Junior Projects 2024-25
Themes
1. Rising temperatures and violence
Rising temperatures have been shown to influence various aspects of the economy, including employment, migration, and GDP growth. Given these effects, ongoing climate change is expected to affect economic activities. This research project aims to understand another channel through which rising temperatures influence the economy: the prevalence of violent actions by individuals. The project group utilizes either a country-level macro dataset or a finer dataset from a particular country to analyze the effects of rising temperatures on violence, measured by statistics such as violent crime rates, gun ownership, and armed conflicts.
Related studies
Breckner, Miriam and Uwe Sunde (2019) "Temperature extremes, global warming, and armed conflict: new insights from high resolution data." World Development, 123 (November), 104624.
Cane, Mark A., Edward Miguel, Marshall Burke, Solomon M. Hsiang, David B. Lobell, Kyle C. Meng, and Shanker Satyanath (2014) "Temperature and violence." Natura Climate Change, 4: 234-235.
Colmer, Jonathan and Jennifer L. Doleac (2023) "Access to Guns in the Heat of the Moment: More Restrictive Gun Laws Mitigate the Effect of Temperature on Violence." forthcoming in Review of Economics and Statistics.
Databases
The Climate Change Knowledge Portal of the World Bank https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/
The Replication File of Dell et al. (2012) "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4(3): 66–95. https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/114251/version/V1/view
2. Right-to-work laws and labor market effects of globalization in the US
Labor market effects of increasing international trade and migration have been studied extensively in recent years. Existing studies have shown that a sudden and substantial increase in imports from China reduced manufacturing employment and increased the unemployment rate in the regions that are more exposed to these import shocks in the US. This project aims to understand whether the labor market effects of globalization were magnified or mitigated through institutional differences across regions, for example, whether the state has a right-to-work law or not. This project utilizes a dataset from the US at the state level, county level, or commuting zone level.
Related studies
Autor, David H., David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson (2013) "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States." American Economic Review, 103(6): 2121–68.
Cristea, Anca D. and John Lopresti (2024) "Organized Labor When Things Go South: Unions and the Labor Market Consequences of NAFTA." Unpublished manuscript.
Fortin, Nicole, Thomas Lemieux, and Neil Lloyd (2022) "Right-to-Work Laws, Unionization, and Wage Setting." NBER Working Paper No. 30098.
Yu, Chan (2022) "The role of immigrants in the United States labor market and Chinese import competition." Journal of International Economics, 144(September): 103792.
Databases
Right-to-Work Law Resources https://www.ncsl.org/labor-and-employment/right-to-work-resources
State Immigration Data Sheets https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/readingroom/state-immigration-data-sheets
3. The role of financial sectors in mitigating or magnifying the effect of financial crises
Financial crises have been shown to deteriorate a country's economic activities, thereby reducing GDP. This project aims to understand the role of countries' financial sectors' characteristics—e.g., the private credit-to-GDP ratio, the ease of access to the banking sector, and financial development indicators—in mitigating or magnifying the effects of financial crises. This project utilizes a country-level macro dataset.
Related studies
Benguria, Felipe and Alan M. Taylor (2020) "After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade." American Economic Review: Insights, 2(4): 509–526.
Hutchison, Michael M. and Ilan Noy (2005) "How Bad Are Twins? Output Costs of Currency and Banking Crises." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 37(4): 725-752.
Jordà, Òscar, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor (2011) "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons." IMF Economic Review, 59(2): 340-378.
Databases
The Global Financial Development of the World Bank https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0038648
The World Development Indicators of the World Bank https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0037712/World-Development-Indicators
Global Crises Data by Country, Harvard Business School https://www.hbs.edu/behavioral-finance-and-financial-stability/data/Pages/global.aspx ; Excel File https://www.hbs.edu/behavioral-finance-and-financial-stability/Documents/ChartData/MapCharts/20160923_global_crisis_data.xlsx
The Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory https://www.nber.org/research/data/jorda-schularick-taylor-macrohistory
4. Refugee crises and their effects on host countries
International migration may have effects on various aspects of host countries. This project aims to understand the impact of international migration or refugee crises on host countries' economic indicators such as GDP growth, employment, unemployment rates, and other statistics. The project utilizes either a country-level macro dataset or a dataset from a particular host country such as Türkiye, Germany, or the US, if such a dataset is available.
Related studies
Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre, Yusuf Kenan Bağır, Seyit Mümin Cılasun, and Murat Güray Kırdar (2023) "Consequences of a massive refugee influx on firm performance and market structure." Journal of Development Economics, 162 (May): 103081.
Altındağ, Onur, Ozan Bakış, and Sandra V. Rozo (2020) "Blessing or burden? Impacts of refugees on businesses and the informal economy." Journal of Development Economics, 146(September): 102490.
Bahar, Dany, Christopher Parsons, and Pierre-Louis Vézina (2022) "Refugees, trade, and FDI." Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 38(3): 487–513.
Erten, Bilge and Pinar Keskin (2021) "Female employment and intimate partner violence: Evidence from Syrian Refugee inflows to Turkey." Journal of Development Economics, 150(May): 102607.
Mayda, Anna-Maria, Christopher Parsons, Han Pham, and Pierre-Louis Vézina (2022) "Refugees and foreign direct investment: Quasi-experimental evidence from US resettlements." Journal of Development Economics, 156(May): 102818.
Tumen, Semih (2015) "The use of natural experiments in migration research." IZA World of Labor.
Databases
"Refugee population by country or territory of asylum" of the World Development Indicators of the World Bank https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SM.POP.REFG
The World Development Indicators of the World Bank https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0037712/World-Development-Indicators
Dataset by Dreher, A., Langlotz, S., Matzat, J. and Parsons, C. (2020). Immigration, Political Ideologies and the Polarization of American Politics. CESifo WP 8789. https://www.refugeeresettlementdata.com/data.html