Job Market Paper
Title: Growth of Illicit Drug Use and its Effects on Murder Rates
ABSTRACT
After years of reductions in the rate of murder and violent crime in the United States, the national murder rate increased in both 2015 and 2016. The causes of this trend are generally unknown, though there is some evidence that it is related to narcotic drugs. Arrests related to heroin and cocaine had been stable between 2010 and 2014 before a sudden increase in 2015. Likewise, the number of murders related to narcotic drugs has increased since 2013, with a huge jump in 2015. Increased rates of these types of crime parallel recent dramatic growth in overdoses involving heroin and synthetic opioids, indicators of escalating illicit drug use. However, the causal relationship between the recent opioid crisis and the rise in murder rates is missing from the literature. This study aims at ascertaining the presence of a causal link.
I used the reformulation of OxyContin as an exogenous shock to illicit markets. OxyContin reformulation led some people who misused OxyContin to switch to illicit opioids, and previous work has shown that areas with higher rates of OxyContin misuse experienced faster growth in heroin and fentanyl overdoses post-reformulation. I tested whether this growth in illicit drug use caused an increase in crime.
After reformulation, I found that significantly greater increases in murder rates in states with high pre-reformulation rates of OxyContin misuse. This relationship is more obvious for white male homicide victim rates. The results suggest a causal link between the opioid epidemic and crime and show that the rise in murder rates was due to increased exposure of victims to hazardous environments, such as access to illicit drug markets.
Peer-reviewed
Park, Sujeong, and David Powell. “Is the Rise in Illicit Opioids Affecting Labor Supply and Disability Claiming Rates?” forthcoming at Journal of Health Economics
Derose, Kathryn P., Bing Han, Sujeong Park, Stephanie Williamson, and Deborah A. Cohen. “The mediating role of perceived crime in gender and built environment associations with park use and park-based physical activity among park users in high poverty neighborhoods.” Preventive medicine 129 (2019): 105846.
Park, Sujeong, Bing Han, Deborah A. Cohen, and Kathryn P. Derose. “Contributions of Neighborhood Parks to Physical Activity in High-Poverty Urban Neighborhoods.” Journal of Urban Health (2018): 1-7.
Cohen, Deborah A., Bing Han, Sujeong Park, Stephanie Williamson, and Kathryn P. Derose. “Differences in Park Use and Park-Based Physical Activity Among Residents of Low-Income Neighborhoods by Age Group and Gender.” Journal of Aging and Physical Activity, (2018): 1-28.
Park, Sujeong, and Brian H S Kim. “Relationship Between Social Support Factors and Major Crimes in Korean Capital Area.” Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association, 31.4 (2015): 3-24.
Park, Sujeong, Soyoon Kim, and Hong Sok Kim. " Impact of changing the Official Development Aid on the economy of the donor country: focusing on the infrastructure sector." International Area Studies Review 19.2 (2015): 1-18.
Park, Sujeong, Sun Hyung Min, Jeongbin Im, and Hong Sok Kim. "Estimating the Consumer's Value of Creating Shared Value Strategy of Company Considering Biodiversity." Environmental and Resource Economics Review 24.2 (2015): 283-309.
Monographs and technical reports
Hepner, Kimberly A., Carol P. Roth, Eric R. Pedersen, Sujeong Park, and Claude Messan Setodji. “Improving Behavioral Health Care for US Army Personnel: Identifying Predictors of Treatment Outcomes.” RAND Santa Monica United States, (2020). https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2829.html. Also available in print form.
Angrisani, Marco, Sujeong Park, Peifeng Hu, Jinkook Lee, “Harmonization of Cross-National Studies of Aging to the Health and Retirement Study – User Guide: Health Care Utilization and Expenditure.” Center for Economic and Social Research USC (2017) https://cesr.usc.edu/documents/Report_2017_001.pdf Report No. 2017-001.