2024 NJ Senatorial Election

The 2024 U.S. Senate election in New Jersey, a contest between 3rd District Representative Andy Kim and Cape May Hotelier Curtis Bashaw turned in the Closest U.S. Senate election since 2000 with Kim winning by 9.60%

Here, Kim began the race as the underdog—not in the general but the primary—with most of the State's Democratic Machine supporting NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy for Senate. Here, after a grueling Local party endorsement season Murphy dropped out and Endorsed Kim in an attempt to preserve NJ's old County ballot line, making Andy Kim the nominee

Concurently getting the GOP nomination was Curtis Bashaw—here, he got it through NJ GOP support, with his primary backer being GOP South Jersey Powerbroker LD-01 State Senator Mike Testa. And while underperforming, Bashaw road Trump's coattails to the narrowest Margin for a GOP senate candidate since Bob Franks in 2000

However, the narrowness of Andy Kim's win obscures what was otherwise an impressive showing in an otherwise sleepy Race as had Kamala Harris not collapsed by 10% vs Biden's 16.0% win, then Kim would have been on the cusp of one of the more impressive showings for a Democrat since Jim Florio in 1989.

Despite the collapse, Kim still overperformed Vice President Kamala Harris throughout the state, only underperforming in Cape May and some ancestrally Republican Suburbs. Kim did best when Compared to Harris with Koreans, Orthodox Jews, Arabs and Latinos

Here, Kim overperperformed most significantly in Perth Amboy, Paterson's Latino and Muslim Precincts, Passaic City's Orthodox Precincts, Lakewood, Palisades Park and his old 2019-2023 CD-03, along with a few other places that have the aforementioned Demographics

All in All, while Harris's collapse significantly dragged down Kim's margin, within the context of Harris' performance Kim ended up having a strong performance, one which squares with his string of solid performances since 2018 and will likely continue in the forseeable future.