Publications
"Heterogeneity in the local employment multipliers in the United States", with Michael J. Osei
Growth and Change, 2019, 50(3), 880-893.
Recent studies have found evidence of a local employment multiplier effect. For the most part, these studies provide an average estimate for all labor markets. In this paper, we examine how the average local employment multiplier, the effect of an exogenous increase in employment in the tradable sector on total employment, depends on the characteristics of the local labor market. Specifically, we estimate the average multipliers for coastal, noncoastal, large, and small metropolitan statistical areas across different time periods using data on 333 US metropolitan statistical areas. Overall, we find a reduced-form local employment multiplier ranging from 1.38 to 2.24, which is within the range of typically estimated local employment multipliers. In addition, the characteristics of the local labor market matter. The local multipliers appear larger in noncoastal and large metropolitan statistical areas. For small and coastal metros, the multiplier is closer to 1.5 than to 2.0 while in the case of large and noncoastal metros, it is closer to 2.0 than 1.5. The local multipliers are also sensitive to the time period considered.
"Causal Effects of the Fracking Boom on Long-Term Resident Workers” with John V. Winters, Zhengyu Cai, and Karen Maguire
Journal of Regional Science, 2021, 61(2), 387-406
Fracking innovations revolutionized the United States oil and gas industry and facilitated a boom in energy production in states with oil and gas resources. This paper examines effects of oil and gas booms within a state on individual employment and earnings. To account for endogenous migration decisions, we instrument for oil and gas production in workers’ state of residence via the predicted percent of oil and gas employment in their state of birth. We find statistically significant and economically meaningful positive effects. The bulk of the effects accrue to workers employed outside the oil and gas industry indicating sizable spillovers.
Working Papers
"The effect of trade liberalization on marriage and fertility: Evidence from Indian Districts" [Job Market Paper]
Using a district-level panel data constructed from four waves of decennial Indian Census covering 1981-2011, we examine the medium run (1991-2001) and long run (1991-2011) impacts of the 1991 trade liberalization in India on marriage and fertility rates among young women aged 15-34 years. We exploit the fact that the countrywide tariff reductions that varied across industries created exogenous local labor market shocks based on the initial industrial composition of the district. We find that districts that were more exposed to tariff cuts witnessed a larger increase in marriage rate, especially in urban areas, compared to districts that were less exposed to tariff cuts. Fertility rate declined in districts that were relatively more exposed to tariff reductions, with the effect mostly driven by the rural areas. On average, the trade reform had no negative impact on the employment of young men and women. While we can explain our findings on marriage rates with the help of aggregate labor market indicators which indicate no adverse effect on the workforce participation rate of young men and women, thus increasing their prospects of marriage, the decline in fertility points towards a quantity quality trade-off where families invest in the quality of children when economic prospects improve.
"Where do resource booms affect fertility? State-level evidence from the shale boom" with John V. Winters
The fracking boom of the mid-2000s has spurred strong interest in exploring its assorted effects on local economies. This paper uses individual level data from the 2001 – 2017 American Community Survey and 2000 Census to examine how the impact of the localized fracking booms on fertility and marriage outcomes among 18 to 34 years old women varies across different groups of energy states. The energy states are classified as ‘new’, ‘old’, and ‘low/non’ energy states based on their oil and gas employment shares in year 2000 and 2014. We observe differential impacts on fertility across different groups of oil states in response to the increased oil and gas employment. Overall increase in fertility in the new energy states is mostly driven by a rise in the non – marital fertility, while a decline in fertility in old energy states can be attributed to a fall in marital fertility. Contrasting responses to the shale boom may be rooted in the familiarity with the boom and bust cycles while making forward-looking decisions. None of the states experience any significant impact on marriage. Increased female economic independence and shifts in social attitudes over the recent decades may be other contributing factors.
"Trade Liberalization and its Impact on Social Group Welfare Gap"
In this paper, I examine whether increased competition due to the global integration of India following trade liberalization in 1991 led to a decrease in the taste-based discrimination. The gaps in economic outcomes between the disadvantaged groups Scheduled Castes/Tribes (SC/STs) and non-SC/STs are well documented in the literature, and most of the literature find that those gaps are not explained by differences in characteristics. Using the similar identification strategy as in my Job Market Paper, I examine whether the districts that witnessed larger tariff cuts experienced a differential change in conditional wage or per capita gaps between the non-disadvantaged and disadvantaged groups in the medium run (1991-2001) and long-run (1991-2011).
“A decompositional analysis of social group inequality: Evidence from India” [under review]
Using the nationally representative Indian household surveys collected by National Sample Survey Organization, we examine the welfare gaps across social groups for the entire distribution in 1983, 1993-94, 2004-05, and 2011-12. We use spatially adjusted per capita consumption expenditure as the measure of welfare and show that there exists significant welfare gap between Scheduled Tribes/ Scheduled Castes (STs/SCs) and General Category (GC) households at higher quantiles of the distribution, but the magnitude of the gap has declined over the years for the SC households. Using unconditional quantile regression decomposition we find that the coefficient effect (unexplained effect) dominates the endowment effect (explained effect) in explaining the gap in all four years. Further decomposition shows that difference in educational distribution across the ST/SC and GC households drives most part of the observed differences between them.