Bus Rapid Transit

BRT Passenger Capacity Far Exceeds Light Rail

Swift BRT "Lite" 13 Times Cheaper per Ride (94 Times Cheaper per mile) than Central Link Light Rail

The Birth of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)

Out of control heavy rail construction costs lead to the birth of lower cost (and lower capacity) Light Rail Transit (LRT). The explosion of light rail construction costs, which Sound Transit epitomizes, has led to a similar growth in Bus Rapid Transit. (BRT)

References & Calculations

a. SAN DIEGO GETS AN OLD-STYLE TROLLEY, The New York Times, July 26, 1981

b. $86 million(1981$) /13.5 miles = $6.4 million(1981$)/mile

c. $6.4 million(1981$)/mile * (2.6 2014$)/(1981$) = $16.6 million(2014$)/mile

d. Sound Transit Light Rail Extreme Costs chart, Sound Transit Central Link Sets Record for Most Expensive US Starter Light Rail System, ref. p) Seattle Central Link Light Rail cost $188 million(2014$) /mile

e. Sound Transit, Progress Report Link Light Rail, March 2015, 3.15 miles, $1.948 billion

f. $1.948 billion / 3.15 miles = $618million/mile.

g. Wikipedia,, Bus Rapid Transit“

k. Bus Rapid Transit Nearly Quadruples Over Ten Years,” Institute for Transportation & Development Policy, November 17, 2014.

BRT Passenger Capacity Far Exceeds Light Rail

While a multi car light rail train can carry more passengers per driver a dedicated bus lane can carry far more passengers because a bus stopping at a station to unload and load passengers does not stop the flow of buses passing that station. (assuming passing lanes at the stations)

There are no passing lanes for metro rail systems, although a handful of larger heavy rail systems have dual tracks on certain sections, such as Chicago and New York. Rail systems rarely run trains more frequently than every 2 minutes while Sound Transit is hoping to eventually reach a minimum headway of 3 mins for some corridors. This compares to a proven 10 second headway for full BRT systems such as the single lane Guangzhou, China system. Brisbane, Australia runs more than 300 buses per hour through a single bus lane, validating a 12 second spacing for a system in a developed country.

References & Calculations

a. Wikipedia, "Bus rapid transit"

b. Samuel, Peter, “Busway vs. Rail Capacity: Separating Myth from Fact,” February 8, 2002, p. 4

c. Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual 2nd Edition, "Part 5 Rail Transit Capacity," p 5-51.

d. Wikipedia, “Link Light Rail” 200 passenger car capacity with 74 seats support 4-car trains, 4*74 = 296 seated passengers per train

e. Sound Transit, "DRAFT 2016 Service Implementation Plan," October 12th 2015,

p 117, Table 17 - Standing Time Corrective Action Priority for Rail Modes

Link load factor for over 30 minutes is 2.0 Which equals to a standee capacity of 296 passengers per train.

f. ibid, p 116,

Table 14. Load Factor Standards by Bus Type;

Bus type / Number of Seats / Max. Passenger Load / Load Factor

40' High Floor / 42 / 63 / 1.5

40' Low Floor / 37 / 55 / 1.5

45' High Floor / 57 / 70 / 1.23

60' Low Floor / 56 / 81 / 1.45

42' Double Decker / 77 / 95 / 1.23

(latest double decker buses have 81 seats)

g. ibid, p 117, Table 17 - Standing Time Corrective Action Priority for Rail Modes

Link 2.0 load factor for over 30 minutes

h. 1-way capacity equals number of sitting and standing riders times 30 trains/hr or 360 uses per hour

Bus type / Number of Seats / Max. Passenger Load / standees / seated x360 / standee

x360 / Load Factor

40' High Floor / 42 / 63 / 21 / 15,120 / 7,560 / 1.5

40' Low Floor / 37 / 55 / 18 / 13,320 / 6,480 1.5

45' High Floor / 57 / 70 / 13 / 20,520 / 4,680 / 1.23

60' Low Floor / 56 / 81 / 25 / 20,160 / 9,000 / 1.45

42' Double Decker / 77 / 95 / 18 / 27,720 / 6,480 / 1.23

i. Light rail capacity = 296 seated/train * 20 trains/hr = 5,920 seated per hour = 6,000 standees/hour

j. (light rail seated)/(bus seated capacity) = 6,000/27,720 double decker = 0.32. 1-0.32=68% less seated capacity

k. (light rail total)/(bus total capacity) = (8,880+8,880) /(27,720+6,4380) double decker = 0.52, . 1-0.52=48% less total capacity

Snohomish County BRT "Lite"

While Sound Transit was was spending $188 million(2014$) /mile on their Light Rail system, Community Transit was dramatically improving the rider experience down State Route 99 (Aurora Avenue) in Snohomish County. Community Transit provides local and express bus service to Seattle, ins Snohomish County.

For $2 million(2014$)/mile the Swift BRT "lite" reduced run times 20%, and increased frequency to the levels of Seattle making public transit a viable option for car owners. I use the term, "lite," since this is not a true BRT system, although it skillfully implements the most cost effective aspects of BRT to improve passenger service.

A second Swift II providing frequent and much faster service to another highly congested travel corridor ending at the Everett Boeing Plant. Sound Transit's proposal to bring light rail past the plant and on to downtown Everett, will cost 100 times as much.

References & Calculations

a. Wikipedia, Swift Bus Rapid Transit, Cost $29 million (2009$), 1,557,404 (2014) boardings, 16.7 miles

b. 29 million (2009$) * 1.10 (2014$)/ (2009$) = 31.9 million (2014$) 31.9 millions (2014$) / 1,557,404 (2014) boardings * 365 days / year = $7,476 (2014$) per daily boarding

c. Route 101 Aurora Village to Mariner Park & Ride Weekday Schedule, Community Transit

Hwy 99 & Airport Rd to Aurora Village: lv 5:24 ar 5:49 travel time = 25 mins (min time)

Hwy 99 & Airport Rd to Aurora Village: lv 8:20 ar 8:55 travel time = 35 mins (max time)

d. Swift Southbound to Aurora Village Weekday Schedule, Community Transit

Hwy 99 & Airport Rd to Aurora Village: lv 5:21 ar 5:41 travel time = 20 mins (min time)

Schedule does not list busiest hours.

20 mins/25 mins = 0.8 = 20% less time

e. Swift By The Numbers, Thursday, December 2, 2010, Community Transit Blog claims 20% faster

f. Parsons Brinckerhoff (August 2014). "Executive Summary". Community Transit BRT Corridor Planning and Route Definition Study: Boeing to Canyon Park (Report). Community Transit.”

g. Sound Transit, ST3 CANDIDATE PROJECT: LYNNWOOD TO EVERETT LIGHT RAIL, 12/04/2015, shows Option 1 which pass the Everett Boeing plant for $4,460 to $4,969 billion

Swift BRT "Lite" 13 Times Cheaper per Ride (94 Times Cheaper per mile) than Central Link Light Rail

References & Calculations

h. Sound Transit Light Rail Obscene Costs chart, Sound Transit Central Link Sets Record for Most Expensive US Starter Light Rail System, ref. p) Seattle Central Link Light Rail cost $188 million(2014$) /mile

i. Community Transit, Swift Southbound to Aurora Village Weekday ScheduleEverett to Aurora Village lv 5:00 ar 5:41 travel time = 41 mins (min time)

Everett to Aurora Village lv 8:00 ar 8:51 travel time = 51 mins (max time)

Swift speed = 16.7 miles / (41 mins/(60 mins/hr))= 24.4 mph

Swift speed = 16.7 miles / (51 mins/(60 mins/hr))= 19.65 mph

j. Sound Transit, Central Link Weekday Schedule, 38 mins Downtown to SeaTac Airport

Central Link Speed 15.7 miles/(38 mins/(60 mins/hr))=24.78 mph

k. Sound Transit Light Rail Obscene Costs chart, Sound Transit Seattle Light Rail Key Facts & Data, ref h) Seattle Central Link: $97,714 (2014$)/daily ride 2014

l. Sound Transit Light Rail Obscene Costs chart, Sound Transit Light Rail Funding versus NW Peer Cities, ref c) Seattle Central Link: 30,001 rides/day (2014)

m. $1 million / ($97,714 / daily ride) = 10.23 daily rides/$1 million (Central Link)

n. $1 million / ($7,476 / daily ride) = 135.1 daily rides/$1 million (Swift BRT)

o. Swift 13 times cheaper per rider: 135.1 daily rides / 10.23 daily rides = 12x cheaper per daily

p. Swift 90 times cheaper per mile: 188 million/ 2 million = 94x cheaper per mile

q. “Lynnwood to Everett High Capacity Transit Corridor Study, Final Report, July 2014,” Sound Transit, ST3 Option E calculations

Ave Speed: 13.6 miles/ (50 mins/ (60 mins/hr)) = 16.3 mph

Cost/daily ride: $540 million/18,000 daily riders = $30,000 to

$740 million/15,000 daily riders = $49,333 / daily ride

Cost/mile $540 million/13.6 miles = $39.70 million to

$740 million/13.6 miles = $54.41 million / mile

r. Cost difference between ST3 HCT and Swift ($/mile)

$39.7 million / $2 million = 20 times or $54.41 million / $2 million = 27 times

s. Cost difference between ST3 HCT and Swift ($/weekday rider)

($30,000 / daily rider )/ ($7,470 / daily rider) = 4 times

($49,333 / daily rider )/ ($7,470 / daily rider) = 6.7 times

t. Swift Bus Rapid Transit Turns 6, Saturday, November 28, 2015, Community Transit Blog, 5500 daily riders

u. 5,500 existing riders handle by 15 buses. 3 x 5,500 = 16,500 riders