Abstract: Intergenerational concerns underlie various economic decisions. This paper provides a model of fairness considerations for other generations. We adapt a model of fairness preferences to include the relative weights on consumption utility of other generations. Then, using a randomized online survey experiment with 11,100 Japanese respondents born in the 1970s, we elicit their weights on the generations born 20 years before and after. The results of our analysis show that the respondents, on average, discount the income of the generation born in the 1990s with a factor of about 0.935; this is significantly less than 1, implying that the respondents tend to undervalue the next generation over their own in fairness considerations. In contrast, the discount factor for the generation born in the 1950s is 0.963 if their earnings are determined by luck but not significantly different from 1 if determined by individual productivity. These results indicate a pluralism and asymmetry of fairness preferences for other generations.

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg.No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：釜賀浩平/Kohei Kamaga

言語/Language：日本語/Japanese

Abstract: This paper reexamines Marshall's "mysteries of the trade." He highlighted the importance of knowledge spillovers and described it as "the mysteries of the trade are as it were in the air." But are they really in the air? If so, how large are they, and how can they be facilitated? To answer the questions, we estimate the causal impact of superstar inventor migrations to a city on the number of inventions in the same city. We develop a new identification strategy based on inventors' propensities to migrate from higher-tax places to lower-tax places. Using the predicted probabilities of top inventors between the U.S. commuting zones as shares, we perform a Bartik-style (or shift-share-style) instrument variable estimation. The analysis reveals that in the United States, from 1977 to 2009, a superstar inventor who moved to a commuting zone increased the patent productivity of the local inventors by about 3-5 percent. 

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg.No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe 

言語/Language：日本語/Japanese

Abstract: 日本は高齢化率が世界的に見て最も高い国であり、全世帯に占める高齢世帯（世帯主年齢が65歳以上）の割合は2015年の36%（1,918万世帯）から2040年には44.2%（2,242万世帯）まで増加することが予想されている。こうした高齢世帯の増加は、エネルギー消費、特に電力需要の増加要因となることが指摘されている。実際、家計調査のデータからも、世帯構成人員の影響を排除した一人当たり電力消費量は、世帯主の年齢が増えるほど増加していく傾向があることが分かる。よって、今後の家庭部門における省エネ政策を考える際には、こうした高齢世帯に対する対策を実施していくことが重要となってくる。以上のことから、本研究では、報告者がプレテストとして2021年に実施した高齢世帯（世帯主年齢が65～75歳までの一般世帯）に対するアンケート調査から得たデータを用いて、高齢世帯におけるエネルギー消費の実態と省エネ取組みを促す上で非価格要因の有効性について検証結果を報告する。

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg.No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：堀江哲也/Tetsuya Horie 

言語/Language：日本語/Japanese

Abstract: Over the past few decades, the international community has taken a number of policy measures to deal with cross-border tax evasion such as the hiding of assets in tax havens. One of these measures is the establishment of a global and multilateral network to automatically exchange information on non-resident financial assets, known as the Common Reporting Standard (CRS), which has dramatically increased tax authorities’ data gathering power with regard to assets held abroad. Although several previous studies have found a significant decrease (at least in the short term) in non-resident foreign assets held in tax havens after the CRS commenced, the decrease in assets held in tax haven may not necessarily be the same for all source countries. That is, the impact on assets held by citizens in tax havens abroad is likely to differ depending on factors such as the efforts by tax authorities to combat the use of tax havens prior to the introduction of the CRS, the level of citizens’ tax compliances, etc. Against this background, using bilateral data on bank deposits for 943 country pairs, this study estimates the impact of the CRS on deposits of Japanese residents held in tax havens. The estimation results show that the CRS significantly reduced cross-border deposits in tax havens overall and that this reduction is significantly larger for Japanese residents than for residents of other countries.

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg.No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe

言語/Language：日本語/Japanese

Abstract: We quantify the impact of questions submitted by policymakers on the overtime work of Japanese government officials. We use mobile phone location data to measure the nighttime population in the government-office district at hourly frequency. Our measure is much less vulnerable to measurement errors than reported overtime working hours. Exploiting the institutional constraints, we estimate responses of the nighttime population to an exogenous increase in the number of questions submitted by using the method of local projection. We find that, on average, overtime work significantly increases and persists by midnight one week after the submission of the question. Based on our results, government officials, who are male in their 20s and female in their 40s, are the most heavily affected by the question. Furthermore, the effect on overtime work is estimated to be more pronounced when everything is paper- based, suggesting that improved efficiency using information technology can mitigate overtime work.

The full paper is available at

https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/assets/uploads/2022/03/E2125_version.pdf

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg.No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：ガブリエル　フエントス・コルドバ/Gabriel Fuentes Cordoba

言語/Language：英語/English

Abstract: We propose to use the classical Borda rule to establish wine rankings. Unlike alternative approaches, this method has a powerful attribute: it is well-defined even if the panelists’ quality relations are not required to exhibit demanding properties such as completeness or transitivity. We apply the method to rank Bordeaux wines assessed by different experts, some of whom do not rate all of the wines under consideration.

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg.No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：釜賀浩平/Kohei Kamaga

言語/Language：英語/English

Abstract: We study the effects of exposure to radiation fear in utero on health at birth and five years later, using universal birth records linked to Censuses in Japan. We are the first to assess maternal stress due to a risk factor that is intangible and uncertain—radiation exposure. We leverage the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in 2011 and create a quasi-experimental setting by focusing on children whose expected birthdates were within a 280-day window to the accident. We find radiation fear in utero causes a 30-gram decrease in birth weight, with a 19% and 38% increase in the risks of low birth weight and preterm delivery, respectively. The effects are more pronounced if expectant mothers are less educated or have toddlers, and if expectant fathers work in agriculture, indicating that the ability to collect information is important for stress alleviation and that food contamination is the main source of radiation fear. The findings have immediate implications for offspring health loss owing to maternal stress from intangible risk factors, such as infectious viruses. 

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg.No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe 

言語/Language：英語/English

Abstract: This study investigates the impact of transport investment on the incidence of conflict by combining georeferenced data on the evolution of transport networks in sub-Saharan Africa with geocoded data on conflict events from 1990 to 2014. To address the issue of the endogenous placement of networks, I exploit the variation of historical road length and its interaction with the distance to the national capital. The estimation results show that the extension of the paved road network on average decreases the episodes of conflict at the local level, while a great deal of heterogeneity is observed depending on the political strength of the ethnic groups residing in the region. To elucidate the mechanism, I construct additional measures including group-specific market access, guided by a theoretical framework of ethnic conflict across space. The mechanism analysis suggests that the transport investment plays a key role in monopolizing violence by the incumbent government through its greater benefit to politically stronger groups, but that the strength of this mechanism is mitigated by the induced conflict among nongovernmental armed groups mitigate when the state capacity is weak. 

場所：11号館321 & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: Building 11, Room 321 & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：樋口裕城 /Yuki Higuchi

言語/Language：英語/English

Abstract: As a single individual or a group, we often face decision making under multiple criteria. We study how to integrate the criteria for decision making in the environment where a profile of multiple criteria and a priority on them are given. In this context, a solution is a function that associates a profile of criteria and a set of alternatives with a subset of the alternatives. We advocate a family of the counter domination solutions, and show that this family includes some representative solutions in the literature. Our primal objective is to characterize each solution of this family and make clear the difference of solutions belonging to this family.

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg.No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：釜賀浩平/Kohei Kamaga

言語/Language：日本語/Japanese

Abstract: Using the universal court verdicts in China, we find that minorities receive significantly harsher penalties than the majority group. The lion parts of disparities can be explained by criminals’ spatial distributions and courts’ assignments, yet unexplainable gaps remain. Minorities receive 2.5% longer sentences and an 18% and 14% higher likelihood of life imprisonment and the death penalty. The disparities are more salient for groups with distinct religions and a history of conflict against the majority, for crime types often associated with social unrest (such as drug crimes). These disparities ceased when the sentencing guideline reform was implemented, suggesting that judges’ discretion is the source of the unfair case resolutions. 

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg.No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe

言語/Language：英語/English

Abstract: We show that judicial independence can reduce local protectionism and foster crossregional economic integration. We exploit a judicial independence reform in China with staggered roll-out since 2014. The reform removed local governments’ control over local courts’ financial and personnel decisions, thereby substantially improving local courts’ independence. Combining novel data on the universes of civil lawsuits and business registration records, we show that local defendants’ rate of winning court cases against non-local plaintiffs declined by 7.0% after the reform. The effect is mainly driven by improvements in the quality of judicial decisions and is more salient for politically connected local defendants. Over time, the reduction in local protectionism encouraged smaller non local firms to file lawsuits against larger local firms. Using the shareholding network extracted from business registration records, we find that the decline in local protectionism could attract 8.4% more inward investment flows into reformed localities. This has the potential to increase China’s GDP by 2.3% when the judicial independence reform is implemented nationwide.

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg.No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe

言語/Language：英語/English

Abstract: Gifted children and gifted education receive much attention in education systems around the world. This study estimates the impact of attending a gifted high school using administrative data from Vietnam, where gifted school students are selected based on entrance exam scores. To measure the impact of gifted high school attendance on students’ academic achievement, we use a regression discontinuity design to compare the academic achievement of students just above and just below the admission cutoff. The results show that for students in social science classes at a gifted high school, attending a gifted high school reduces the probability of choosing science tracks on the college entrance exam. For students in science classes (those taking exams on the same set of subjects), we find that attending a gifted high school reduces the average score on tests in science track subjects. Our follow-up survey indicate that insufficient teacher attention and a decline in utilizing extra tutoring services afford a partial explanation of the findings. 

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg.No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：長谷部拓也/Takuya Hasebe

言語/Language：英語/English

Abstract: In the 1990s, Amartya Sen coined the phrase “missing women,” demonstrating a terrible deficit of women in the developing world, and in India alone, about 37 million women are missing. What explains such a tragic phenomenon? In this paper, I study the political origins of missing women in India. By examining a historical event, I present evidence that a short-term policy implemented by the government can induce significant changes in sex ratios and initiate long-term persistent effects. In particular, I examine the draconian forced sterilization policy implemented by the Indian government between 1976 and 1977, under which more than 8 million individuals were sterilized. Using Vital Statistics, I first demonstrate that the forced sterilization policy led to a sharp rise in infant deaths between 0-7 days. Using the Census dataset and employing a Difference-in-Difference and event study estimation approach, I further document that the policy increased the ratio of boys to girls and caused a sizable decline in the number of girls.

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

幹事/Organizer：樋口裕城/Yuki Higuchi

言語/Language：英語/English

• Niklas Uliczka (Tohoku University)

• Markus Heckel (German Institute for Japanese Studies)

• Masaki Takahashi (Hitotsubashi University)

• Kohei Kamaga (Sophia University)

• Zhi-xiao Jia (Keio University)

• Yuki Higuchi (Sophia University)

Timetable 

Title and Abstract 

場所：2号館11階経済学部会議室B & ZOOM (HyFlex)

Venue: 11th Floor, Bldg. No.2 Meeting Room B & ZOOM (HyFlex)