Working Papers

The Demographic and Economic Effects of the Cambodian Genocide

 Abstract: This paper studies the long-term demographic and economic consequences of the Cambodian genocide by constructing a counterfactual demographic scenario that removes the effects of mass killings. Using age-specific fertility, and survival rates from 1950 to 2015, I simulate population and age structures in the absence of the genocide. These demographic scenarios are embedded in a production function with capital, land, and skill-heterogeneous labor inputs. The model also incorporates intergenerational skill formation through estimated age-earning profiles to capture human capital dynamics. The results show that although actual GDP per capita temporarily exceeded the counterfactual due to a higher ratio of working-age-to-non-working age and increased capital and land per worker, this advantage is reversed over time. Persistent losses in human capital and slower recovery in skill composition lead to lower productivity growth and a reduced level of economic development. The skill composition effect, driven by the loss of educated individuals and delayed transmission of human capital, explains much of the long term economic divergence. These findings suggest that mass violence can distort demographic transitions and contribute to slower economic growth.


 Abstract: This paper uses a generalized Difference-in-Differences approach to exploit the sudden and nation-wide shock, the Pol Pot regime (1975-1979), as a natural experiment to examine its long-term effects on education and wealth. To measure the specific impact on individuals born in urban districts during those years, I use the relative birth size in each district as a continuous proxy for pre-genocide urbanization, alongside other indicators of urban status. My analysis examines whether cohorts born in urban districts during the genocide exhibit a reduction in educational attainment and wealth today compared to those born in rural districts and during other periods. Empirical findings indicate that cohorts born in urban districts during the Pol Pot years, particularly those born in 1977, experienced significantly lower educational attainment and wealth today. This disparity is particularly pronounced for the cohort born in the capital city. Consequently, the legacies of the Pol Pot urban depopulation policy include long-term effects on educational attainment and wealth among cohorts born in urban districts during that period, in addition to the 1-3 million population.


Abstract: The paper examines the impact of rice cultivation on the gender composition of Cambodia’s agricultural labor force. Farm-level and district-level analyses reveal the persistent influence of the historical gender roles in agriculture, particularly in relation to plow-based farming, on today’s labor composition. The findings indicate a negative relationship between rice cultivation and female agricultural employment as farms that allocate more land to rice tend to hire fewer women. A two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression, using elevation as an instrumental variable, confirms that female agricultural labor drops when rice productivity increases. Although agriculture has moved away from the use of draft animals and plows, male labor continues to be used more intensively in traditional plow-based agriculture compared to other crops. The persistence of historical labor structures suggests that modernization alone does not necessarily lead to greater female participation in rice cultivation.


Undergraduate Paper