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Title: Data, Power and Emissions: The Environmental Cost of AI
(Alessandra Bonfiglioli, Rosario Crinò, Mattia Filomena, Gino Gancia)

Abstract: We study the environmental impact of artificial intelligence (AI) using a novel dataset that links measures of AI penetration, the location of data centers and power plants, and CO2 emissions across US commuting zones between 2002 and 2022. Our analysis yields four main findings. First, exploiting a shift–share identification strategy, we show that localities more exposed to AI experience relatively faster emissions growth. Second, decomposition results indicate that scale effects dominate, while changes in industrial composition exert at most a weak mitigating effect; at the same time, electricity generation becomes more carbon intensive. Third, AI penetration raises dependence on non-renewable electricity. Fourth, proximity to data centers is a key driver of this effect, as nearby power plants shift toward greater fossil fuel use. These findings suggest that, absent a rapid decarbonization of power generation, the diffusion of AI is likely to exacerbate environmental externalities through the energy demand of data centers.

Title: When Teachers Break the Rules: Imitation and Reciprocity in the Transmission of Ethical Behavior and the Role of Community Structure
(Victor Lavy, Moses Shayo) 

Abstract: We study how teachers' rule violations in grading affect students' ethical behavior, using administrative data that track teacher violations and subsequent student cheating on high-stakes exams. Exploiting within-student variation in exposure to different teachers, we find that students are significantly more likely to cheat when teachers break the rules to their detriment (giving exceptionally low internal grades). However, when teachers break the rules in their favor (e.g., by inflating internal grades), the response varies across community contexts. In homogeneous communities, students respond to favorable teacher violations by cheating less, consistent with reciprocal norms. In heterogeneous communities, both types of teacher violations increase student cheating. This pattern holds across multiple measures of community homogeneity, including surname concentration and residential clustering. Survey measures of mutual support, trust, and reciprocity between students and teachers support this pattern.

This presentation will cover the material of two related papers on organizational sabotage and unintended consequences of policy tools.

Title: Optimal Deterrence of Workplace Sabotage: The Unintended Consequence of Intermediate Fines
(Subhasish M. Chowdhury, Iryna Topolyan) 

Abstract: We investigate the effects of punitive fines on sabotage behavior in organizations. We consider a two-stage Tullock contest in which agents exert productive effort in the first stage. In the second stage, they can diminish the effort of the opponent by incurring a sabotage, which is costly due to a possible fine. This structure is common in the field, but new to the literature. We fully characterize the equilibria and show that sabotage decreases with an increase in the fine level. However, the effect of fine on effort as well as on payoff are non-monotonic. As an unintended consequence, for an intermediate level of fine the total effort and total payoff may decrease substantially.

Title: Organization, Sabotage, and the Unintended Consequences of Nudges on Non-targeted Behavior
(Subhasish M. Chowdhury, Joo Young Jeon, Maroš Servátka, Jiří Špalek)

Abstract: In organizational settings where relative performance is the key to success, employees often resort to sabotaging co-worker’s productive efforts. Since nudges have the potential to change people’s behavior as a cost-effective tool, we investigate experimentally the effectiveness of such a nudge – the presence of a social cue in the form of a pair of eyes – on sabotage behavior. We also examine whether the nudge effect can spill over to other domains of behavior. We find that the costless nudge indeed significantly reduces sabotage behavior. However, as an unintended consequence, it also results in a decreased productive effort. Furthermore, we find significant gender differences in the effect of the nudge. Implications for behavioral science and managerial practice are discussed.

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Title: Profit Shifting and Real Investment Activity
(Tobias Hahn, Dirk Schindler, Georg Wamser)

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between profit shifting behavior and real investment activity of multinational corporations (MNCs). We first model the three main channels of profit shifting and show that two of those affect investment behavior through their effect on the user cost of capital. For all channels, we identify conditions under which the minimum tax rate in the MNC affects investment in other affiliates. We test the theoretical predictions by using rich micro-level data on foreign affiliates of MNCs. Based on instrumental variable regressions and event study estimates, we find that the incentives to shift profits to low-tax locations reflect in the user cost of capital in high-tax countries. While the tax semi-elasticity of investment with respect to a one percentage point increase in the local statutory tax rate is about 0.45%, the responsiveness to the MNC-specific minimum tax is substantially smaller, however. Independent of user costs of capital, transfer pricing via intermediate goods also affects investment via the minimum tax rate. In sum, our results are informative for evaluations of measures such as the Global Minimum Tax.

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