2024 TX U.S. Senate Election

The 2024 U.S. Senate Election in Texas, a contest between two-term Incumbent Ted Cruz, and Democratic congressman Collin Allred proved to be somewhat of rebound for the unpopular Cruz, winning by R+8.5% in this R+2% year when he barely scrapped by by R+2% in the D+8% year of 2018.

Undoubtetly a better showing against a candidate that proved Stronger than Beto O'Rourke in 2018—though facing harsher headwinds against them—Cruz's win is mostly due to a combination of two factors, 1) Republican Nominee Donald Trump's R+13% win at the top of the ticket, and 2, Ted Cruz's gargantuan spending advantage.

While News organizations highlighted Cruz's relentless focus on culture war issues—that Allred was on the defensive on—as a major factor in his win, the factor that really sealed it for Cruz was his spending.

In terms of spending as a candidate, Cruz Outspent Allred by $11.5 Million, $103,928,572 to $92,436,082—not that big a delta on itself, but once pac spending is taken into account, the Delta balloons to a $35.5 Million Spending advantage with $43.8 Million Supporting Cruz/Opposing Allred, and $19.8 Million Supporting Allred/Opposing Cruz

This combination of facts, served to send Cruz to a third term in the senate, and—for the time being—has dashed the Democratic Party's hopes of being competitive in Texas outside of deeply blue years.

Usual Colours

The 2024 TX Senate election in the 2026-2032 TX-28th CD, Due to a combination of downballot lag and Incumbent Senator Ted Cruz's unpopularity in this rapidly R Trending South Texas Seat, Democratic Congressman Collin Allred nearly best two-term Senator Ted Cruz in a seat held by Henry Cuellar since 2004.

U.S. Senate election

U.S. President election

On the same night, Kamala Harris—following her nomination after Biden Withdrew because of a catastrophic debate performance—lost this seat by 10% due to the Hispanic Trends in South Texas. This result came after it shifted from Clinton+36% in 2016, to Biden +10% in 2020.