Sector-Specific Inflation Uncertainty

This website provides access to aggregate time-series indices of uncertainty surrounding consumers’ expectations for sector-specific price changes. The indices are constructed using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and follow the spirit of the Inflation Uncertainty project.

About the Indices

The indices cover consumers’ expectations for price changes in five essential expenditure categories:

• Gas

• Food

• Education

• Medical care

• Rent

Each index is based on the Round-Number Rounding Index (RNRI), which uses consumers’ tendency to report forecasts as round numbers to measure the uncertainty underlying their expectations. The indices range from 0 to 100. Higher values indicate greater uncertainty about future sector-specific price changes, while lower values indicate less uncertainty.

The dataset contains monthly aggregate time series from June 2013 to June 2025.

Research Paper

The construction, interpretation, and empirical applications of these indices are explained in the accompanying research paper:

[Sector-Specific Household Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Policy]

Citation

If you use these indices in academic research, policy analysis, or other published work, please cite the accompanying paper:

@article{srivastava2026sector,

title={Sector-Specific Household Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Policy},

author={Srivastava, Prachi and Schnattinger, Philip},

journal={Available at SSRN 7165639},

year={2026}

}