BARRE- Against the top-ranked Long Trail Mountain Lions, pundits and fans alike knew the Mid Vermont Christian Eagles would need a special performance to reach their first state final ever. 

It’s hard to think anyone could have predicted this, though. A 17-2 run in the final 6 minutes capped by an Abel Goodwin jumper with 5 seconds to go erased a 14-point fourth quarter deficit, sending the jubilant Eagles past the top seed and into the state final.

Both teams exchanged buckets for the first quarter, with neither side getting a lead past a single score. But a putback from Long Trail star Ty Dickerson with 30 seconds remaining in the frame pushed the Mountain Lions into the lead, and the period ended with his team leading 10-8. 

In the second quarter, the Barre Auditorium’s most famous trap was sprung yet again- foul trouble. After a 6-0 burst to start the period, both members of Long Trail’s frontcourt were sat down with their third fouls and the Eagles instantly responded, running off a 13-5 run to tie the game back up going into halftime. 

The third quarter would see the Mountain Lions finally take control of the game. After a even start, the freshly rested Ty Dickerson would continue to bruise the Eagles inside, converting off several nice dishes from his brother Jack and dominating the offensive glass as the Mid Vermont offense slowed. The biggest sequence of the quarter would come right at the end of it. Roman Goeppner pulled the Eagles back to within two points, but Aiden Tarbell would rattle home a three before Jack Dickerson made no mistake from a wide open look at the top of the key, pushing the Lions lead to eight points entering the final frame. 

And the lead would only be extended from there at the start of the fourth quarter. Interior buckets from Luca Goff and Jack Dickerson stretched the lead to 14 within the first two minutes, forcing Eagles coach Erva Barnes to use a timeout in an attempt to regroup his team. 

Sure enough, the Eagles would show life from the timeout. Joel Roberts nailed a deep three-pointer on the first possession before knocking two more triples down in the space of 90 seconds, slicing the lead down to just five. Roberts would continue his assault with a steal and layup to pare the lead to just 3, but Jacob Leary would muscle inside for a run-breaking bucket as the lead went back to five points. It would then be Abel Goodwin’s turn to get on the board, as the junior nailed a quick-trigger triple to pull back to within two points with 90 seconds remaining. With the clock running out, intentional fouling became the name of the game as the Eagles sent Leary to the line for a one-and-one scenario, but the senior missed his first attempt and the Lions lost possession. After a brutal turnover from Goodwin, Jack Dickerson would be sent to the line with 20 seconds remaining to seal the game, but yet another miss would give the Eagles one final shot. 

With 12 seconds remaining, Goodwin would attempt a three and while missing, an over-agressive closeout from Ty Dickerson would send him to the line for three attempts with the season in the balance. After splitting the first two tries, a short miss on the deciding attempt would seem to spell game over for the Eagles, but a great hustle play from Goodwin kept the ball in Mid Vermont Christian’s hands with an under-the-basket inbound situation with just 9 seconds on the clock. Barely beating the five-second count, inbounder Roberts found Goodwin who faked right, dribbled left and rose over three defenders to splash home the go-ahead jumper with just five seconds remaining. 

A long three-point attempt from Dickerson at the buzzer would miss, and the Eagles would storm the court in triumph after knocking off the top seed. 

“We worked on shots like that for so long with him….it didn’t surprise me that that was the shot he took or that he made it.” said Mid Vermont coach Erva Barnes of Goodwin’s winner. “It still doesn’t feel real, though.” 

On his team’s comeback, Barnes credited defense, noting: “For the first couple of quarters, we were trading buckets, matching offense to defense. When they got on the run, our defense slowed down….we fixed that, hit some threes….I still can’t believe we won.” 

The Eagles will face either Rivendell or Danville on Saturday for the state title. The Raptors and Bears face off Wednesday night. 

Long Trail. Mid Vermont Christian. When the dust settles Monday night at the Barre Auditorium, one of these two teams will be headed to the first state championship game in either team’s history. But who will win? The Raptors Nest presents its semi-final preview, looking at the two team’s personnel and schemes to determine who the winner will be. 

Guards: 

Long Trail has a solid, athletic duo in point guard Jack Dickerson and shooting guard Luca Goff. Both can stress defenses at all three levels and defend well. Goff is bigger and a better defender, while Dickerson is quicker and passes very well.  Mid Vermont has a fantastic backcourt. Shooting guard Joel Roberts is one of the best pure shooters in the state, a wiry athlete who needs half a second to torch a defense from behind the arc. But point guard Abel Goodwin may be even better. The junior can pass, shoot, defend four positions and comes up big in the clutch for the Eagles.  

Advantage: Mid Vermont Christian 

Forwards: 

Long Trail has a pair of very tall players at the forward spots. J.D. Redding uses all of his 6’5” frame to dominate on the defensive end and is an underrated shooter on the other end of the floor. Jacob Leary is a versatile threat from the power forward position, able to stretch defenses then get to the bucket with surprising quickness. Both are great rebounders. Mid Vermont’s frontcourt is the young and improving pair of Carson Meloon and Jadon Goeppner. Meloon is a solid power forward with solid touch from midrange and good instincts on the defensive end, while Goeppner is a scrappy battler in the small forward spot. 

Advantage: Long Trail 

Center: 

Long Trail may have the best center in the division. Ty Dickerson is a one-man wrecking crew in the low post, a player who combines brute force and finesse to dominate whenever he’s on the floor. Mid Vermont’s Roman Goeppner is right up there with him. A fantastic athlete and natural rebounder, the senior has come up clutch throughout the season and playoffs with big offensive rebounds when needed. 

Advantage: Even 

Bench: 

Long Trail only use two players off the bench, but both are great options. Aiden Tarbell is a natural shooter who can change a game if he gets hot, and Zach Wildman is a hard-running wing who thrives on the break. Mid Vermont does not use a bench. Barring an injury or serious foul trouble, they will not go to their reserves. 

Advantage: Long Trail  

When Mid Vermont has the ball: The Eagles run simple screen actions, looking to get Abel Goodwin downhill and provide options on the kick-out. Against Blue Mountain, they had success posting Goodwin up against a smaller matchup, but that’s unlikely to be found against the size of Long Trail. Defensively, Long Trail will likely deploy their tallest player in J.D. Redding against Joel Roberts to prevent the shooter from finding good looks, while matching up on size for the remaining matchups. In the two teams only matchup this year, the Eagles found success against some undisciplined help defense from Long Trail to get open looks. If that pattern repeats, Mid Vermont could score some serious points. 

When Long Trail has the ball: The Mountain Lions want the ball to be in Ty Dickerson’s hands on the right block whenever possible. The senior did a lot of damage the first time these two teams met, and could repeat the performance in this matchup. The zone defense of the Eagles will have to play almost a perfect game to control the big man, and even if they can the capable shooters of Long Trail can punish any overhelping. The offensive glass is also a huge factor- Long Trail rebounds extremely well and have the size advantage, but can they use it to the fullest? 

The Pick: On paper, this should be Long Trail. The Mountain Lions are bigger and deeper than the Eagles and have a less high-variance offense. But in practice? This is a toss-up. Guard play is paramount in Barre, and the Eagles have two fantastic options plus a zone defense that can gum up any offense that gets rattled by the stage. 

It’s really tough, but I have to go with Long Trail. The Mountain Lions can better handle foul trouble, the biggest killer of teams in Barre, and that gives them the slight edge to me. 

It was all chalk for the first round of the playoffs, as despite some fervent upset bids all higher-seeded teams advanced to the next round. With the quarter-finals now here, The Raptors Nest is here to provide a preview for all four games this weekend. 

#1 Long Trail vs #8 Arlington 

History: Long Trail won the two teams only matchup by 22 on February 7. A second matchup was canceled due to inclement weather. Long Trail defeated Sharon 97-53 in the first round, Arlington defeated Grace Christian 63-47 in their first round matchup. 

Long Trail will win if…they play the way they’ve played since January 17. On paper, this should be the least competitive of any second round, as Long Trail holds advantages in size, shooting, and rebounding. While defense has been a concern for the Mountain Lions, if they break 60 points, they’ll win. 

Arlington will win if…Cam Clark has another big game. The sophomore scorching Grace Christian for 30 points in the Eagles opening round win was not an outlier, and should he repeat his performance things could get interesting. A big game from Clark and a near-perfect defensive game could be the recipe for an upset, but it’ll be a tough task against the top seed. 

The pick: Long Trail by 15 or more. The Mountain Lions control the game and return to Barre for a second straight season. 

#4 Mid Vermont Christian vs #5 Blue Mountain 

History: Blue Mountain came from behind to beat the Eagles in Quechee on February 10th, the pair’s only matchup. The Bucks survived an upset attempt from Williamstown to advance, while Mid Vermont rolled past Twin Valley to get here. 

Mid Vermont Christian will win if…they hold the same level of play for 32 minutes. The Eagles had the Bucks on the ropes the last time the teams matched up, but let a lead slip in the second half and lost by 7. If Mid Vermont Christian want to make their first ever appearance in the Barre Auditorium, they’ll need a complete team effort on both ends of the floor for every minute of the night. 

Blue Mountain will win if…they get their close-game magic back. The Bucks had a worrying stretch at the end of the year, losing four of their final six games all by less than 5 points. With a frontcourt as talented as theirs, staying in games is not an issue, but closing them has become one as of late. If the Bucks can make big plays down the stretch, they’ll win, but that's easier said than done. 

The Pick: Blue Mountain by 3. Bucks come up big down the stretch and return to Barre in a classic. 

#2 Rivendell vs #7 Leland and Gray 

History: The teams met twice, with Rivendell blowing past the Rebels in the first matchup before winning a much closer game in Orford the second time. Rivendell crushed Craftsbury to get here, while Leland and Gray staved off a Poultney upset bid to advance to the second round.  

Rivendell will win if… they fix their issues from the line. Much of the reason for the closer rematch with the Rebels was a horrific performance from the foul line, especially in the fourth quarter. If the Raptors can stay ahead in the free-throw margin, they have the defensive quality to win the slow-paced duel this will likely be. 

Leland and Gray will win if…they remain patient. The Rebels played the Raptors almost perfectly in the rematch, controlling the glass and avoiding turnovers while hitting big shots of their own to keep the game close. A fast pace does not suit the Rebels, so keeping the game slow-paced and low-scoring is the best shot they have at making their first trip to Barre in 12 years. 

The Pick: Rivendell by 10. Raptors win a slugfest to advance to Barre for the third time in four seasons. 

#3 Danville vs #6 Twinfield/Cabot 

History: The rival teams have met twice this year, with Danville taking both matchups. The Bears got all they could handle from a young West Rutland team but managed to advance, while Twinfield/Cabot handled Proctor from wire to wire to get here. 

Danville will win if…the threes are falling. The Bears have a stronger attack from behind the arc than anyone in the division, but such reliance leads to a volatile offense that can put up 25 points in one quarter and 5 in the next. If the Bears can keep stable on offense and reduce turnovers, they should dominate, but two cold quarters could spell doom at this stage of the year. 

Twinfield/Cabot will win if…they can turn this game into a track meet. The athletic Trojans can run with just about anyone, and if they can take advantage of a cold stretch from Danville to jump in front, they could push this game to a tempo of their liking. If not, they’ll need flawless half-court execution and great ball security to make this a game against a team as electric as the Bears. 

The pick: Danville by 12. Bears hold off their rivals and make their first Barre appearance since 2020. 

Last year’s playoffs seemed to have two teams destined to meet in the final- undefeated Rivendell and 1-loss Long Trail. Of course, that outcome never arrived. Both favorites suffered heartbreaking defeats in the semi-finals, and 4-seed Blue Mountain would end up cutting down the nets after a dramatic final. 

This year? Long Trail and Rivendell remain the top two teams, but the field is more open than ever. 5 teams hold legitimate championship ambitions, and many lower seeds down the line could very well make the final four. 

With such an interesting field, The Raptors Nest has picked three teams at the three levels of seeding (1-4, 5-8, 9-16) to spotlight. Here they are: 

The Favorite: Long Trail 

When a team repeats a 19-1 regular season after replacing their coach and losing their top scorer, there’s something special about them. With the Mountain Lions, it’s immediately apparent. A titanic frontline led by star post player Ty Dickerson gives them the three tallest players in nearly any matchup, and they take advantage with a bruising, paint-centric offense that few teams can match up with. 

But they aren’t a one-trick team either. A dynamic pair of guards in Luca Goff and Jack Dickerson provide spacing and threat off the bounce, and Zach Wildman is the perfect bench energizer for low-scoring contests. 

The Mountain Lions broke through and made their first appearance in the Barre Auditorium last year. This year, they could very well go two steps further. 

Other Potential Teams: 2nd-Seed Rivendell are 13-1 in 2023 and possess a terrifying two-way attack backed by star power on both ends….3rd-Seed Danville defeated 3 of the top 6 teams in D4 as part of an eight-game winning streak to close the year. The Bears can shoot better than just about anyone in the division and have an athletic, havoc-causing defense. 

Non-Top 4 team with the best shot at Barre: Blue Mountain 

The defending champs might actually be favored to make it back to Barre. Not only do they boast a pair of senior stars with playoff experience and a brilliantly schemed defense, but they defeated their likely second-round opponent on the road just sixteen days ago. 

The catch? What happened in between that win and now. The Bucks dropped four of their last six, including three single-digit losses on home court. It’s worrisome for a team who’s calling card during their championship run was unflappability in the clutch, but the ceiling of this team is championship level and could very well prove that in the next two weeks.

Other Potential Teams: In their first year in Division 4, Leland and Gray could make some noise in the playoffs. The Rebels have played a lot of good teams close, including their likely second round opponent Rivendell. If bounces go the right way, they may join their female counterparts as first-time semifinalists….Sixth-seed Twinfield/Cabot have athleticism in bunches but are inconsistent. If they can put together four great quarters, they could stun almost anyone in front of them. 

Underdog to watch: Williamstown 

Returning to Division 4 for the first time in over a decade, the Blue Devils brought their Capital League schedule with them. Said schedule, comprising some of the top teams of divisions 2 and 3, sends the Devils into the playoffs more battle-tested then just about anyone in the field. While they would be more of a credible threat if they produced stronger scores against said elite competition, no team has a better shot at pulling an upset than them. 

Other Potential Teams: West Rutland are extremely young but have put together a solid stretch of games to close this season. However unlikely it could be, young teams can often be fearless and get surprising results….Poultney enter having won 3 of their final 4 games and they’ve looked impressive. They may just do what their girls team couldn’t do and defeat Leland and Gray in Townshend. 

Predictions: Instead of picking all at once, The Raptors Nest will release round previews on February 28, March 3, March 8 and March 11. Included in each of those previews will be the picks.