My primary research area analyzes the macro-fiscal transmission of shocks to public debt and economic activity. I quantify how global financial conditions, geopolitical risks, financial stress, and natural disasters transmit through the yield curve, investor base, and debt composition. This strand aims to produce market-consistent macro-fiscal evidence that can inform debt-management decisions.
My second research area focuses on designing fiscal policy responses to economic and social challenges. Anchored in the allocation, stabilization, and equity functions of fiscal policy, I develop macro-level policy solutions informed by micro-level evidence in domains where public intervention is warranted.
Selected Papers
2025
Oluklulu, S., & Kasal, S. (2025). What is the role of fiscal policy in reducing CO2 emissions? Evidence from different income groups. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 12(1), 591.
2024
Kasal, S. (2024). Unveiling the impact of geopolitical risks on Turkish economy and fiscal dynamics. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 46(1), 221-232.
Kasal, S. (2024). Government domestic debt, credit market and crowding-out effect in Türkiye. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 9(4), 854-876. (in Turkish)
Tosunoğlu, Ş., & Kasal, S. (2024). Assessing the influence of earthquakes on sovereign credit risk: An event study on CDS market dynamics of selected countries. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 22(2), 29-43.
2023
Kasal, S. (2023). What are the effects of financial stress on economic activity and government debt? An empirical examination in an emerging economy. Borsa Istanbul Review, 23(1), 254-267.
Kasal, S. (2023). The role of global financial risk shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations and government debt: The case of Türkiye. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(2), 337-360.
Kasal, S. (2023). Analysing the Armey curve based on the Fourier cointegration approach for Turkey. Economic Annals, 68(236), 139-158.
Kasal, S., & Tosunoğlu, Ş., (2023). Fiscal Stance and inflation expectations in Turkey: A markov regime switching analysis. Current Debates on Public Finance Theory and Practice (pp.11-23), Berlin: Peter Lang Publishing, Inc.
Kasal, S., & Tosunoğlu, Ş., (2023). Yabancı para cinsinden devlet iç borçlanması: Türkiye için önemli bir risk kaynağı mı?. Maliye Araştırmaları-5 (pp.1-20), İstanbul: Oniki Levha Yayıncılık AŞ. (in Turkish)
2022
Kasal, S., & Tosunoglu, S. (2022). Effects of fiscal policy uncertainty on Turkish economy. Prague Economic Papers, 31(6), 538-566.
Kasal, S., (2022). A study on government expenditures-revenues nexus in Turkey: Evidence from fourier causality approach. Interdisciplinary Public Finance, Business and Economics Studies–Volume V (pp.85-100), Berlin: Peter Lang Verlag.