場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：樋口裕城/Yuki Higuchi 

言語/Language：英語/English

要旨/Abstract:  

In this paper, we contribute to the literature on diversity and team performance by studying the American Offshore Whaling Industry during the period between 1807 and 1912. From colonial settlements into the twentieth century, whaling was an important industry in America, thanks to the process of industrialization and urbanization that raised the demand for oil used for lubrication and illumination and for baleen used in the production of various consumer products. Operations on the vessel required a significant amount of teamwork and cooperation by the crew, which consisted of a combination of high and low skill workers with well identified roles and ranks. In this context, we document the existence of a nonlinear effect of racial diversity on team productivity, where teams are represented by the crew operating onboard of whaling voyages. We do this by estimating the effect of racial diversity on the value of the output captured during the voyage as well as on productivity. The presence of these multiple sources of diversity allows us moreover to uncover the transmission channels responsible for the nonlinear shape of the estimated relationship.

The history of the American whaling industry offers an ideal setting to examine the impact of racial diversity on team productivity by providing appropriate data and unique advantages for identification. A significant benefit from focusing on this industry is the availability of extremely rich data on the crew and the production process of whaling voyages. Crews were multiracial and multiethnic, composed of individuals from various states, recent immigrants, and various other nationalities that joined on the whaling routes. Customs records include the crew lists and detailed data on each voyage, including crew characteristics, departure and arrival dates, vessel characteristics, and output. Our dataset includes about 4,400 voyages and 113,000 crewmembers.

To conduct our empirical analysis, we draw on a large number of data sources. Customs records include a visual description of each crew member (skin complexion, hair, and eye color) recorded for identification at customs, which can be used as proxy for race. We combined this information with data from the Seamen's Protection Certificate Database, the U.S. Federal Census schedules, and various sources on the names of native Americans employed in the whaling industry, to determine the race of each crew member. Based on this information, for each voyage we calculated the fractions of members in various racial categories to construct indices of fractionalization, which denotes the racial diversity of the crew, and estimate its effect on the total revenue and productivity.

In our empirical specification crew diversity affects productivity in a quadratic form. We exploit the richness of the data by including in the analysis various voyage characteristics and a number of fixed effects to address omitted factors. In particular, as the performance of the team depends on the way is managed, especially with regards on the implications of racial diversity, we include a fixed effect for the captain. In the whaling industry, the role of the captain and his ability in managing the crew and hunting whales was vital to the success of the voyage.

With this strategy we provide evidence for the existence of a U-shaped relationship between racial diversity and team productivity. We find that while an initial increase in diversity induces a sharp decline in the value of output, higher levels of racial heterogeneity yield substantial gains. Overall, our results indicate that racial diversity generates very modest economic costs. That is, the elasticity calculated at the median of the fractionalization index implies that a 10 percent rise in diversity decreases revenue by about 0.2 percent. These results are precisely estimated and robust across different specifications and robustness checks. Even though endogeneity concerns are minimal in the case of whaling crews, we cannot completely exclude the possibility of the racial composition of whaling crews being chosen in order to improve productivity. Because of this, we also address potential endogeneity issues arising from possible selection of the racial composition of the crew. To that end, we follow the literature  by instrumenting racial diversity with the pre-existing regional diversity at the home port measured with a time lag. The results of the 2SLS model confirm the robustness of our OLS findings. The 2SLS estimates show that the overall effect of diversity is null, if not slightly positive. Moreover, results show that at the two ends of the distribution diversity’s net effect on team productivity is lower for homogenous crews than for highly diverse ones, which indicates an overall positive advantage to greater diversity.

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：釜賀浩平/Kohei Kamaga  

言語/Language：英語/English

要旨/Abstract:  

This paper contributes an in-depth study of the short- and long-term effects of floods on the cognitive development of school-aged children. Specifically, we exploit individual-level microdata from a longitudinal study of childhood poverty in Vietnam. Our analyses indicate that floods immediately imposed negative impacts on children’s cognitive skills, but these impacts would be mitigated in the long run. Changes in child schooling, time allocation between school and work, and household food consumption (child nutrition) appear to be potential channels behind these impacts. Girls, older children, firstborn children, and children belonging to ethnic minorities are among the more vulnerable groups to the adverse effects of flooding. Our results suggest that policies that alleviate the credit constraints of households and focus on the above groups could mitigate natural disasters’ damage to human capital accumulation.  

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe 

言語/Language：英語/English

要旨/Abstract:  

Sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs), such as soda and coke, have been shown to increase the obesity rates across countries. Many countries have implemented policies in an attempt to curb the consumption of SSBs including sin tax and ban of sales near school. However, most policies have ignored the possibility of spillover effect of alcohol use on the consumption of SSBs. This study fills in the gap by examining the causal relationship between alcohol consumption and SSBs. To alleviate the endogenity issue, this study leverages the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) in Taiwan, 18, to investigate its effect on the uses of alcohol and sugar sweetened beverages. Using the 1993–1996 Nutrition and Health Survey in Taiwan and exact date of birth with a sharp regression discontinuity, I showed that MLDA increased the drinking for women but has no effect on men. At the same time, the MLDA decreased the consumption of SSBs, specifically soft drinks, for women in Taiwan. The result implied that alcohol and SSBs are substitutes, rather than complements. In other words, policies affecting alcohol use could have potential spillover substitution effect on the consumption of SSBs.  

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室A & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room A & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe 

言語/Language：英語/English

要旨/Abstract:  

This paper studies the role of influencers and how they shape the investment landscape on Reddit, shedding light on the mechanisms through which investment ideas are communicated and the impact they have on investor behaviour. Using over 45 million submissions and comments posted on Reddit’s r\wallstreetbets, a financial contents focused sub forum, we construct influence measures based on: (i) the crowd drawing power based on the number of follow-up comments the original post has attracted; (ii) the degree of agreement, i.e. the proportion of follow-up comments that share the same sentiment as the original post; and (iii) the sentiment, i.e. the submitter’s original view about the market. Leveraging on these novel influence measures, we investigate a number of big names on the financial social media platform and check how these individuals gain the status of influencer, and the tactics they used to strengthen their influence. Finally, we test for intensity bursts among stock trading volumes and the corresponding contagious social media trends on Reddit. By applying intensity burst statistics, we find very close relationships between financial social media and the stock market. We will demonstrate that these intensity bursts also spilled over to the individual stock volatility bursts and their intraday drift bursts.  

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室A & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room A & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：樋口裕城/Yuki Higuchi     

言語/Language：英語/English

要旨/Abstract:  

In 2012, the Philippines implemented the Mother Tongue-Based Multilingual Education (MTB-MLE) program countrywide. The program introduced 19 languages for teaching kindergarten and Grades 1 through 3, replacing the previous bilingual education system that used Filipino and English. The aim of MTB-MLE policy is to bring the language of instruction (LOI) closer to children's first language (L1). The policy assumes that a closer link between LOI and L1 would improve the students’ acquisition of foundational skills. We use a nationally representative household survey to evaluate the short-term impact of MTB-MLE on reading skills. Our double difference estimation strategy compares the reading skills of cohorts exposed to the program with the older cohorts, and between the residents living in provinces that switched from Filipino to one of the 19 languages. In a second specification, we directly use the reduction in the distance between LOI and L1 in the province as the treatment variable. We find that the policy reduced the distance between the LOI and L1 by 44%. However, we find no evidence that it affects reading skills. Estimation results from the second specification suggest a statistically significant and negative effect on reading skills among those who were fully exposed to the policy. We also find that, among those fully exposed, girls and those with less-educated parents experienced significant and negative impacts.  Our results are based on the initial years of MTB-MLE rollout, during which several implementation challenges emerged, or when adjustment costs were significant. Further investigation is necessary to determine the policy's impact in later years. 

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe

言語/Language：英語/English

要旨/Abstract:  

Despite a growing body of evidence underscoring the benefits of rural-urban migration, its impact on the accumulation of human capital remains relatively understudied. This paper builds upon the Roy model by integrating the concept of human capital investment for rural-urban migrants. Our model reveals that uncertainty surrounding an individual's capabilities or their suitability for formal urban jobs may deter migration, suggesting that information asymmetry could lead to suboptimal migration outcomes. Furthermore, our findings indicate that reducing both migration and human capital investment costs can stimulate migration levels, with the latter appearing to significantly enhance social welfare. Consistent descriptive patterns that reinforce these insights emerge when evaluating the impact of China's hukou policy.  

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe

言語/Language：英語/English

要旨/Abstracts:  

International Aid, Electrification and economic outcomes in African Countries

In the past two decades, notable strides have been made in enhancing electricity access in Africa. Nevertheless, there remains a dearth of empirical research investigating the impact of electrification on economic outcomes in the region. This study aims to fill this gap by providing fresh and causal empirical evidence on the relationship between electrification and labor participation in Sub-Saharan Africa, utilizing international aid projects as a prominent exogenous shock in the region. The current findings underscore that completed electrification projects yield a substantial increase in labor participation, amounting to 4% of the sample mean. Importantly, these benefits are primarily observed among individuals with higher initial capital such as those who are residing in urban areas and have better family backgrounds. These outcomes highlight the vital role of electrification aid in driving economic development while also emphasizing concerns regarding inequality in Africa.

Excess Capacity and Vent for Surplus: Evidence from China's overcapacity elimination policy 

Machinery utilization holds significant potential for facilitating the transition of low-income countries from agriculture to manufacturing, which has long been recognized as a cornerstone for job creation, poverty reduction, and rapid economic growth. How to achieve industrialization is also one of the pillars of Africa. This paper investigates the potential effects of importing machinery on the industrialization efforts and local progress of African nations. The analysis is divided into two sections. Firstly, it examines the impact of China's policy of eliminating domestic manufacturing machinery on the export of machinery to Africa. The findings indicate that cities implementing machinery elimination tasks export approximately 6% more machinery value to African countries. This suggests that China's industrial policy contributes to improving the availability and accessibility of industrial machinery in Africa. Secondly, the paper explores the potential advantages of imported machinery for recipient countries. The study demonstrates that machinery imports contribute to the growth of downstream sectors but have a limited effect on job creation. Using firm-level data from Ethiopia, the research confirms this pattern and reveals that machinery imports primarily benefit large firms and exporters without significant increases in employment. This paper offers valuable insights into the role of machinery imports in promoting industrialization and local development in Africa. 

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe

言語/Language：英語/English

要旨/Abstracts:  

The nuclear phase-out following the Fukushima Nuclear accident caused a countrywide electricity supply shock, necessitating the manufacturing plants to significantly reduce electricity usage. Utilizing heterogeneous exposure to the regional shortage, we find that these shortages significantly curtailed manufacturing plants’ inputs, and revenue within three years, accounting for 0.5-0.7% of GDP loss. Manufacturing plants substitute electricity with other energy sources and invest in capital that can enhance energy productivity, potentially alleviating the damages. We will extend our analysis by estimating the production function and quantifying the welfare implications of plant adjustments and various policy scenarios.

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe

言語/Language：英語/English

要旨/Abstract:  

By compiling the first comprehensive dataset covering the universes of judges, lawyers, law firms, litigants, and lawsuits in China from 2014 to 2022, we identify over 15,000 judges who left their positions and joined private law firms as lawyers, which accounts for 7.5% of all judges (2.6% of all lawyers) nationwide. We show that these revolving-door lawyers enjoy significant advantages in securing favorable court decisions for their clients. Specifically, all else being equal, criminal defendants represented by judge-turned lawyers on average receive 5% shorter imprisonment sentences and are 9% (15%) less likely to be sentenced to life imprisonment (death penalty). In commercial lawsuits, holding constant case features, litigants represented by revolving door lawyers on average have 10% higher win rates. Exploiting intra-lawyer variation in performances at home v.s. away courts, We show that the edge for revolving door lawyers comes from both “know who” and “know how.” We further document that, the revolving door lawyers, by joining larger law firms that serve richer/larger customers, create systematic inequalities in criminal and civil trials in China. 

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe

言語/Language：日本語/Japanese 

要旨/Abstract:  

This paper examines the degree of knowledge spillovers through collaborative research and development (R&D) networks between private firms, taking into account endogenous network formation. To accomplish this objective, we develop a multiple-stage game where firms choose their output levels, R&D investments, and the partner whom with they collaborate. For the estimation of the network formation game, we employ the simultaneous game under incomplete information where network structure is only partially observed. This structural method effectively deals with endogeneity and estimates unbiased spillover parameters. As a counterfactual experiment, we compare various R&D subsidy policies for their allocation efficiency.    

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe

言語/Language：日本語/Japanese 

要旨/Abstract:  

This study investigates the role of pharmacists in the patients' choices in generic pharmaceuticals. Literature shows patients prefer authorized generics (AG) on average due to their high perceived quality. We show that patient AG preferences are heterogeneous and depend on pharmacies, which shapes the for-profit pharmacist AG's dispensing choice as the comparative advantage. Our empirical results confirm that a significant variation exists in the comparative advantage, explaining pharmacists' AG dispensing behavior. We also find that patients' preference changes with the information pharmacists provide, which results in heterogeneous comparative advantage and AG dispensation. 

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe

言語/Language：英語/English

要旨/Abstract:  

This study investigates the effects of child marriage bans on first-born child mortality in developing countries. Our difference-in-differences strategy relies on two sources of variation: variation in the timing of the bans in each country and subnational regional differences in “treatment intensity,” which we define based on the prevalence of and average age among child marriages prior to the ban. Using a sample of over 200,000 women drawn from the Demographic and Health Surveys in 18 countries, we find that child marriage bans reduced infant, under-5 and any child mortality, with magnitudes of 13.2, 18.2 and 21.6 percent corresponding to a one standard deviation change in treatment intensity. We also find that the effects were heterogenous: low-income countries, less wealthy individuals, and boys benefited the most. Investigating the underlying mechanisms, we find that delays in age at first birth and at first sex, access to family planning information, improved antenatal care and better nutritional practices were all affected by the bans. Our findings imply that banning child marriage has positive health benefits for the next generation.

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：Yuki Higuchi   

言語/Language：英語/English

要旨/Abstract:  

 This paper examines how a politician's term length affects policy formation in state-building. We rely on a historical natural experiment in post-colonial India, where the term lengths for the first members of the upper house of parliament were randomly determined. Combining the natural language processing approach with the difference-in-differences strategy, we find that shorter-term politicians propose policies with a short-term focus. Their policy suggestions are primarily influenced by their own imminent elections. Conversely, those serving longer terms craft policies with a more extended temporal perspective, considering not only an electoral cycle but also a national budget cycle. Furthermore, short-term politicians predominantly address policies rooted in local concerns, whereas longer-term politicians engage more in deliberations of national interests.  

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe    

言語/Language：英語/English

要旨/Abstract:  

This paper empirically tests for the channel through which credit supply expansion affects housing prices, using a dataset of an unbalanced panel of 20 OECD countries that covers the period from 1980 to 2019. We use Jordà’s (2005) local projection method to estimate impulse response functions of housing prices to the credit shock. An exogeneous expansion of credit growth leads to the boom in housing price growth at short horizons and to the bust at longer horizons. This finding is established using Bartik-like instrument that is constructed by combining a country’s measure of banking deregulation and conditions of global credit growth. Our result for the boom followed by bust contradicts with the rational expectation models, suggesting that the credit was excessively supplied. The pattern of boom and bust is affected by several elements, such as the current account balance and the interval of credit growth. Our identified shock is the credit supply shock rather than the demand shock.   

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：釜賀浩平/Kohei Kamaga     

言語/Language：日本語/Japanese 

要旨/Abstract:  

Does communication technology advance such as online dating sites and social networking services, really make us happier? Rather, are they bringing us worse equilibrium, as a result, for us and our whole society than before? We present a non-stationary two-sided search market equilibrium model for analysing marital relationship formulation including cohabitation. Using the model, we quantify the effects of the communication technology changes on marital relationship choices. Furthermore, I compare the equilibrium matching patterns and the social welfare level derived from the search model and those derived from the frictionless matching model as a convergent limit of the search model.

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe      

言語/Language：日本語/Japanese 

要旨/Abstract:  

How do individuals perceive the trade-off between career and family formation, and through what mechanisms do they believe the trade-off occurs? To answer this question, we investigate how Japanese university students anticipate future earning, labour supply, marriage, and fertility under hypothetical scenarios that vary with regard to educational investment and the timing of marriage. We find that women perceive a more severe trade-off between educational investment and family formation, with a large part of them believing that women face greater family formation disadvantages through educational investment delaying the timing of marriage. 

Workshop HP