Job Market Paper
"Energy Choice, Air Pollution, and Public Health: Evidence from Turkey's Natural Gas Transition"
Abstract: In the last twenty years, Turkey has experienced a rapid shift from solid fuels to natural gas, driven by the nationwide rollout of distribution infrastructure. This rollout created wide variation across provinces in both the timing of access and the scale of adoption. I study how this transition affected public health. Using province–year data for 81 provinces from 2011–2019, I examine how increase in residential and industrial natural gas consumption affect mortality and morbidity rates. Relative to prior studies documenting mortality gains from natural gas expansion, this paper makes three contributions. First, it relies on actual consumption data to capture the dynamic, dose–response nature of fuel switching. Second, it broadens the scope beyond mortality to include morbidity, highlighting delayed effects and healthcare responses. Third, it quantifies the full pathway from cleaner fuel use to pollution reduction to health gains. My main identification strategy is a dynamic difference-in-differences with continuous treatment (de Chaisemartin, D’Haultfœuille, and Vazquez-Bare, 2024), which accommodates staggered rollout and heterogeneous effects. To complement the analysis and address potential endogeneity, I also employ two distinct IV approaches. My results indicate substantial health gains. A 10 m³ per-capita increase in residential natural gas consumption leads to a 4.3% drop in cardiovascular mortality and a 3.6% drop in respiratory mortality over two post-adoption years. Hospital admissions fall by 3.0%, with no evidence of change in bed-days. At the national scale, these estimates translate to about 4,000 fewer deaths and 4 million fewer hospital admissions annually for every additional 10 m³ per capita. The analysis reveals that the health improvements are driven primarily by residential natural gas consumption rather than industrial use, as residential adoption directly replaces highly polluting solid fuels and align with measured reductions in PM₁₀ and SO₂ levels. Using a modern continuous-treatment DiD with IV validation, this study strengthens the causal link from residential fuel switching to health. The results highlight substantial short- to medium-term public health gains achievable through cleaner transitional energy sources like natural gas in developing countries, offering critical policy insights for similar energy transition strategies elsewhere.
Work in Progress
"Transboundary Impact of Military Conflicts on Air Quality in Neighboring Countries" with Yongjoon Park
Abstract: We investigate the transboundary effects of armed conflicts on air quality and public health in neighboring countries, specifically focusing on the Syrian Civil War and the Ukraine Russia War. While extensive literature has documented internal impacts of conflicts, their external environmental consequences have remained understudied. Using detailed conflict events data, ground-level air quality monitoring, and weather data, this research assesses how military activities in conflict zones affect air pollution levels across national borders. The analysis applies fixed effects methods that consider proximity and wind direction, distinguishing impacts experienced by downwind versus non-downwind areas. Additionally, instrumental variable approach, using ceasefire occurrences as exogenous shifts in conflict intensity, are employed to address potential endogeneity. Findings indicate that armed conflicts significantly elevate particulate matter concentrations in neighboring countries. Importantly, pollution effects are substantially amplified for regions situated downwind from conflict areas. Moreover, conflicts involving chemical weapons or grenades have a more pronounced impact than other types of arms. Our findings also indicate that the Ukraine-Russia war has led to increased air pollution related mortality in neighboring regions near the Ukrainian border. These insights underscore the necessity of acknowledging cross-border air quality impacts in conflict evaluations and international policymaking.
"The Impact of Very High Inflation on Healthcare Resource Allocation and Public Health: Evidence from Turkey" with Lucy X. Wang
Abstract: The paper explores the potential impacts of very high inflation on healthcare systems and public health, with a focus on Turkey’s prolonged periods of high inflation and its recent inflationary crisis. While extensive research has addressed the health effects of economic recessions and unemployment, the direct implications of sustained inflation, particularly extreme cases where annual consumer price inflation surpasses 80%, remain understudied. The study aims to examine how severe inflation influences healthcare resource allocation, accessibility, and overall public health outcomes, including mortality, morbidity, and self-rated health status. It investigates whether inflation-driven economic disruptions have led to shifts in healthcare availability, quality, and physician labor distribution, especially affecting vulnerable populations. Using detailed regional-level macroeconomic and healthcare data, alongside repeated cross-sectional health survey data, this research plans to apply econometric methods including fixed effects, difference-in-differences, and event study analyses. By isolating the unique effects of inflation, distinct from austerity or recession scenarios, the study seeks to provide novel insights into how persistent price instability alone can strain healthcare systems and compromise public health, even in contexts without explicit healthcare budget cuts.