Work in progress:


Hidden Debt Revelations, with David Mihalyi, Philipp Nickol and César Sosa-Padilla

NBER Working Paper 32947; Reject and resubmit at The Quarterly Journal of Economics

World Bank Blog; Slides from NBER IFM Spring Meeting, March 2024

Summary in The Economist, NPR Planet Money Podcast, UNU Wider Statement on the International Financial Architecture


Coping with Disasters: Two Centuries of International Official Lending, with Carmen M. Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

NBER Working Paper 27343; summary at VoxEU; press coverage in FT, LeMonde, Sueddeutsche


China as an International Lender of Last Resort, with Brad Parks, Carmen M. Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

NBER Working Paper 31105; data available here. Selected media coverage: NYT, FT (and Alphaville), WSJ (also see here), Bloomberg, CNN, Economist


Predicting Debt Distress in Low-Income Countries, with Clemens Graf von Luckner, Aart Kraay and Rita Ramalho

Presentation by Clemens at the IMF Annual Research Conference


How China Collateralizes, with Anna Gelpern, Omar Haddad, Paulina Kintzinger, Brad Parks and Christoph Trebesch

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 20379. Media coverage: Reuters, FAZ 


Opening Up: Capital Flows and Financial Sector Dynamics in Low-Income Developing Countries, with Futoshi Narita

IMF Working Paper No. 2021/237 


The Financial Returns on China's Belt and Road, with Lukas Franz, Brad Parks, Carmen M. Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

Slides from World Bank ABCDE conference, July 2024


Creditor Dispersion and Coordination in Sovereign Debt Markets, with Clemens Graf von Luckner

Financial Cooperation in a Fragmented World, with Javier Bianchi, Giovanni Rosso and César Sosa-Padilla


Published papers:


How China Lends: A Rare Look Into 100 Debt Contracts with Foreign Governments, with Anna Gelpern, Scott Morris, Bradley Parks and Christoph Trebesch

Economic Policy; data and Chinese lending contracts are available in a public repository here

Selected media coverage: The Economist, Bloomberg, Financial Times (also here, here and here), Washington Post, Devex, Reuters, Sueddeutsche, Spiegel


Debt Distress on China's Belt and Road, with Brad Parks, Carmen M. Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

Data and replication package available here, published in the AEA Papers & Proceedings.


Hidden Defaults, with Carmen M. Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925, a short version was published in the AEA Papers & Proceedings.

Data and replication file; selected media coverage: The Economist (see also here and here), Handelsblatt, Welt, FAZ, Spiegel, WSJ


China's Overseas Lending, with Carmen M. Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

Journal of International Economics, data and replication available here. Earlier version: NBER WP 26050.

JIE Calvo Award 2024; Summaries available at VoxEU, Harvard Business Review and at CGD (response to critics)

Selected media coverage: The Economist, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, CNBC, NZZ, FAZ, Der Spiegel