Decline of Russia - Google site
Summary: "Russia is in decline with an 85-95% probability, driven by demographic collapse, economic stagnation, and geopolitical setbacks. It is likely (80-90%) already a "weak major power" in decline, characterized by nuclear and UN status but crippled by structural weaknesses. If not yet at this stage, Russia is projected to reach it by 2026-2030 due to compounding economic and demographic pressures." - Grok 10-5-2025
Summary: "Summary: Russia is likely to become permanently stuck in the middle-income trap within 5–10 years (by ~2030–2035) if current trends of low productivity, resource dependency, and sanctions persist, with a less than 30% chance of escaping due to structural and institutional barriers. By the mid-2030s, the trap could become cemented, with escape highly unlikely even with Western rapprochement, as the war-driven economy, declining oil revenues, and weak reforms lock in stagnation, mirroring cases like Argentina and Brazil."
Summary: If Russia remains or becomes middle-income, a population decline to ~100 million (projected around 2070–2080 in the medium scenario) could erode its great power status due to reduced economic and military capacity. Scenarios include:
Medium (60%): Population hits ~100 million by 2070–2080; status erodes by 2100.
Pessimistic (30%): Faster decline to ~100 million by 2060–2070; status lost by 2050–2060.
Optimistic (10%): Decline delayed past 2100 via reforms; status retained longer. Middle-income constraints amplify demographic vulnerabilities, risking regional power status unless mitigated by policy or alliances.
Based on its current amount of influence, in terms of a percentage, how much less or more influence in the world will Russia have in 10 years? , Grok 9-26-2025, 20% less influence in the world.
What is the future of Russia 10 years from now? August 23. 2025: Bottom line: In 10 years, Russia is most likely to be weaker economically and demographically, increasingly dependent on China, and less globally influential than today—yet still capable of disruption thanks to nuclear weapons, cyber capabilities, and natural resources.
Russian power in decline:
Why I am not bullish on Russia
How fast is Russia declining?, Grok AI, 9-10-2025.
How fast is Russia declining?, ChatGPT AI, 9-10-2025
Regional power estimate
Estimate the time it will take for Russia to become a regional power. Give me a range and midpoint estimate, ChatGPT, 2025, 5-20 years, Midpoint 12 years
Estimate the time it will take for Russia to become a regional power. Give me a range and midpoint estimate, ,Grok , 2025, 5-15 years, Midpoint 10 years
Weak great power:
What is the probability that Russia is a "weak great power" , Grok, September 2025, 90%
What is the probability that Russia is a "weak great power"? , Chat GPT, September 2025, 100%/60% more quantitative probability
Demography:
Russia's Demographic Vanishing Act: A Warning From History , Russia Matters, August 06, 2025
Russia economic forecasts
Give me economic forecast scenarios for Russia's economy and their probabilities. , Grok, 9-25-2025
Give me economic forecast scenarios for Russia's economy for the year 2030 and their probabilities. , Grok 9-25-2025
Give me economic forecast scenarios for Russia's economy for the year 2040 and their probabilities. , Grok 9-25- 2025
Give me economic forecast scenarios for Russia's economy for the year 2045 and their probabilities. , Grok 9-25-2025
Other:
Shocking BRUTAL Statistics Reveal Why Russia WON'T SURVIVE , video July 2025
Russia's COLLAPSE Into POVERTY Is Worse Than You Think! , video, July 2025
Excellent arguments that Russia is no longer a major power (See also: Russia is a weak power arguments ).
Decline of Russia - Google site
Russian Power in Decline , Milken Institute Review, 2022
Russian Power in Decline: A Demographic and Human Resource Perspective , American Enterprise Institute, 2022
The US should understand Russia is a declining great power , Euro Reporter, 2025
Russia's demographic crisis and Videos about Russia's demographic crisis and Peter Zeihan's videos on Russia's demographic crisis
Still a great power? Russia’s status dilemmas post-Ukraine war , 2023
Why Russia's brain drain is the biggest problem facing its economy, 2024
Peter Zeihan on The Decline of Putin's Russia - video, 2022 (Peter Zeihan)
Russia is China's vassal state:
Russia is China's vassal state - video playlist
Russia is increasingly becoming a vassal state to China (See: Russia: From China’s Big Brother to Vassal).
Please see the political cartoon at: Why Xi can't solve Putin's Ukraine problem, Telegraph, 2023.
Economy of Russia:
Bank of Finland, May 2025: War has degraded Russia’s long-term economic outlook and business environment
A Somber Outlook for the Russian Economy , GIS Reports, October 2024
"The Russian economy faces an uncertain future, influenced by deteriorating population dynamics, sanctions, the Ukraine war, and global economic conditions. Modest growth is expected in the near term, but risks abound; tighter sanctions or escalating conflict could lead to renewed economic contraction." - What is the economic outlook for the Russian economy - Focus Economics, 2025
Long term economic outlook of Russia . Google AI
Decline of Russia blogspot
Water supply and sanitation problems in Russia , Grok, 2025
Russia: A land of potholes, bad roads and deteriorating car quality!
Problems with the Russian federal highways , Grok, 2025
Some Ukrainians' viewpoint:
Why Russia’s collapse is inevitable - And what comes next , Euromaiden Press, 2025
Videos:
The Roman Empire Reveals How Russia Will Collapse
Russia has gay bathhouses and saunas in both Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Russia has a low fertility rate, a high divorce rate and a high domestic violence rate . How committed to family values is Russia?: "The existence of gay bathhouses and saunas in Moscow and Saint Petersburg, while discreet due to social and legal pressures, points to an underground acceptance of diverse lifestyles, despite the government's anti-LGBTQ stance. This suggests a disconnect between state ideology and urban realities, where personal freedoms persist in private spaces. So, is Russia committed to family values? The government pushes a conservative ideal, but the low fertility rate, high divorce rate, and rampant domestic violence reveal systemic issues that undermine those values in practice. It’s more about political optics than a cohesive social reality—strong on rhetoric, weak on outcomes."
Stephen Kotkin, a prominent historian specializing in Russian history, argues that Russia has consistently been a "relatively weak great power" throughout its history. He emphasizes that while Russia has had periods of strength and influence, these high-water marks are often followed by periods of relative weakness, particularly when compared to other major global powers like the United States.
Here's a more detailed explanation of Kotkin's perspective:
Aspirations vs. Capabilities:
Kotkin highlights a recurring pattern in Russian history where Russia aspires to be a major global power but struggles to match its aspirations with its capabilities.
Internal Dynamics:
He suggests that internal dynamics, including corruption, economic challenges, and the nature of its political system, contribute to this weakness.
Dependence on Resources:
Kotkin points to Russia's dependence on natural resources, like oil and gas, as a factor that can make its economy vulnerable to global price fluctuations and external pressures.
Geopolitical Challenges:
He also acknowledges the challenging geopolitical environment that Russia faces, including the rise of China and the continuing dominance of the United States.
Historical Context:
Kotkin's analysis draws on the historical context of Russia, including its transformations from the Tsarist Empire to the Soviet Union and into the present-day Russian Federation.
Contemporary Relevance:
Kotkin's work is often cited in discussions about the current political landscape, particularly concerning Russia's foreign policy, its role in international relations, and its interactions with the West.
(Internet archive: Will Russia become a failed state within 10 years? Is Russia currently a failed state? Will Russia eventually become a failed state? )
Russian imperialism
Russian imperialism was never gone. We just stopped seeing it. , 2022
All Mr. Fraden had to do was a simple AI search to validate the claim, but he failed to do so. Here’s what I found:
Across the 18th and 19th centuries, Russia was at war for a substantial portion of the time—by most scholarly estimates, Russian forces were involved in wars or large-scale military campaigns for roughly 70 of the 200 years (about 35% of the total period).
Stephen Kotkin indicated that cnce the USA became a great power, then its relationship with Russia was generally sour/bad.
Pro-Russia media: