Research

Selected Work in Progress:

The Untold Story of Internal Migration in Germany: Life-cycle Patterns, Developments, and the Role of Education

with Anton Barabasch, Guido Heineck, and Kamila Cygan-Rehm

This paper examines internal migration from a lifetime perspective using unique data on detailed residential biographies of individuals born in Germany between 1944 and 1986. We first describe life-cycle patterns of internal mobility and potential differences across space, time, and socio-demographic groups. We find substantial differences across the life course, with major location changes around important educational decisions and striking differences across groups, especially by educational attainment. We then investigate causality in the substantial education-mobility gradient. For identification, we exploit two policy-induced sources of variation, each shifting towards better education at a different margin of the ability distribution. Using a difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity design, we find no effect of these policies on internal mobility. 

Empty Class to Empty Streets? The Effect of Permanent School Closures on Regional Economic Development and Voting Behaviour

with Marcel Helbig 

This Paper investigates the effect of permanent School Closures in Germany on regional economic development. For this purpose, this paper draws upon several distinctive datasets. First, we evaluate administrative data provided by the Ministries of Education from all federal states in Germany and link these data with precise longitudinal and latitudinal information. This allows us to precisely track any permanent school closure and the respective distance to the next comparable institution. Secondly, datasets from the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development were utilised, which provided detailed information on economic performances. These included total tax income, unemployment rates, net migration, birth statistics and territorial changes for all municipality associations in Germany. Finally, data on different voting outcomes, including federal, state and local elections, were used to assess any voting behaviour. This was provided by the respective State Statistical Offices. The combination of all data sets allows for the construction of a balanced panel data set on a yearly basis, spanning the period from 2000 until 2020. This data set encompasses all 10,753 municipalities in Germany. The investigation of the effect of permanent school closures on economic performance and voting behaviour employs two-way fixed effects and matched difference-in-differences methods.

A longitudinal analysis of permanent school closures reveals that a substantial majority of such closures occurred in East Germany, often coinciding with changes in territorial reforms and municipal consolidation. However, both school closures and territorial reforms are not exclusive to East Germany. Our preliminary findings indicate that permanent school closures in Germany do not significantly impact population or gender composition within the affected municipality. However, they do result in a three-percentage point increase in long-term unemployment and a two-percentage point decrease in taxation income. Furthermore, there is evidence of a shift in voting behaviour in communal elections from traditional political parties to smaller parties, single candidates and voter associations.