2021 NJ Gubernatorial Election

The 2021 Election for NJ's Governor, an election few thought would be close, and even fewer thought Incumbent Governor (D) Phil Murphy would lose was the first time since Brendan Byrne in 1977 that NJ Reelected a Democratic Governor.

While this election had many suprises, the main surprise to many was Murphy's complete collapse in South Jersey, and the hit to the South Jersey "Norcross" Machine that also ended up taking out Senate President Steve Sweeney.

This collapse resulted in Murphy loosing the historically Democratic or Dem leaning Cumberland and Gloucester counties as well as Atlantic County, which he carried by above average margins in his first election in 2017.

In his victory, Phil Murphy tied with Jack Ciattarelli, both carryong 6/12 Congressional Districts. By Contrast, Murphy carried 24/40 legislative districts to Ciattarelli's 14. Down from carrying 9/12 Congressional districts, and 29/11 legislative districts in 2017

comparing the 2021 Gubernatorial election to the 2020 presidential election, we find that the general partisanship of most locations stayed roughly the same, in some places.

With the down ballot Democratic lean of South Jersey collapsing, but the down ballot republican lean in North Jersey holding strong.

By contrast, the northern section of the northeast coridor(Essex/Hudson/Southern Bergen) Retainned it's democratic down ballot nature, suggesting continued strength in that area for the Democratic party, or an area ripe for a collapse in the party's support.

In the vein of what is mentioned above 11/12 congressional Districts swung Republican in 2021 in contrast to the 2020 presidential, where 36/40 Legislative districts did the same. with the few districts that swung democratic being anchored in Hudson and Essex counties.

Taking a direct look between Murphy 2017 compared to Murphy 2021showcases that slowly, the federal lean is shifting down ballot, with Somersett and Hunterdon County swinging left compared to the 2017 election, as the rest of the state swung right.

By contrast, the South Jersey Collapse is more evident here, with greater than 14% swings in most of the counties that make up the core of south Jersey.

Furthermore, Murphy holding closser to Biden's North Jersey numbers, he ended up significantly underperforming his 2017 watermark, however, Murphy outperformed in these areas too a greater extent in 2020-21, than in 2016-17(source).

in this Vein, 3/40 Legislative districts swung to Murphy, where 1 Congressional district did, all centered around Somersett and Hunterdon counties.

Whereas the the rest of the districts swung to Ciattarelli, with the greatest swings being in the southern 1st & 2nd CDs, & the Hispanic 8th & 9th CDs. With the similar LDs LD's located in the same areas in South NJ as well as Hudson, Essex, Southern Bergen & Passaic (Patterson)

February 14, 2022

The 2013-2021 Relative Shift by legislative district is an imperfect but relatively decent way to measure the trends going on in NJ's various communities.

The inperfection comes in the noise, such as the two most hispanic districts having diferent relative shifts, with Patterson's LD 35 trending away from the Dems by -18.97%, much less than Demographically similar North Bergen Based LD 32 which trended away from the Dems by 1.55%.

Despite the aforementioned imperfections, from this map, we can actyally see the major trends that have occured in NJ throughout the 2000s. With the WWC south trending heavilly away from the Democrats, except the districts based in Co which trended significantly less so, or towards Dems

Furthermore, we can see that North Central Jersey, near Sommersett Morris & Hunterdon Counties trended significantly towards Dems from 2013-2021, slongside the Newark/South Bergen Area Trending away from Dems in the same Period.

Alongside this, we also find the trend Statich areas of Monmouth County and Central Bergen (LD-38), which while trended towards Dems, did so by less than 2%.

Febuary 27, 2022 Addendum

Due to its Bipartisan Nature - a historic first - Final NJ Legislative map for the 2020 Redistricting cycle has had many changes that benefit both Democrats and Republicans on this map to varying degrees.

The Change that most clearly benefits one party, is the Alteration of LD-4 from Murphy +2.4 to Cittarrelli +5.4, a swing of nearly 8% towards the GOP in a competitive district.

Compared to LD-4 Most of the changes are modest, R Held LD-2 LD-39 & LD-40 as well as D Held LD-11 LD-36 & LD-38 get 1-2% Bluer

Whereas D Held LD-16, and R Held LD-8, LD- 21 and LD-25 Get a point redder.

Down from 24-16 Murphy, the Legislative district composition is now 22-18 Murphy. However, one of those gains (LD-21) was already R Held and the incumbents were likely to hold already, and the other one (LD-4) the NJ GOP's most Prime pickup for the NJ GOP, has D Over-performers.

On the net however it is unlikely that the NJ GOP gain either chamber this decade with LD-14, LD-16, and LD-36, being bulwarks against the GOP with a mix of strong D Trends(14, & 16) and strong Incumbents (14,36), the GOP is just locked out of power in the NJ Leg.

Jully 24, 2022 Addendum

the 2021 NJ Gubernatorial Election by 2022-2032 New Jersey Congressional Districts. The Closeness of the overall election is a showcase of the overall strength of the NJ Dem's Map, as Murphy Carried 9/12 Districts on the new map, up from 6/12 on the old map.

This map also effectively highlights why he won, that being, despite being clobbered in the 2nd, 4th & 7th districts, preventing Ciattarelli from winning the 3rd & 5th districts & Clobbering him in the 8th & 10th let Gov. Murphy become the first Dem to win reelection since 1977.

By Percent

By Margin

Nov 29, 2023 Addendum

The 2021 NJ Gubernatorial Electionm A Contest between Incumbent Governor Phil Murphy and Former LD-16 Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli was one that resulted in the first Dem NJ Governor to be reelected in 44 years since Brendan Byrne's 1977 Reelection.

What was believed to be a sleepy election where Murphy would Cruise, the Democrat's national downturn in electoral furtunes ended up narrowing the election in the normally blue state.

To this effect, Jack Ciattarelli spending $16.3 Million to Murphy's 16.7 Million, and Focusing on the age old issues of NJ's Taxes, his charge on how Murphy's COVID-19 Safety mandates "Undermined personal liberty",

and the existing controvercy of teaching about systemic racism in the US Proved to be usefull lightning rods in helping Ciattarelli come close to winning.

These attacks were almost successful despite Phil Murphy having a moderate approval rating in state surveys, especially with regards to his COVID-19 response.

Notably, in advertisements, Ciattarelli's campaign focused on a 2019 Comment made by Mr. Murphy which was "If you’re a one-issue voter and tax rate is your issue ... we’re probably not your state.”

However, in the end, New Jersey was simply too blue for the 2021 Red wave to allow Ciattarelli to oust Phil Murphy - with the partisan lean of the state allowing him an aditional four years in the state capital.

In his victory, Murphy won 6/12 Congressional Districts to Ciattarelli's 6/12 CDs, 10/21 Counties to Ciattarelli's 11/21, and 24/40 State Legislative Districts to Ciattarelli's 16/40 SLDs

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