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The 2024 all Party Blanket Primary in Alaska's Senate District P, a proto-contest between Democratic incumbent Scott Kawasaki and Republican Challenger Leslie Hajdukovich which has resulted in Kawasaki trailing by a modest 2.7%
Whilst Kawasaki's 2024 primary showing is nearly identical to his 2022 Primary showing, this time the 17 year incumbent legislator faces a stiff unified challenge from a former Fairbanks School Board President from a well-off well connected family, in a double digit Trump Seat.
Herein, it should be noted that prior to the Primary, Hajdukovich significantly outraised and outspent Kawasaki—mostly due to the campaign finance rules that don't allow sitting legislators to fundraise durring the legislative session.
Furthermore, despite relatively decent Democratic turnout throughout the state, the Dem margin in HD-31, on the State House & Senate levels took a hit compared to both the 2022 Primary & General Elections, as well as the first round of the 2022 US House General Election. With Turnout being relatively Flat throughout.
Taking a deeper dive into the numbers, both Incumbent US House representative Mary Peltola & Kawasaki received a similar vote share in Senate District P (48.7% for Kawasaki and 48.1% for Peltola), indicating that Peltola's result in the general likely may help Kawasaki should she improve on her voteshare.
All of this (in addition to the fact that in 2022 the district Kawasaki gained 2.3% in voteshare between the primary and General) points to a strong chance for Kawasaki to grow his support come November & win reelection. As such, this race—pivotal in determing the next AK Senate coalition—will be incredibly competitive
- https://alaskabeacon.com/2024/08/21/progressive-candidates-show-unusual-strength-in-alaska-state-legislative-primaries/
- https://alaskabeacon.com/race-details/alaska-state-senate-district-p-candidates-election-2024/
- https://mustreadalaska.com/fairbanks-leslie-hajdukovich-files-for-senate-to-take-on-sen-scott-kawasaki/
- https://alaskapublic.org/2024/08/20/what-were-learning-from-early-primary-results-in-alaska-house-and-senate-races/
- https://www.adn.com/politics/alaska-legislature/2024/07/27/challengers-outraise-incumbent-lawmakers-with-a-month-to-go-before-alaskas-primary-election/
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