Policy Advice & Knowledge Transfer
Evidence-based analysis on insolvencies, labor market adjustment, wage setting, structural change, and energy-related economic shocks.
Evidence-based analysis on insolvencies, labor market adjustment, wage setting, structural change, and energy-related economic shocks.
My policy-related work builds on applied empirical research and real-time economic monitoring. It focuses on how firms, workers, and regions adjust to structural change, corporate insolvencies, wage-setting institutions, and large external shocks. A key objective is to provide timely, data-driven input for public debate and economic policymaking at the national and international level.
My research is regularly covered by leading television, print, and online media outlets. I developed the IWH Bankruptcy Trend, which has become a prominent real-time indicator in public economic debate.
As head of the Bankruptcy Research Unit at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), I oversee the production of the IWH Bankruptcy Trend, a monthly real-time indicator based on insolvency announcements from German courts. The indicator provides early signals of economic stress across sectors and regions—well before official statistics become available.
This monitoring infrastructure is widely used in policy analysis and public debate to assess:
-- developments in corporate insolvencies,
-- regional and sectoral vulnerabilities, and
-- risks to employment and wages.
My policy work on insolvencies is closely connected to academic research on job displacement, wage losses, and lost firm rents after firm exits. This evidence informs discussions on labor market adjustment, insolvency law, and the design of support mechanisms during periods of structural change.
I serve as a scientific advisor to the Skilled Labour Monitoring (Fachkräftemonitoring) of the German Federal Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs. My work in skilled labour monitoring is closely linked to research on structural change in labor markets. Firm exits, restructuring, and technological change alter labor demand and increase the need for worker mobility and skill reallocation.
By combining monitoring tools with empirical research on displacement costs and sectoral mobility, this work contributes to evidence-based labor market and regional policy, particularly in the context of:
-- demographic change
-- sectoral reallocation, and
-- persistent regional disparities.
This dimension is especially relevant for understanding long-run adjustment processes in regions affected by structural transformation, including East Germany.
My policy advice also draws on research on rent sharing, collective bargaining, and employer wage premia. This work provides a framework for understanding how wages respond to firm performance, labor market imperfections, and structural pressures.
The evidence is relevant for policy debates on:
-- minimum wages,
-- collective bargaining coverage, and
-- the distributional consequences of economic change.
Rather than offering normative recommendations, this work contributes empirical insights into how institutional wage-setting mechanisms shape labor market outcomes.
The energy crisis of 2021–2023 highlighted the vulnerability of industrial economies to geopolitical shocks and sharp increases in input prices. My policy work in this area provides data-driven evidence on industrial exposure to gas price shocks and their economic consequences.
Expert Report for the German Council of Economic Experts
Economic Effects of Rising Gas Prices on German Industry
Short expert report for the German Council of Economic Experts (Sachverständigenrat), 2022
(co-authored with Matthias Mertens)
The report uses product-level data to assess gas intensity across industries and the potential output effects of rising gas prices. It informed policy discussions on industrial vulnerability, energy security, and mitigation strategies during the acute phase of the crisis.
I have prepared and contributed to several policy-oriented reports and analytical briefings for federal ministries and government agencies on various topics. Contributions concerning the 2022 gas and energy crisis included expertises on:
-- gas dependence and energy intensity at the product and sector level,
-- competitiveness and distributional effects of energy price shocks, and
-- implications for industrial policy and structural resilience.
The work combines microdata analysis with policy-oriented interpretation to support decision-making under conditions of high uncertainty.
My expertise on energy price shocks, industrial vulnerability, and economic security has also informed international policy discussions. In December 2025, I advised the Japanese government in the context of the high-level Tokyo Economic Security Forum on the economic consequences of energy supply disruptions and price volatility for advanced industrial economies.