2025年4月24日(木) April 24, 2024 (Thu.) 17:20-18:50
報告者/Presenter: Jude Bayham (Colorado State University)
Title: Observing the unobservable: Connecting persistent emotional state to behavior in risky contexts
2025年4月24日(木) April 24, 2024 (Thu.) 17:20-18:50
報告者/Presenter: Jude Bayham (Colorado State University)
Title: Observing the unobservable: Connecting persistent emotional state to behavior in risky contexts
場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)
Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)
幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe
言語/Language：英語/English
要旨/Abstract: Economists rely on experiments and surveys to measure typically unobserved subjective attributes, e.g., preference, belief, and emotion, that are important for understanding human behaviors. Dependence on these data collection modes limits the ability to connect subjective traits with behavior in a large-scale natural setting. Here, we use posts on social media platforms and natural language processing to infer individuals' persistent emotional state, and link this attribute to the behavior of 500,000 individuals during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that fearfulness is a persistent trait associated with specific individuals over time rather than associated solely with a single experience and that these high-fear individuals reduce out-of-home activities 4.2-6.9 percent more than low-fear individuals. The ability to observe subjective attributes at scale can enable better-identified economic measures and better-targeted economic policy.
2025年5月22日(木) May 22, 2024 (Thu.) 17:20-18:50
報告者/Presenter: Yingqian Tang (Waseda University)
Title: Does Hospital Bed Capacity Affect Physicians' Treatment Patterns and Care Quality?
場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)
Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)
幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe
言語/Language：英語/English
要旨/Abstract: How does hospital bed capacity influence physicians' treatment pattern and quality of care? We address this question by examining the impact of empty beds on healthcare delivery for the oldest-old population in Japan. Using universal administrative medical claims data from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, we exploit a unique natural experiment arising from COVID-19 patients across secondary medical service area (SMAs). This policy provides exogenous variation in bed capacity, enabling us to implement an instrumental variable approach to identify the causal effects. We find that increased bed availability leads to a significant shift from outpatient to inpatient care, with larger inpatient care cost incurred. These effects are particularly pronounced in regions with higher medical resources availability. However, we did not find any change in mortality. Our findings reveal how healthcare infrastructure shapes treatment decisions and have significant policy implications for hospital resource allocation, particularly in aging societies with universal healthcare system.
2025年6月27日(金) June 27 (Fri.), 2025 17:20-18:50
報告者/Presenter: Elizaveta Kugaevskaia (Waseda University)
Title: Religious Persuasion and Electoral Backlash: Evidence from Church Expansion
場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)
Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)
幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe
言語/Language：英語/English
要旨/Abstract: This paper investigates how political messaging delivered through religious institutions influences voting behavior. I leverage the case of post-communist Russia, where a sharp increase in church construction followed the end of state-imposed religious restrictions. Using a newly assembled panel dataset of church locations and founding years dating back to the 11th century, I exploit spatial and temporal variation in exposure to churches within a difference-in-differences framework. The results show that an increase in the number of churches in a city reduces the vote share of the incumbent party aligned with the church by approximately six percentage points, with half of the shift favoring the communist party. Voter turnout remains stable, suggesting that former ruling party supporters may respond to its ties with the church by voting for the opposition.
2025年7月10日(木) July 10 (Thu.), 2025 5:20PM-6:50PM
報告者/Presenter: 小林流基 /Ryuki Kobayashi (慶応義塾大学/Keio University)
Title: Market Power, Efficiency, and Upstream Effects: Disentangling Multiple Merger Effects on Retail Gasoline Price
場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)
Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)
幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe
言語/Language：日本語/Japanese
要旨/Abstract: This study examines the market power and efficiency effects of a merger on retail prices in an industry characterized by vertical relationships. As a case study, we analyze the largescale merger between vertically integrated petroleum firms in Japan. Leveraging geographical variation across local markets, we employ a difference-in-differences approach. The results suggest that the market power effect increased retail gasoline prices, while the efficiency effect did not lead to a significant price reduction. Moreover, the market power effect was more pronounced in markets with independent retailers, where the merging firm had both the incentive and the ability to adopt a raising rivals’ costs strategy. These findings suggest that vertical industry structures can exacerbate anti-competitive effects in downstream markets.
2025年8月8日(金) August 8 (Fri.), 2025 2:30PM-4:00PM
報告者/Presenter: Yichen (Joshua) Shen (神奈川県立保健福祉大学/Kanagawa University of Human Services)
Title: Minimum Wages and Crime: Evidence from 2008's Reform in Japan
場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)
Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)
幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe
言語/Language：英語/English
要旨/Abstract: This study investigates the causal impact of 2008’s minimum wage reform in Japan on crime using a difference-in-difference approach. In contrast to the existing study that showed the minimum wage leads to crime, we showed that the reform does not affect violent crime in Japan, but it reduced the property crime following the reform. We also performed heterogeneity analyses and showed that it was driven by break-in and autotheft which is the most profitable crime, suggesting that income is an important factor in mediating the relationship. Our results implied to policymakers the potential unintended benefits of raising minimum wages in Japan.
2025年8月15日(金) August 15 (Fri.), 2025 5:00PM-6:30PM
報告者/Presenter: Dominik Robert Wehr (Stockholm School of Economics)
Title: Firm Pay Premia and On-The-Job Search: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data
場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)
Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)
幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe
言語/Language：英語/English
要旨/Abstract: This paper presents novel evidence on the incidence of on-the-job search across the firm distribution, using data from a nationally representative survey linked to Swedish matched employer-employee records. I estimate that a 10 percentage point increase in a firm's pay premium reduces the likelihood of on-the-job search by 0.68 percentage points - nearly 1.5 times the effect size observed when considering individual pay alone. Using survey information on job satisfaction and non-pecuniary job attributes, I demonstrate that firm-level pay differences partly reflect compensating differentials implying downward bias in the estimated elasticity of search with respect to wages. Self-reported reasons for job search reveal that most downward moves in the job ladder are voluntary, and driven by non-pecuniary, idiosyncratic motives, consistent with recent theories of labor mobility. These findings have important implications for the role of search frictions in labor market competition.
場所：6号館2階203教室
Venue: 2nd Floor, Bldg. No.6, Room 203
幹事/Organizer：釜賀浩平/Kohei Kamaga
言語/Language：日本語/Japanese
2025年10月23日(木) October 23 (Thu.), 2025 5:20PM-6:50PM
報告者/Presenter: 井上ちひろ/Chihiro Inoue (神戸大学/Kobe University)
Title: Girls Help Girls, but Boys Gain Little: Exploring the Mechanisms of Gender Peer Effects in Elementary Schools
場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)
Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)
幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe
言語/Language：日本語/Japanese
要旨/Abstract: I estimate the effect of peer gender composition on elementary school students’ test scores and examine the underlying mechanisms using data from Saitama Prefecture, Japan. Exploiting within-school and across-cohort variation in gender composition, I show that a higher female ratio increases girls’ test scores but does not affect boys’ test scores. I propose a decomposition method to mitigate spurious correlations and suggest that the null effect on boys’ test scores reflects two offsetting forces: a positive effect from an improved learning environment and a negative effect from reduced study engagement.
2025年11月4日(火) November 4 (Tue.), 2025 5:20PM-6:50PM
報告者/Presenter: 河原崎 耀/Hikaru Kawarazaki (UCL/IFS)
Title: A Rotten Apple: Peer Effects of Criminal Exposure in Schools
場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B
Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B
幹事/Organizer：髙橋雅生/Masaki Takahashi
言語/Language：英語/English
要旨/Abstract:
A child's peers is a vital determinant of their performance at school. While it has been well documented that being exposed to disruptive peers can have adverse effects on educational outcomes, little is known about the impact of being exposed to a peer with a criminal background. In this paper, leveraging a rich administrative dataset that links crime and education records for nearly the entire universe of school students in England, I study the extent to which criminality spreads within schools from juvenile criminal peers. Exploiting the plausibly random timing of school transfers of students with a criminal record, I find that exposure to a criminal peer increases the peer's probability of starting a criminal career by 6.4% within four months of transfer. Furthermore, exposure to a peer with an offense record has an adverse effect on educational attainment, with approximately one quarter of the observed decline attributable to direct exposure effects, and the remaining three quarters mediated through engaging in criminal behavior.
2025年11月14日(金) November 14 (Fri.), 2025 5:20PM-6:50PM
報告者/Presenter: 中田 里志/Satoshi Nakada (東京理科大学/Tokyo University of Science)
Title: The Coarse Nash Bargaining Solutions (joint with Kensei Nakamura)
場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B
Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B
幹事/Organizer：釜賀浩平/Kohei Kamaga
言語/Language：英語/English
要旨/Abstract:
This paper studies the axiomatic bargaining problem and proposes a new class of bargaining solutions, called coarse Nash solutions. These solutions assign to each problem a set of outcomes coarser than that chosen by the classical Nash solution (Nash,1950). Our main result shows that these solutions can be characterized by new rationality axioms for choice correspondences, which are modifications of Nash's independence of irrelevant alternatives (or more precisely, Arrow's (1959) choice axiom), when combined with standard axioms.
Co-hosted by Sophia Institute for Human Security and JSPS KAKENHI Grant No. 24H00143 "Institutional Design for Social Common Capitals."
2025年11月27日(木) November 27 (Thu.), 2025 5:20PM-6:50PM
報告者/Presenter: 大谷 克/Suguru Otani (東京大学/The University of Tokyo)
Title: How Fast, in What Ways, and in What Order Do Firms Adjust to Minimum Wage Hikes? High-Frequency Evidence from Spot Labor Markets
場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B
Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B
幹事/Organizer：髙橋雅生/Masaki Takahashi
言語/Language：英語/English
要旨/Abstract:
This paper examines which margins firms adjust after minimum-wage hikes, in what order, and how quickly. Using contract-level data from a large spot-work platform and a wage-bin difference-in-differences, we find a 2\% employment decline in affected bins. We uncover a new low-cost channel: firms post earlier and adjust job descriptions, widening candidate pools and signaling desired skills--consistent with targeting more productive workers. Costlier amenities adjust later and modestly: transportation reimbursement rises slightly after 1-2 months, plausibly to broaden geographic reach, while staff-meal provision is unchanged. The sequence indicates rapid compliance, limited benefit offsets, and short-run incidence borne largely by establishments.