場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：髙橋雅生/Masaki Takahashi      

言語/Language：英語/English 

要旨/Abstract:  

Foreign labor represents a growing fraction of risky occupations that appear to be close substitutes of industrial robots. I investigate how dependency on immigrants interacted with robot adoption shaped a workplace injury risk in high-hazard sectors. Associating a wave of unskilled immigrants and workplace injuries across U.S. industries during 1992-2019, I find that immigrant workers substantially replaced native fatalities by crowding out natives out of risky jobs. Associated with cross-industry investment of industrial robots, I also find that robot installation dramatically reduced injury risk, but the aggregate nationwide risk remains unabated from poor investments to riskier labor-intensive sectors (e.g. agriculture and construction). Then, I test a hypothesis that immigration inflow impeded the automation and preserved an injury risk for remaining laborers, including natives. Over-dependency on foreign labor may preserve the risky technology generating a social cost (e.g., disabilities; usage of opioids). 

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe

言語/Language：英語/English 

要旨/Abstract:  

While female CEOs are under-represented, the barriers they face in the business environment remain poorly understood. This study investigates the influence of gender bias in forming CEOs' business networks. Using transaction data of 1 million Japanese firms, we find that CEOs of the same gender significantly trade more than those of the opposite gender, mostly driven by small- and medium-sized firms in which CEOs presumably have a strong involvement in transactions. As most CEOs are male, such same-gender bias reduces the trading opportunities for females relative to male CEOs. Regarding mechanisms, our survey reveals both the existence of barriers that impede male CEOs from becoming acquainted with female CEOs and the tendency for male CEOs to prefer interacting with male CEOs over female CEOs. 

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe

言語/Language：英語/English 

要旨/Abstract:  

This study used instrumental variable causal forests to explore the heterogeneous treatment effect of retirement on cognitive function using data from 19 countries. We found that, on average, retirees have better cognitive function than workers and that the conditional average treatment effects vary depending on individuals’ characteristics. Policymakers should provide early retirement options in the pension system to allow individuals to decide when to retire. The balance between the social benefits of raising the state pension age and the individual costs of increasing the risk of dementia by delaying retirement should be considered. 

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe

言語/Language：英語/English 

要旨/Abstract:  

Many governments and states subsidize investments in Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) to address concerns about insufficient Electric Vehicle (EV) charger infrastructure. Additionally, in several states in the US, public utility commissions have mandated electricity utilities to install utility-owned EVSEs. While this command-and-control policy can provide benefits such as reliable installation plans, it may also lead to crowding-out effects on private investments. This research aims to evaluate the impact of utilities' entries into the EVSE market on market outcomes. The study focuses on Maryland, where five electricity utilities were ordered to implement utility-owned EVSEs. Initial reduced-form analysis indicates that the provision of utility-owned EVSEs decreases the number of third-party EVSE entries. I plan further analysis including additional reduced-form analyses under various market definitions and a structural analysis. 

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe

言語/Language：英語/English 

要旨/Abstract:  

Childhood shocks have long-term implications for future outcomes by disrupting human capital. This study examines how the timing of shocks during childhood affects human capital in the context where children face tradeoffs between schooling and productive work for production. Using data from pastoralists in rural Kenya and Ethiopia, we leverage quasi-random spatial and temporal variations of rangeland health conditions, to estimate the impact of early-life productivity shocks on the educational attainment. The results show that a one-standard-deviation increase in droughts from normal years at age 13—the final year of primary school—significantly increases the educational attainment gap by 1.37 years. This seems to be driven by the rational expectation of not going to secondary school and/or an increase in the marginal product of labor for herding. Furthermore, we examine the role of insurance in mitigating these effects. insurance results will come here. The results reveal the role of non-separable household decisions regarding child time use and agricultural production in low-income settings which could lead to a long-term implications.  

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：Yuki Higuchi & Matthias Schlegl

言語/Language：英語/English

要旨/Abstract: Intergenerational transfers take place mainly in the form of bequests, inter-vivo transfers and through trust-funds. Taxation of these transfers usually involves tax allowances. We study optimal transfers from a parent to a child given a warm-glow motive. We find that optimal transfers are characterized by a mix of boundary and interior solutions depending on overall wealth of the parent. As a consequence, transfers are only weakly monotonic in wealth of the parent.

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe

言語/Language：日本語/Japanese

要旨/Abstract: Many countries - both developed and emerging - face the prospect of shrinking populations. This demographic trend has become an economic and social problem affecting economic growth and generational and regional inequality. However, since population declines proceed steadily, they are not a shock, and it is difficult to estimate their effects because they are endogenous to each context. I use a unique event - the publication of a list of Japanese municipalities at risk of extinction by 2040 - to estimate the impacts of declining populations on municipalities and housing markets using difference-indifferences models. Because this information shock conveys the significance of shrinking populations in certain areas, I can identify the causal effects of population decline. The results show that the designation of future "extinction" has the following effects: increases of 23.5% in regional revitalization and 11.5% in child-oriented spending and a decrease of 3.67 % in housing sales prices. The study's insights provide new evidence of the impact of population decline on local governments and housing markets. 

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B 

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B

幹事/Organizer：釜賀浩平/Kohei Kamaga

言語/Language：日本語/Japanese

要旨/Abstract: We consider the problem of aggregating individuals’ real-valued assessments into an ordering through a social evaluation functional (SEFL). We newly study an informational assumption in which assessments are partitioned into grades and interpersonal level comparisons through grades are partially possible. Since it is already shown that strong Pareto efficiency, anonymity, and binary independence are incompatible with this informational assumption (Yamamura, 2016), we investigate and then characterize, as the second-best approach, the class of SEFLs satisfying “weak Pareto efficiency,” anonymity and binary independence.

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B 

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B

幹事/Organizer：Yuki Higuchi and Matthias Schlegl

言語/Language：英語/English

要旨/Abstract: There are two key challenges to a decoupling of economic growth from energy demand: long-term decelerating energy savings in technical progress and a significant economy-wide rebound effect. The latter comprises a feedback mechanism of energy into the economic system (substitution- and output effects) triggered by energy-augmenting technical progress and relative price changes of energy. We investigate both phenomena by identifying the unobservable long-term supply side characteristics in the U.S. and Japan’s aggregate economy between 1978 and 2019. We estimate a normalized and energy-extended gross output production function of CES type that incorporates capital and labor as a composite input of primary factors and final energy as an intermediate factor of gross output production. Making use of the Klump et al. (2007a) normalized “supply-side-system approach” we simultaneously identify the energy substitution elasticity and time-varying (Box-Cox-transformed) factor augmenting technical progress.

Our baseline results indicate that a CES-in-CES structure is a statistically preferred form of the production function. Energy and primary factors inputs are strong complements for both countries and the technology is generally biased towards energy savings but indeed with a decelerating long-term trend. The empirical economy-wide rebound effect is driven by the energy substitutability and has a similar magnitude in both advanced countries of 36.0% in the U.S. and 40.1% in Japan. That means, over one-third of energy savings from technological advancements are offset by this rebound. We modify our baseline model unravel more information on the production conditions of the long term: incorporating breaks for the medium-term transitions in technological progress function enhances the model fit. Our model accurately predicts both country’s energy cost share dynamics in three phases:  (1) from 1978 to 1990, energy-biased technical progress shows slight acceleration; (2) from 1991 to 2002, the energy bias decelerates significantly, especially in Japan; and (3) from 2003 to 2019, the energy bias accelerates again but with Japan’s progress rate lagging behind. We observe a larger energy substitution elasticity in Japan now, potentially explaining the country’s relatively stable economic growth shortly after the 1970s oil crisis. A sharp deceleration of Japan’s energy-augmenting technical progress during the 1990s provides an explanation in our model for the country’s “lost-decade”. While our model now predicts a declining energy share in the U.S. during the last decade of our sample period, which may raise the expectations of energy decoupling in the near future, our model predicts a rather constant energy share in Japan. The higher energy substitutability that elevates Japan’s rebound effect to almost 50% serves as one explanation for this finding.

We are concerned about inaccurate long-term parameter estimates due to short-term cyclical fluctuations in the data. Applying low-pass filteres and running the baseline model over the long-term trend in the data, increases the energy-substitutability of the U.S. Counterintuitively, the parameter remains unchanged or even declines with higher smoothing operators for the Japanese data. The energy-dependence of Japan appears to be high, even in the long-term trend. Finally, we disaggregate final energy consumption in electrical and non-electrical (fossil fuel) energy carriers and incorporate the two energy types as a second CES composite input in our model. Electricity and fossil fuels are complements in the long-term (with an interfuel elasticity of 0.88 in the US and 0.63 in Japan). We show that fossil fuels are not easily replaced by clean substitutes (confirming the so-called “displacement paradox”) and their technical improvements are actually the main driver of overall energy-augmentation and the rebound effect.

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B 

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B

幹事/Organizer：Gabriel Fuentes-Cordoba 

言語/Language：英語/English

要旨/Abstract: We estimate the impact of legal adult prostitution on child sex trafficking. Using a nationwide survey of child sex workers and plausibly exogenous variations in the location of legal brothels, we show that legalization increases demand for and supply of trafficked children and children who voluntarily engage in prostitution. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that closing brothels reduces them by 13.5% and 2.7%, respectively, but it deprives legal adult sex workers of their job opportunities. Alternatively, strict screening of trafficking victims in the brothels alone reduces victims by 7.3% without evicting legal workers, but it increases voluntary child sex workers by 1.6%. 

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B 

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B

幹事/Organizer: 蓬田 守弘/Morihiro Yomogida  

言語/Language: 英語/English 

要旨/Abstract:   We examine the multifaceted impact of uncertainty on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows across diverse sectors—including manufacturing, services, technology, and others— drawing upon evidence from a broad spectrum of advanced, emerging, and developing countries over a 15-year sample covering the pre-COVID period. Controlling for both global and local factors, we find significant heterogeneity in sectoral resilience and sensitivity to uncertainty. Specifically, sectors such as Energy, Healthcare, Technology, and Transport are significantly deterred by global uncertainty, reflecting their reliance on international trade networks and global supply chains. In contrast, the IT Services sector exhibits resilience—and even increased attraction—under uncertainty, likely due to its role in providing technological solutions that enhance adaptability during turbulent times. The Manufacturing and Consumer sectors demonstrate relative insensitivity to uncertainty, with FDI inflows less affected by both global and country-specific uncertainties. In summary, our study highlights the nuanced relationship between uncertainty and sector-specific FDI. Understanding these dynamics can enable policymakers to devise targeted interventions that promote stable and sustainable FDI inflows across diverse economies. 

場所：2号館414教室&415教室

Venue:  Room 414 & 415, Bldg.  

Program

Titles and Abstracts