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The 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial election, an election that tested democrats in the symbol of their burgeoning strength in the suburbs, was a mild upset where Former Governor Terry McCaulliffe lost against Carlyle CEO Glenn Younkin.
Most rating agencies saw the tide shift in the final few days leading up to the election, evidenced by a lackluster, to downright atrocious campaign from Mcauliffe, Younkin was able to benefit from the democrat’s weaknesses to the first statewide victory for the VA GOP since 2009
Younkin’s victory came through doing near uniformly better than former President Trump across the commonwealth of Virginia, with his best improvements coming from the southside of VA in the Appalachian 9th district, and Gov. Northams own Hampton Roads/VA Beach
Adding onto this, the mixture of Younkin’s win, and down ballot lag in the commonwealth cost the Democrat’s the VA LG office that would have helped them solidify their control in the state Senate that now rests on the perilous hold of two Moderate Democrats.
Furthermore, Younkin’s 2% win, mixed with increasing polarization proved to be a hill too daunting to overcome for 7 year incumbent AG Mark Herring, who went down to defeat to Cuban Republican Jason Miyares.
All in All, combined with the loss of the VA House of Delegates, this was a disastrous night for the Democrats, portending that their strength in the New Blue State of Virginia is one that will only truly be solid in federal elections, while keeping State elections competitive.
March 3, 2022 Addendum
The 2021 VA Gubernatorial election by Legislative district, former Gov Terry McAuliffe ended and now gov Glenn Youngkin ended up tying with regards to state senate districts each winning 20 a piece.
By contrast, Glen Youngkin ended up winning 52 House districts to 48 Districts with His 50th seat clocking in at a 2.18% win and his 51st at a 2.12%, as such these tipping point seats are just under a quarter of a point more Republican than the state which Was Youngkin +1.94%
In terms of control, the GOP has a good shot at getting the 20 seats for senate control and 21 seats for outright senate control once incumbents are factored in, however due to their 20th seat being Youngkin +0.8% less than he won the state by.
As such, the Democrats have a better shot at the senate, which depending on environment and incumbency should be easier than the house whose Median seat is to the right of the state, a bias in the opposite direction of the senate.
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