"Does unconventional monetary and fiscal policy contribute to the COVID inflation surge?" with Yinxi Xie and Ji Zhang, 2024.

"A  Macroeconomic Model of Central Bank Digital Currency" with Pascal Paul and Mauricio Ulate, 2024.

“Perfect Recession Predictors” with Anthony M. Diercks and Daniel Soques, 2024.

"Unconventional Monetary Policy According to HANK" with Eric Sims and Ji Zhang, 2022. 

| Code |

25. "Unconventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy" with Yinxi Xie, Review of Economic Dynamics, 2025, 56, 101259.

| Code | ECB Conference video |

24. "The Role of International Financial Integration in Monetary Policy Transmission" with Yinxi Xie and Ji Zhang, IMF Economic Review, 2024.

| Code |

23. "Average Inflation Targeting: Time Inconsistency and Ambiguous Communication" with Chengcheng Jia, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2023, 138, 69-86.

| In the news | Online appendix |

22. "The Four Equation New Keynesian Model" with Eric Sims and Ji Zhang, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2023, 105(4), 931–947. 

| Code | Online appendix |

21. "Wall Street QE vs. Main Street Lending" with Dario Cardamone and Eric Sims, European Economic Review, 2023, 156, 104475. 

20. "Commentary: Monetary Policy in Times of Structural Reallocation" Proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposium, 2021, 53-65.

19. "Reconstructing the Yield Curve" with Yan Liu, Journal of Financial Economics, 2021, 142 (3), 1395-1425. 

| Yield data | Online appendix |

18. "Evaluating Central Banks' Tool Kit: Past, Present, and Future" with Eric Sims, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2021, 118, 135-160.

     | Fed Listens Conference video |  Code |  Online appendix | In the news | 

17. "Bond Risk Premia in Consumption-Based Models" with Drew D. Creal, Quantitative Economics, 2020, 11(4), 1461–1484.

    | Online appendix |

16. "Negative Interest Rate Policy and Yield Curve" with Fan Dora Xia, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2020, 35(6), 653-672 (lead article).

• Winner of The Richard Stone Prize in Applied Econometrics

     | Shadow rates |

15. "Are QE and Conventional Monetary Policy Substitutable?" with Eric Sims, International Journal of Central Banking, 2020, 16 (1), 195-230.

14. "A Shadow Rate New Keynesian Model" with Ji Zhang, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2019, 107, 103728.

     | Shadow rates |

13. "Global Effective Lower Bound and Unconventional Monetary Policy" with Ji Zhang, Journal of International Economics, 2019, 118, 200–216.

12. Comment on "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest" Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, Spring 2017, 303-310.

11. "Inflation Announcements and Social Dynamics" with Kinda Hachem, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2017, 49 (8), 1673-1713 (lead article).

     | In the news |

10. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations" with Drew D. Creal, International Economic Review, 2017, 58 (4), 1317-1354. 

     | Video | In the news |

9. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound" with Fan Dora Xia, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2016, 48 (2-3), 253-291 (lead article).

     | Shadow rates | Code | Online appendix | Color figures | In the news |

8. "Estimation of Affine Term Structure Models with Spanned or Unspanned Stochastic Volatility" with Drew D. Creal, Journal of Econometrics, 2015, 185 (1), 60-81.

     | Code | Online appendix | In the news |

7. "Effects of Index-Fund Investing on Commodity Futures Prices" with James D. Hamilton, International Economic Review, 2015, 56 (1), 187-205.

     | In the news |

6. "Risk Premia in Crude Oil Futures Prices" with James D. Hamilton, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014, 42, 9-37.

     | Code | In the news |

5. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment" with Michael D. Bauer and Glenn D. Rudebusch, American Economic Review, 2014, 104 (1), 323-337.

     | Code | In the news |

4. "Testable Implications of Affine Term Structure Models" with James D. Hamilton, Journal of Econometrics, 2014, 178, 231-242.

3. "Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models" with Michael D. Bauer and Glenn D. Rudebusch, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2012, 30 (3), 454-467.

     | Code | Online appendix | In the news |

2. "Identification and Estimation of Gaussian Affine Term Structure Models" with James D. Hamilton, Journal of Econometrics, 2012, 168 (2), 315-331.

     | Code | In the news |

1. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment" with James D. Hamilton, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2012, 44 (s1), 3-46 (lead article).

     | Data | In the news |