2025 NJ Assembly Elections

Statewide

The 2025 NJ Assembly elections, a contest that resulted in Democrats comfortably holding their assembly majority, and gaining a supermajority in doing so saw them sweeping all of the most competitive elections, reestablishing a foothold in LD-02, and winning LD-25 on the assembly level for the first time since Watergate.

Apropos of spending advantages and orthodox block voting, the strongest candidates were LD-02's GOP ticket headed by Don Guardian and Claire Swift (the latter of whom lost), LD-36's Dem ticket led by Gary Schaer and Clinton Calabrese, LD-38's Chris Tully and Lisa Swain,

LD-03's Dem ticket with Heather Simmons and Dave Bailey jr, and LD-30's Dem Candidate Avi Schall — who won the most GOP district in the state due to the support of Lakewood's Vaad.

Overall, however, the Dem and GOP assembly candidates broadly matched Sherrill and Ciattarelli's showing, contrasting with Spanberger's overperformance in Virginia. In doing so, showing how most races in NJ broadly followed the partisan lean due to how contested the governor's race was;

With the few significant overperformances compared to the Governor's race coming due to the special strengths, significant spending advantages of the candidates over their opponents, or special local factors (mostly Orthodox block voting).

NJ Legislative District 36

The 2025 NJ LD-36 Assembly Election, a sleepy contest between Incumbents Gary Schaer (D-Passaic) and Clinton Calabrese (D-Cliffside Park) and Republican Challengers; Former Lyndhurst BOE Member Chris Musto, and Carlstadt Councilwoman Diane Debiase resulted in a commanding victory for Schaer and Calabrese that saw them almost match their 2023 Performance in the district.

A district placed on the radar of competitiveness due to Donald Trump having won the seat by R+4.5% in 2024, the race ended up being less high profile than the ones in south Jersey, or the nearby LD-38, with most not perceiving the incumbents to be in much danger.

Here, the Republican challengers, outspent by more than 2:1 sought to tie the incumbents to the unpopularity of incumbent governor Phil Murphy, blaming them for rising taxes and costs,

However, campaigning on the Anchor renters assistance program, property tax rebate checks and their 'fighting for the district' Schaer and Calabrese had significant institutional advantages —

Calabrese being a scion of the Calabrese machine that has controlled Cliffside Park for three quarters of a century and Gary Schaer being the first Orthodox Jew elected to the legislature, and high up in Mayor Hector Lora's Passaic City Organization

These advantages aided in helping not just the assembly incumbents winning LD-36, but aiding Democratic Governor candidate Mikie Sherrill in matching former President Joe Biden's Performance in the seat.

Compared to Sherrill's performance, Calabrese and Schaer overperformed most among the Orthodox Jewish community in Passaic City, with them likewise overperforming strongly in Cliffside Park, Paul Sarlo's Wood-Ridge, and in Fairview.

By contrast, Republicans performed strongest in Carlstadt and North Arlington, the former likewise giving Debiase and Musto a strong showing in the primary.

Sources

NJ Legislative District 03

The 2025 NJ LD-03 State assembly election, a D+3% win in this Trump+7% Seat saw incumbent Democrats Heather Simmons and Dave Bailey jr win reelection over Gloucester county Commissioner Chris Konawel and Harrison Deputy Mayor Lawrence Moore

Emphasizing their south Jersey roots — especially Bailey's Salem county Roots — the endangered legislators focused on a message of affordability, highlighting a "we get it" message in heir advertisements towards the affordability crisis.

With this message intended as a play on Jack Ciattarelli's ads where he argued that Mikie Sherrill and Trenton Politicians 'just don't get it' Bailey and Simmons campaigned on regulating "greedy utility companies" and capping rate increases at 2%.

they also focused on their work to fight "typical politicians" to lower property taxes, Insurance taxes, and get anchor checks for constituents; criticizing Republicans for seeking to cut these programs that help many district residents

The GOP campaign was, comparatively, underfunded relying mostly on Jack Ciattarelli's coattails to try & deliver a win; however such a victory never materialized as Ciattarelli went down to a concurrent D+14% statewide defeat (& narrow 2% win in a seat he carried by R+16 in 2021)

However, as it is one of the few — if not the only — Ciattarelli-Assembly D District (on top of Trump winning it by 7%); the LD-03 incumbents have the largest target on their backs out of any Democrats for the 2027 off-year election.

However, they're likely to be buoyed by Popular state senator John Burzichelli & the Norcross machine seeking to lock out Rs on the Gloucester County commission.

Sources:

NJ Legislative District 33

The 2025 NJ LD-33 Assembly Election, a contest between Democratic incumbent Gabriel Rodriguez, Businessman and three time north Bergen Mayoral runner up Larry Wainstein, and Republican candidates Anthony Valdez and Cynthia DePice resulted in a landslide for the Democrats despite the Republicans receiving Cross party Support from North Bergen Mayor Nick Sacco's North Bergen municipal machine

Here, following Stack & the HCDO forcing Sacco-supported incumbent Julio Marenco into retirement by withdrawing their support for his reelection, and following the defeat of the Sacco-Fulop Democrats for Change candidates in the primary — frm North Bergen school board member Tony Hector & Union City GOP Chairman Frank Alonso — Sacco mulled neutrality for most of the summer before endorsing the entire GOP ticket in LD-33.

Most notably endorsing Republican governor candidate Jack Ciattarelli, but also endorsing Valdez and DePice as well as GOP Sheriff Candidate Elvis Alvarez.

However, a mixture of the Mikie Sherrill's rebound off of Kamala Harris' atrocious D+13% performance with in the district, and a strong local campaign by the Democrat's assembly candidates — headed by Union City Mayor/State Senator Brian Stack — proved to be a more successful organization than that ran by Nick Sacco; who likewise struggled to deliver North Bergen to his endorsed candidates in the June Primary.

The end result was a Democratic landslide in the district where Stack's Democratic Assembly candidates slightly overperformed Mikie Sherrill, with Mikie Sherrill herself likewise matching Hillary Clinton's strong D+49% margin in the 33rd Legislative District.

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NJ Legislative District 08

The 2025 NJ LD-08 Assembly Election, a contest between Dem Incumbent Andrea Katz, Teacher Anthony Angelozi, and GOP Incumbent Assemblymember Michael Torrissi jr & Former Assemblymember Brandon Umba in what was the closest Assembly Race in 2023 resulted in Dems sweeping both seats

Herein, the campaigns took on an echo of the statewide campaigns

To this effect Katz & Angelozzi focused on protecting the district's farmers, taking on "greedy" utility and insurance companies and fighting Phil Murphy's energy Mandates; broadly promoting a message that they don't fight for "them" but for the district

By contrast, Torrissi and Umba blamed "Trenton Democrats" for harming south Jersey — not properly funding the district's schools via the school funding formula, attacking Trenton Dems for policies that they claimed raised taxes, utility and insurance costs — while claiming that they would fix these issues, bring down costs and overspending and properly fund schools

Overall, since both sides focused on a popular affordability message — with Katz & Angelozzi also briefly mentioning fighting Trump in their ads — and the rough spending parity that both sides saw, the statewide campaign proved to be decisive in sending the two Dems to Trenton,

Here, Mikie Sherrill's 5% win in the seat in her impressive D+14.3% Statewide win gave Democrats wind in their backs, allowing for the incumbent Assemblywoman Andrea Katz to win reelection, and the narrowly defeated 2023 challenger Anthony Angelozi sweeping both seats

Sources

https://adstransparency.google.com/advertiser/AR09738963395947790337?region=US&topic=political

NJ Legislative District 01

The 2025 NJ LD-01 Assembly election, a double digit (R)+10.1% GOP victory was a surprisingly narrow victory for the GOP incumbents in a seat that they had won by (R)+26.2% just two years prior on the coattails of state Senator Mike Testa.

A major reason for this, despite the non-existent Dem campaign from Democrats for change aligned Democrats Carolyn Rush and Carol Sabo was Jack Ciattarelli only winning LD-01 by 5.7% — vastly down from the 18.7% margin he attained in 2021.

Here, with the GOP incumbents outspending the Democrats a combined 10-1, that spending gave them a good 4.4% overperformance from Ciattarelli's numbers, overperforming most in Cape May where there is a strong local GOP infrastructure, and worst in Cumberland, where the Democratic party showed signs of life after being partially moribund for the past four years

2025 NJ LD-01 Assembly Election

2025 NJ Governor Election in LD-01

Difference between Governor and Assembly Elections

NJ Legislative District 21

The 2025 Assembly Election in LD-21, a contest between frm Prosecutor Andrew Macurdy & Garfield Councilman Vinnie Kearney vs incumbents Nancy Muñoz & Michelle Matsikoudis resulted in the Dems — after multiple attempts — ousting the GOP in this Harris, Biden, Clinton seat

With Muñoz and Matsikoudis's past record of winning tough races, few sought to take them on — with only Macurdy and Kearney rising to the challenge.

Here, while the Republican incumbents campaigned on their work on domestic violence, they also sought to attack their Democratic Challengers as Soft on Crime — highlighting MaCurdy 'cutting plea-deals with violent criminals' as a prosecutor & Kearney's raising taxes while on the Garwood council

But they were met with two well funded barrages from Macurdy and Kearney, with the former criticizing the incumbents for voting against funding NJ Transit and common sense gun control measures — popular in this federally Democratic District.

Macurdy also campaigned on his record as a prosecutor, emphasizing how he took down criminals and 'worked to bring police and mental health workers together for crisis calls' — mentioning that it was this type of common sense solutions that he would bring to Trenton.

with both Macurdy and Kearney mentioning how they'll be independent thinkers in Trenton — even if the latter was bankrolled by Senate President Nick Scutari — Kearney campaigned on his having been a former police detective, his responsiveness to constituents and how he'd fight anyone to 'cut costs on utilities, prescription drugs and healthcare'

In the end, the Democratic candidate's appeals — and Sherrill winning the seat in the gubernatorial Election by a strong 11.3% — allowed them to win the most ancestrally GOP legislative district in the state, only underperforming Governor-Elect Sherrill's performance by 3.3%

Sources

Kearney

Macurdy

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