War in Ukraine and Ukraine
War in Ukraine and Ukraine
War in Ukraine
The richer side wins
From 1500 to the present, in great power conflicts, in 75% of the cases the richer side wins. The EU has 10 times the GNP of Russia. Things look grim for Russia! Let's dump Conservapedia's hyper Russophilia like a bad habit.
Please see:
Why Russia May Be Running Out of Time in Ukraine, October 2025
Other
Estimate Ukrainian military and economic power for the years 2030 and 2040. Give scenarios and probabilities , Grok 10-7-2025
How well is Russia doing in the war in Ukraine? Grok 10-3-2025.
Odds of Putin Achieving a "Victory" Perceived by the Russian Public
Estimating the likelihood of Vladimir Putin achieving results in the Russia-Ukraine war that the Russian public would consider a victory is complex, as it depends on battlefield outcomes, domestic propaganda, and public expectations shaped by state-controlled media. As of October 3, 2025, I assess the odds of Putin achieving a perceived victory at 20-30%, with a "victory" defined as territorial gains (e.g., full control of Donetsk and Luhansk) and/or a negotiated settlement that Russia can frame as meeting its core demands (e.g., Ukraine's neutrality, recognition of annexed territories). This low probability reflects Russia's unsustainable losses, economic strain, and Ukraine's resilience, despite Russia's numerical advantages.
Summary: "As of October 2025, some Russians, including prominent nationalists like Maksim Kalashnikov and Girking, are publicly discussing the possibility of defeat in the Ukraine war, citing unsustainable casualties (over 700,000 personnel), economic collapse, and stalled offensives. These views, amplified on platforms like X, contrast with Kremlin denials, reflecting growing frustration among pro-war voices."
Give scenarios of the future of the war in ukraine and their probabilities , 9-26-2025
Why Ukraine is winning the war , Financial Times, September 27, 2025
How long can Russia fight in Ukraine without taking a break:
How long can Russia fight the war in Ukraine without taking a break in the fighting? , ChatGPT (though 2027)
How long can Russia keep fighting in Ukraine without taking a break? , Grok, through 2027, but beyond if new source of funding
Russia can continue Russo-Ukraine War for 3 years with current sanction regime (One where Trump did not increase sanctions)
What the Next Round of Sanctions Against Russia Should Look Like , Foreign Affairs, 8-2025
Ukraine
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? - Polymarket
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025?
Christopher Caldwell
Why Are We in Ukraine? , 2022, Claremont Review of books
Volodymyr Zelensky - video playlist
Where the war may be headed (Takes the view that if Trump is elected, he will not be able to cause a speedy peace deal).
Prof. John Mearsheimer: Russia Will Defeat Ukraine, But Will The Fighting Ever End? 2024
How the war in Ukraine will end | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman - video
Failed peace talks and the war in Ukraine
The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine A Hidden History of Diplomacy That Came Up Short—but Holds Lessons for Future Negotiations
The Obstacles to Diplomacy in Ukraine , Foreign Affairs, April 1, 2024
Russian imperialism and what Putin may do in Ukraine (Western perspective leaning)
10 Maps That Explain Russia's Strategy , Forbes, 2016
Why should Putin negotiate? by the historian Sergey (Sergey S. Radchenko is a Soviet-born British-Russian historian). He tries to put himself in Putin's mindset as far as what Putin wants to accomplish.
To Run the World: The Kremlin's Cold War Bid for Global Power by Sergey Radchenko (video was made in 2024 after Russia did its February 2020 escalation of the war. Also, talks about present-day patterns and impulses in Russia's foreign policy. )
Prof. Kotkin: "Russia: Back to the USSR or Back to the Tsarist Empire?"
THIS explains why Russia starts insane wars by Vlad Vlexer - video
The Black Legend of Russian History - The Burning Archive Podcast Remixed - Burning Archive (Covers the topic of being excessively critical of Russian culture and painting the Russians as total monsters)
Pro-Russia leaning view articles/video on the war in Ukraine, but informative
The Military Situation in the Ukraine by Colonel Baud
Kim Iversen: Former NATO Analyst & Top UN Official Says THIS Is The REAL Reason For War In Ukraine , The Hill, 2022 - video
Real History Of Ukraine War with Col Jacques Baud RFK Jr. Podcast, 2024
How to Think About Vladimir Putin, 2017, Christopher Caldwell, Senior Fellow, The Claremont InstituteAuthor, The Age of Entitlement: America Since the Sixties
Vladimir Putin page
Vladimir Putin Page - Google sites
Russia page