his skills and skating are good enough for the next level.
185 – Servac Petrovsky – MIN – E-Mac – 112 – 68G Eq Pts in the OHL = 56.
The good: Shot, playmaking ability, cycle, forecheck, versatility, PK ability, and hockey IQ.
Need to improve: Skating, particularly his acceleration and agility. If he doesn’t progress, it will be due to the skating.
Value Picks - Round 7
205 – Alexander Pelevin – CAR – E-Mac – 68 – 68G Eq Pts in the MHL = 19.
How did Carolina get an Alexander Romanov type player and not even have to extend an offer sheet? Some teams are lucky, others are just downright good. Pelevin has great skating and physicality but limited offense and a just OK size – a nice find in the 7 th .
207 – Dominic DiVincentiis – WPG – E-Mac – 130 – Save % in the OHL = .907.
Decent-sized goalie (6’2, 184) with the right mental make-up who often out-played his goaltending partner, Montreal prospect’s Joe Vrbetic. He is still a long shot as most 7 th rounders are but there is a chance that Winnipeg made the right choice at 207.
221 – Jack Devine – FLA – E-Mac – 117 - 68G Eq Pts in the NCAA = 36.
Jack Devine is a player with the character and compete that you are likely to find on a championship team – well, like Devine’s team last season, the NCAA champion, University of Denver. He has a good overall game except that his skating lacks the acceleration and separation speed needed from a prospect that has good but not necessarily elite skills.
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