Russia

Russia punching above its demographic weight?

Why does the usa punch so high above their weight? Does Russia punch above its weight mainly due to natural resources and having a priority of having a strong central government and military relative to the power and comfort of its civilian sector? 

Balanced view of Russia

I found a better sparring partner on matters related to Russia.

Behold!

• What do critics of Russia often get wrong about Russia? And why does this often happen? Tell me instances where pro-Russia commentators were right and Western critics of Russia were wrong. Explain why this happened. What are the flaws of many arguments that Russia is headed towards irreversible decline? What are the strengths and weaknesses of Western-centric thinking? What are the strengths and weaknesses of Russian centered thinking?

Hyper Russophilia-Putinism in the USA

Probability that Hyper Russophilia-Putinism Will Be "Stone Cold Dead" in the USA within 5 Years 

Estimate Russian power relative to other major powers for the years 2030 and 2040 Assume authoritarian regimes hide/distort national statistics.  Give scenarios and probabilities

What are the odds that Russia will decline generally across the board by December 25, 2035? Give me scenarios, probabilities and sources. , 2025 Grok

Estimate Russian power relative to other major powers for the years 2030 and 2040 Assume authoritarian regimes hide/distort national statistics.  Give scenarios and probabilities , Grok 10-7-2025

Russian power in decline: 

Decline of Russia - Google site

Russian Power in Decline , Milken Institute Review, 2022

Russian Power in Decline: A Demographic and Human Resource Perspective , American Enterprise Institute, 2022

Still a great power? Russia’s status dilemmas post-Ukraine war , 2023

Putin’s failing Ukraine invasion proves Russia is no superpower , 2022

US-Russia relations

On scale from 1 to 100 where 1 is very bad, how bad are USA-Russia relations? In 5 years, what would you expect USA-Russia relations to be numerically like on this scale?  If Russia gets weaker as a power, would this likely hurt or improve US-Russia relations?  , Grok 10-5-2025

On scale from 1 to 100 where 1 is very bad, how bad are USA-Russia relations? In 5 years, what would you expect USA-Russia relations to be numerically like on this scale? From 1850, what has been the average score on US-relations using this scale? What is the likelihood of US/Russia getting weaker/stronger as a power and how would this likely improve or hurt US-Russia relations. So what would likely be the post 2030 average score up until 2050? Please give a summary section. :

Summary: 

US-Russia relations have averaged a middling 42 since 1850, blending eras of alliance (e.g., WWII) with rivalry (Cold War, Ukraine). Today, at 15, they're near rock bottom amid war and sanctions, with a slight rebound to 25 by 2030 possible via dialogue. Russia's high-likelihood weakening will likely worsen short-term tensions but foster long-term gains if it prompts reform. Expect a 40 average through 2050—adversarial yet functional—in a multipolar world where mutual vulnerabilities (nuclear risks, China) outweigh isolation. Sustained Western unity on Ukraine and targeted incentives for Russian change could accelerate improvement.

Russia will become a failed state or it is a failed state

Please see:    Will Russia become a failed state within 10 years? Is Russia currently a failed state?   and    Russia will become a failed state or it is a failed state  

 Almost half of global strategists think Russia could become a failed state within the next 10 years, Fortune magazine, January 23, 2023.  

Russia has failed as a state , Modern Diplomacy,  2023

Could Russia Become a Failed State? , video

Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture | Janusz Bugajski , video, 2022

The Real 'Failed State' Is Russian Federation, Not Ukraine – Political Experts , 2023,  video

Robert Person - West Point scholar of Russia

 Robert Person 

Russian culture

Russian culture 

Russian greatness in history:

The Greatness of Russia in history 

Vladimir Putin page

Vladimir Putin page 

Russian economy: 

Putin Ally Warns 'Most Companies' in Russia at risk of facing collapse , 2024

2 Yale researchers are pulling back the curtain on Russia's sanctions-stricken economy — and it's landed them on a list of Putin's enemies ,  May 2024

Stephen Kotkin: Russia’s Murky Future | Foreign Affairs Interview   5/2024 , video

*Russia's economy faces an 'unsolvable trilemma' but can survive for several more years, think tank expert says  Russia's economy faces an 'unsolvable trilemma' but can survive for several more years, think tank expert says], Business Insider, 2024. "Defense and national security spending will account for 8% of GDP and 40% of all federal expenditures, Prokopeko said — the highest level since the Soviet Union's collapse. In boosting spending to such heights, Russian President Vladimir Putin is effectively dismissing brewing economic imbalances as other parts of the budget become squeezed. This shift toward a military-oriented economy could last up to eight years, she pred, but will come back to bite Russia down the road."

 Putin's trilemma  involves juggling the three balls of: funding the war in Ukraine, maintaining his populace’s living standards, and safeguarding macroeconomic stability. One of these balls will drop.

Economists who are very bearish about Russia's economy:

A Russian economic meltdown is coming next year, The Hill, 2024 ( Vladimir Milov, Anders Aslund and Jeffrey Sonnenfeld agree that Putin’s war is economically and thus militarily unsustainable. According to them, 2025 will be crunch time for Putin’s regime. 

Overly negative view of Russia: 

The Black Legend of Russian History - The Burning Archive Podcast Remixed  - Burning Archive

PeterZeihan and Russia

The Limits of Russia's War Machine || Peter Zeihan  - video

Russia and religion

Young Russians less likely to call themselves Orthodox , 2019