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The 2017 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election, a Contest between then Former Ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy, and then Incumbent Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno is one which will probably be one of the Last hurrahs for the Old NJ Coalitions
More working Class than previous NJ Coalitions, Phil Murphy ended up doing better than Hillary in the southern White Working Class counties of Camden Atlantic, Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland and Cape May, in addition to the Minority Heavy counties of Essex and Hudson.
However, Murphy Underperformed Clinton's Numbers from the Year before in the Suburban Counties of Somerset Hunterdon, Morris, Middlesex, Union, Mercer and Monmouth, showing aspects of the old GOP Suburban Coalition.
Looking at the Congressional District map, a Similar pattern Opens up with Murphy winning the working class 2nd Congressional District(Van Drew) while losing the suburban seventh congressional District (Malinowski).
However, the 5th(Gottheimer) and the 11th(Sherrill), both Suburban Seats Swung Towards Gov. Murphy between 2016 & 2017.
*Note: The lower "(R) 4-6%" Should be "(R) 2-4%"
However, most of that swing can be atribbuted to a combination of a) the northern suburbs being pissed at Guadagno for being associated with Christie and Bridgegate, and b) Sussex County Taking a Hard Left Turn from Trump's High the previous year(In addition to NY Expats migrating to the county)
Lastly, Taking a look at the Legislative District Results, Murphy Ended up winning 39 Legislative Districts as seen on the left, and he inproved most in the Working Class/Southern LDs, Northernmost urban LDs and The Lakewood District(thanks to the town of Lakewood NJ), in addition to running around even to 2-4 points ahead of Clinton in the Burlington, Passaic, & Bergen suburbs
All In all, it will be interesting to see what Murphy's New Coalition in 2021 will become, so as to see how much support he gains or loses in the North and South, and more specifically how close can he get to his 2017 Essex and Hudson Numbers
Feb 7, 2022 Addendum:
With the Release of the two Party's proposed NJ Maps, I thought it'd be a good chance to take a look at how those maps performed in the 2017 Gubernatorial election, since it is the one that most adequately shows the down ballot partisanship of most districts
The biggest differences between these maps come in LD-1, LD-2, LD-4, LD-8, LD-11, LD-16, LD-21, LD-38, LD-39, & LD-40
From these we can see that in LD-1 LD-2 & LD-4 the Dems made sure to s shore up 4 & Target 1 whilst abandoning 4, where by contrast the GOP made them in such a way where the diminishing down ballot strength that dems have in South Jersey is their only bulwark against the GOP.
Furthermore, in LD-8, the Dem's map has it at a handily (19.93% )won Murphy district, where in the GOP map, it's narrowly Guadagno (0.87%)
Lastly, in the GOP map: LD-21 & LD-39 LD are narrow Guadagno. & LD-40 slightly Murphy(5.91%) so as to slightly target LD-38(10.84%)
Where in the DEM Map LD-21 & LD-39 are Narrow Murphy. & LD-40 slightly Guadagno(5.95%) to shore up LD-38(15.89%).
[Forgot to mention LD-16, it’s the only district that’s decently Murphy(12%) won on the Dem Map, and Decently Guadagno (8.8%) won on the GOP Map]
Nov 15, 2023 Addendum
The 2017 NJ Gubernatorial Election, a contest between Former Ambassador to Germany and Goldman Sach's Banker Phil Murphy and incumbent Liutennant Governor Kim Guadagno resulted in a comfortable win for the Former State Department official
Against the backdrop of Bridgegate and the Incumbent Governor Chris Christie's Bridgegate Scanda, Beachgate Scandal, Suport for the new President Donald Trump, Guadagno never had a chance to win the governorship.
Phil Murphy, by contrast, was an unlikely victor heading in, only getting the nomination by clearing the field due to the county party endorsements he successfully forced the two other major candidates, Steve Fulop of Jersey City and Senate President Steve Sweeney out of the Race.
On the campaign Trail, Guadagno hit the traditional NJ GOP terms of campaining on lowering taxes, and warning that Murphy would raise taxes.
By Contrast, Ambassador Murphy Campaigned on Legalizing Marijuana in the State, a $15 minimum wage, Sanctuary status for immigrants and a State Bank (of which Murphy would only fail to implement the State bank)
In the end, the race wasn't close, or even seen as competitive, with Christie and Trump acting as a heavy anchor on Guadagno, Murphy won by 14%, in the Blue State of NJ
In his win, Phil murphy won 9/12 Congressional Districts to Guadagno's 3/9, 13/21 Counties to Guadagno's 8/21, and 29/40 State legislative districts to Guadagno's 11/40 SLDs
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