PART 2: Introducing Narrative Based Storylines: A new way to navigate climate risk?

Climate storylines are qualitative, evidence-based narratives describing plausible climate futures and the pathways through which climate and non-climate drivers interact to shape risk.

They are not predictions, and they avoid probabilistic language. Instead, they:

• represent multiple plausible outcomes

• integrate scientific and local knowledge

• map causal chains and interactions (e.g., rainfall → crop failure → market shocks → migration)

• make uncertainty usable rather than paralysing

• open dialogue about adaptation choices under uncertainty
  
  

As the Red Cross Climate Centre emphasises, storylines help humanitarians “translate uncertain climate projections into more tangible outcomes for decision-making”. Jack et al. (2020) show how Climate Risk Narratives act as “boundary objects” that help communities, scientists, and policymakers communicate across different knowledge systems.

Drawing from these sources, storylines should be:

1. Plausible

Grounded in physical climate evidence and local experience, but acknowledging uncertainty.

2. Evidence-base Combine:

• climate science

• historical events

• indigenous/traditional knowledge

• local lived experience

3. Causal

Each storyline follows a traceable chain of cause–effect relationships.

Example: Dry spells → crop yield reductions → household food deficits → increased reliance on food aid.

4. Context-specific

Developed with local stakeholders.

Jack et al. show that co-production increases salience, trust, and ownership.

5. Multi-dimensional & reflective of the real world

Capture compounding risks, e.g.:

• climate + conflict

• climate + water governance

• climate + displacement
  
  

6. Complementary 

Storylines do not replace models; they help you ask better questions for models, or interpret modelling results more meaningfully.

Southern African City Climate Risk Narratives (FRACTAL) Project

1. Developed with local urban planners and communities in Cape Town, Lusaka, Maputo, etc.

2. Used to map burning issues like water scarcity & heatwaves.

3. Storylines helped urban planners integrate climate information without overwhelming them with data. 

WEB RESOURCE: https://weadapt.org/knowledge-base/climate-services/climate-risk-narratives/ 

The FRACTAL project has a wonderful podcast series reflecting on approaches to and lessons from developing narrative based approaches for adaptation and decision making. You can find them at this website:

https://weadapt.org/knowledge-base/climate-services/fractal-podcast-series/  

Instructions:

Choose one episode from the FRACTAL podcast series:

https://weadapt.org/knowledge-base/climate-services/fractal-podcast-series/ 

Listen carefully, taking notes on key concepts, tensions, and examples.

Complete the reflection questions below.