Working Papers

Perfect Recession Predictors with Anthony M. Diercks and Jing Cynthia Wu

Impulse Response Functions for Self-Exciting Nonlinear Models with Neville Francis and Michael T. Owyang

The Swaps Strike Back: Evaluating Expectations of One-Year Inflation with Anthony M. Diercks, Colin Campbell, and Steve Sharpe

The Evolution of Regional Beveridge Curves with Michael T. Owyang and Hannah G. Shell

Deregulation, Tax Cuts, and Stock Returns After the 2016 and 2024 Elections with Anthony M. Diercks , Casey B. Mulligan, and William Waller

• NY Times: "In the Papers"

• Seeking Alpha: "How Might Biden’s Anticipated Tax Changes Affect The Market?"

• Econbrowser Blog Post: “How Might Biden’s Anticipated Tax Changes Affect The Market?”

• UNC TCJA Effects Tracker

Interregional Migration and Housing Vacancy: Theory and Empirics with Jeffrey P. Cohen, Cletus C. Coughlin, and Jonas Crews

Publications

House Price Growth Interdependencies and Comovement with Jeffrey P. Cohen and Cletus C. Coughlin, Journal of Real Estate Research, Forthcoming

Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements with Amy Y. Guisinger and Michael T. Owyang, Econometrics and Statistics, Vol. 29, 2024 (Working Paper Version)

Business Cycles across Space and Time with Neville Francis and Michael T. Owyang, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 54, Iss. 4, 2022. (Working Paper Version)

Contagious Switching with Michael T. Owyang and Jeremy Piger,  Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 37, Iss. 2, 2022. (Working Paper Version)

• • FRB St. Louis On the Economy Blog Post: "North American Connectedness After NAFTA"

Timing and Signals of Monetary Regime Switching, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 26, Iss. 4, 2022

So You Want To Go To Graduate School? Factors that Influence Admissions to Economics PhD Programs with Adam T. Jones, Peter Schuhmann, and Allison Witman, Journal of Economic Education, Vol. 51, Iss. 2, 2020.

Nonlinearities, Smoothing, and Countercyclical Monetary Policy with Laura Jackson Young and Michael T. Owyang, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 95, 2018. (Working Paper Version)

Bridging the Classroom Gap between Asset Pricing and Business Cycle Theory with Mike Aguilar, International Advances in Economic Research, Vol. 21, Iss. 4, 2015.

Fiscal Challenge: An Experiential Exercise in Policy Making with Mike Aguilar, Journal of Economic Education, Vol. 46, Iss. 3, 2015.

Does the U.S. Lead Foreign Business Cycles? with Neville Francis and Michael T. Owyang, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 97, Iss. 2, Second Quarter 2015.

MacroJournal: Turning Students Into Practitioners with Mike Aguilar, Journal of Economic Education, Vol. 44, Iss. 3, 2013.