All papers listed here are available upon request.
Abstract: Tail treatment effects at extremal quantiles are critical for distributional policy evaluation because they often capture the most consequential welfare losses, downside risks, or unusually large gains. Classical partial-identification methods provide bounds on quantiles of treatment effects, but their empirical estimates become unreliable at extremal quantiles. This paper proposes a method for constructing upper and lower bounds for the extremal quantile of treatment effects under the Change-in-Changes framework. We establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed bound estimators and use simulation evidence to show that they outperform conventional empirical bounds in finite samples. We then apply the method to study the tail effects of China's state-owned enterprise reform on household net assets.
Presentations: 2026 Annual Workshop on Economics of Education in China (THU, Best Paper); 2026 Forum on Frontiers in Labor Economics (BNU); 2025 NCER-CCER (THU); 2025 National Doctoral Research Innovation Forum (PKU, First Prize); 2025 National Forum on Academic Innovation (ZJU, Best Paper); 2025 Doctoral Forum on Economic Sciences (PKU, Best Paper); 2025 Workshop on Applied Microeconometrics (PKU); 2025 Academic Forum on Intergenerational Mobility in China (RUC); 2025 National Forum for Doctoral Students in Applied Economics (XMU, Outstanding Paper); 2025 National Student Paper Competition in Public Economics and Policy (PKU, First Prize); 2025 National Development Youth Forum (PKU).
Abstract: How does broadening evaluation criteria foster human capital formation? This paper estimates individuals' long-term returns to a high-stakes physical education (PE) exam in China. In the 1990s, China gradually introduced a PE component into its High School Entrance Exam (zhongkao) across counties. Using a novel dataset on policy rollout timing, we find that this reform leads to higher earnings and employment for treated adolescents 20 years later. Their success stems from sustained exercise habits, which contribute to an innovative mindset and emotional resilience. Additionally, this reform combines a favorable benefit-cost ratio with inclusive gains, offering practical implications for exam system design in high-stakes testing environments.
Presentations: 2026 Seminar on Development, Urban, and Labor Economics (TJU); 2025 CEA (SJTU); 2025 Seminar on Urban and Spatial Economics (SJTU); 2025 International Conference of Climate Leadership (HIT); 2024 Annual Conference for Student Economists (SUFE, Second Prize); 2024 Annual Conference of the China Forum of Labor Economists (SUFE); 2024 National Student Paper Competition on Development Economics (SYSU, Third Prize); 2024 Conference of Chinese Women Economists (WHU); 2024 National Development Youth Forum (PKU).
Abstract: This study provides novel evidence that air pollution widens the gender gap in rural labor supply. We identify this effect by exploiting China's heating policy within a regression discontinuity difference-in-differences (RD-DD) design. When environmental hazards raise dependents' care needs, rational households respond by reducing the labor supply of lower-earning women to attenuate welfare losses. We find that the effects differ by household composition: women living with children under age 16 are more vulnerable, whereas those co-residing with grandparents are less affected. This pattern highlights that, in China and many other countries, grandparents often serve as caregivers rather than as care recipients typically depicted in the literature. A rough counterfactual simulation indicates that raising China’s 2010 PM10 level to 200 µg/m³ would widen the weekly gender labor supply gap by 1.08 hours and 1.20 hours in households with and without co-residing grandparents, respectively.
I welcome discussions of any of the papers listed here, as well as opportunities for collaboration.
Extremal Distributional Difference-in-Differences
An Underground Race: Public Transit Access, Employer Competition, and the Gender Pay Gap
Revisiting Intergenerational Mobility in China: Beyond Aggregate Measures
Where Thorns Bloom: Tutoring Firm Entry, Educational Competition, and Marriage Outcomes