Big changes are often associated with a change in fundamental beliefs. Strategy is about “seeing” contrarian futures – counterfactual states of the world that are valuable but unseen by most people at present. A first step in this direction is to systematically learn about contrarian futures – which means, systematically learning how to make the untrue true (Ehrig&Schmidt, 2022, Strategic Management Journal, open access):
Key to success is the imagination of causal steps to make a contrarian world true, and improve these beliefs by learning from "counter-theories": Make enemies your friends by improving your ideas by learning from arguments against them! Belief revision is a mathematical tool that allows you to do so in a rational way.